Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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073 FXUS64 KLIX 061120 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the short term period, and this will result in both increased deep layer subsidence and drying throughout the atmospheric column. This dry and subsident airmass will lead to skies turn mostly clear and rain chances being pushed well offshore by tomorrow. Even today into tonight, rain chances will be very limited with only a few showers expected along the immediate coast of Louisiana. The dry airmass will also support a fairly large diurnal range with highs easily climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even into the lower 90s around Baton Rouge both today and tomorrow, but lows will cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and even fall further into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s by tomorrow night. Overall, there is a small amount of spread in the ensemble guidance for the temperature forecast and have stuck with the NBM deterministic values through the short term period. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Deep layer northerly flow will continue to feed a very dry and stable airmass into the area, and this will keep skies clear and rain chances suppressed through the end of the week. PWATS will be well below average at around 0.80 to 0.90 inches through the entire long term period. Winds will be somewhat breezy from the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Milton passes through the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico on its way to the Florida peninsula, but do not expect winds to be strong enough to warrant any type of wind advisories. Weak cold air advection into the area will push temperatures closer to average with highs expected to climb into the low to mid 80s. The dry air and clear skies will allow overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 50s across inland zones and the low to mid 60s for areas along the coast. Once again, the spread in the ensemble members is small and have stuck with NBM deterministic values for the temperature forecast through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 A dry and stable airmass across the area will keep VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals. Winds will remain from the northeast through the period. The strongest winds will be at NEW where winds of 13 to 15 knots with higher gusts can be expected. Otherwise, winds will be closer to 10 knots today. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Currently VFR across the region and should prevail through the TAF cycle. Northeasterly to easterly winds will continue decrease overnight after we decouple and then increase back to 10-20kts by this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 As Tropical Storm Milton moves to the south and east of the waters this week, increased winds and seas will impact the open Gulf waters and even the sounds. East and northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots can be expected in these waters from today through Thursday before conditions begin easing on Friday as Milton moves into the Atlantic and the pressure gradient across the Gulf decreases. These winds will help to produce wind waves of 5 to 7 feet in the open waters and 3 to 5 feet in the sounds. However, the addition of swells emanating from Tropical Storm Milton will push seas in the open Gulf waters to 8 to 12 feet and in the sounds to 4 to 6 feet. The tidal lakes will be protected from these swells with wind driven waves of 2 to 3 feet expected. The other concern will be the potential for coastal flooding during each high tide cycle through Thursday morning on east facing shores. This will be due to the combination of persistent east-northeast winds and the increased swell moving into the waters. Coastal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground level can be expected for east facing shores when high tide is occuring. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 66 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 90 69 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 87 68 89 64 / 0 10 0 0 MSY 86 74 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 70 87 66 / 10 10 0 0 PQL 85 69 88 65 / 20 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ069-070-076- 078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG