164
FXUS64 KLIX 092318
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
618 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

An upper level ridge encompasses much of the center of the country
with troughing on the east and western sides of it. The CWA is right
between the center of that ridge axis and trough to the east. A
shortwave embedded within the eastern trough will push southeastward
into the far southeastern US near the Atlantic coast over the next
couple days. This will bring a nice drop in temps and humidity to
the region with lows and highs slightly below normal. Not a drop of
rain during this timeframe which is nice for those who recently had
5-10" of rain but unfortunate for other portions of the local area
that have been seeing much lower rain amounts recently.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The forecast through this weekend is generally the same. An upper low
rotating eastward around the northern periphery of the ridge will
track southeastward across the Great Lakes. This will help keep the
current shortwave near Florida in place while it deepens slightly.
What that`ll do locally is maintain those fall-like temps and keep
moisture levels down.

Going into next week, we start to lose those cooler temps. Both
upper lows situated to the east will shift into the western
Atlantic. This will allow for the upper ridge axis centered between
the Rockies and the Mississippi River Valley to move eastward, right
over the CWA by mid week. In response to those increasing 500mb
heights, temps will moderate around 3 to 5 degrees. That puts highs
into the mid to maybe upper 80s. This overarching pattern will carry
through the remainder of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Northerly winds will continue to usher in a very dry and very
stable airmass into the area. This will keep prevailing VFR
conditions in place at all of the terminals. Winds will turn
breezy from the north tonight at NEW and MSY as increased thermal
mixing over the warmer lake waters allows for stronger winds aloft
to transport down to the surface. North winds of 15 to 20 knots
will develop by 06z and persist through the end of the forecast
period at these terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A cold front moved into the coastal waters last night and surface
high pressure is quickly building in behind it. The pressure
gradient will tighten across the coastal waters as weak persistent
low pressure over the southeastern Gulf and large area of high
pressure to the north and northeast dominate the region over the
next few days. Winds have weakened a fair amount this morning in
response to slight weakening in the pressure gradient as a shortwave
moving southeastward through the parent upper level trough
approaches the base of this feature.  Wind will begin to increase
once again this evening with strong northeast winds continuing
through Saturday morning as the base of the trough digs farther
southeast. Winds will generally be around 15 to 20 kts with frequent
gusts abv 20 kts. An Exercise Caution headline was added to fill the
gap between last night`s and tonight`s Small Craft Advisories. This
upcoming SCY will continue through Saturday morning for all of the
waters again. Winds will finally relax during the day Saturday as
high pressure builds in more.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  61  84  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  63  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  70  84  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  65  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  63  82  58  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME