324
FXUS64 KLIX 072328 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
528 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Fog did develop and had impacts across the region and with no real
airmass change why would tonight be any different and for most of
the area it likely won`t but there are some subtle changes that
may begin to make fog a little more stubborn to develop. Other
than the fog concern there are no other real impact`s expected
through the weekend and for the beginning of the work week but we
should finally see things become a little more active moving
through next week.

So lets cut the fat right here. We have issued another dense fog
and marine dense fog advisory for tonight. The marine zones and
immediate coastal zones should have little difficulty seeing fog
but the question begin to arise as we get farther inland. The
dense fog advisory goes into effect at 4z mainly for areas south
of I-12 and across coastal MS. A very humid airmass remains in
place in the LL with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s over most
of the area. The water temps right offshore and along the coast
are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There is slightly
higher moisture a little farther offshore and as that transports
north should aid in the development of marine/advection fog in the
near shore waters and right along the coast quickly this evening.
That said like the overnight forecast mentioned with the dewpoints
and water temps relatively close the advection fog will not be
overly impressive and able to surge inland. So as for any aid from
radiation fog that looks less likely. The problem is that winds
will begin to respond to a developing surface low across the
southern Plains overnight tonight. sfc winds will remain on the
light side but h925 and h85 winds will increase to around 15-20
kts. This is more than likely to lead to a rather thick stratus
deck, especially across the northwest. This will drastically
hamper the production of radiation fog. For widespread dense fog
concerns there will need to be a combination of both radiation and
advection fog. The two factors that could be the biggest
contributors to fog tonight is winds remaining lighter than
anticipated in the LL allowing for better radiational cooling and
any smoke for local fires. Burning is occurring again today with
the most noticeable fire being just north of Larose. This does
appear to be a small fire and given how warm we have gotten today
and what looks like a rather light ignition this fire may not have
enough time or area to create enough smoke to have a major impact.
Perhaps extremely close to it the possibility of Superfog is
possible but this is out around nothing and maybe one road even
close to it. So at this time luckily we are not seeing a lot of
fires out there aiding in fog production but there are likely some
more much smaller local ones. So how fast do the LL winds begin
to pick up. If we can cool fast enough this evening and continue
before stratus starts to develop then dense fog will not have a
problem developing over most of the area. Even if a layer of
stratus develops as expected it will likely be around 200-400 ft
off the deck and as we continue to cool it will likely build down.
But if that deck begins closer to 700-1k ft off the deck then fog
may really be confined to the coast.

Nothing else of impact outside of fog through the weekend and fog
is possible again tomorrow night and may actually have a better
chance of developing as winds should be lighter through the
boundary layer and LL. This should allow for better radiational
cooling and thus radiational fog but one other problem is we are
going to continue to be warm and with each day we continue to warm
the water up right along the coast and that will start to hurt the
advection fog potential. That said it looks like at least one more
night of fog and likely dense fog.

For your Sunday forecast...enjoy whatever you have planned. Zonal
flow aloft will likely have multiple weak impulses moving through
the region but with a boundary that was associated with the
developing sfc low tonight stalling north of the area any real
rain chances will remain just off to our north. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The new work starts quiet initially but then things begin to
become more active with multiple rain chances. Medium range models
indicate the flow becoming more WSWrly or SWrly through next week
with multiple disturbance traversing the Lower MS Valley and
multiple surface low associated with them. The biggest problem
right now is timing and location. The surface low will develop
along the old boundary that will stall north of the area Sunday.
The problem with the WSW/SW flow aloft and remaining that way is
the boundary parallels the flow and the surface low are weak and
quickly move to the ENE. This does not provide much push to the
front as it either remains stalled to our north or slowly drifts
south. A few things about this. Wherever that boundary lays up
there will be quite a bit of rain and at this time it looks like
it could be just north of the area across northern LA, central
MS, and into northern AL. But if that boundary is a touch farther
south then some portions of the CWA could see a good bit of rain
next week. We should still see some rain beginning late Tuesday
with a few bouts of storms through the rest of the week. At this
time it doesn`t appear to be a big severe risk but with
increasing instability as we continue to remain warm and humid
one or two of these disturbances could bring a round or two of
strong to severe weather across the Lower MS Valley. Something to
just keep an eye on through the weekend and into next week. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Mostly VFR across the region late this afternoon, however, like
days prior, low stratus and fog will once again develop
overnight. GPT will experience the lower VIS/CIGs first and then
the rest of the region will follow. The more dense fog looks to be
along the MS Gulf Coast and southshore...although BTR and MCB
will also see some reductions by early morning. Otherwise, stratus
and fog will mix out mid to late morning respectively. Low level
flow will remain southerly and increase a bit overnight and
especially during the day on Saturday, but should hang around 10kts
mostly. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Southerly winds may take a step up tonight and tomorrow as a sfc
low moves across the central US but no headlines from winds
expected. High pressure quickly reestablishes itself late
Saturday across the eastern Gulf. Fog is expected to be an issue
for some coastal waters mainly in the nearshore waters and
especially the Miss River nightly. Most if not all of the Miss
River will have dense fog again tonight through mid morning
tomorrow. A dense fog advisory is in place for all protected and
nearshore water. There is the possibility that some marine areas
hold this fog for a large portion of the day again. Marine
roadways will be impacted as well. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  81  62  79 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  65  83  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  63  81  61  81 /   0  10   0  10
MSY  64  80  64  79 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  61  74  59  75 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  63  79  61  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Saturday
     for LAZ046-056>060-064>070-076>080-082-084>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ530-534-538-
     555.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ532-536-557.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ550-552.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Saturday
     for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ534-538-555.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ536-557.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ552.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB