Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
223 FXUS64 KLIX 241709 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday Night) Issued at 1208 PM AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Our region remains under dry northwesterly flow aloft as a broad scale trough resides over the eastern half of the country. A surface front has moved mostly south of the landbased zones and has helped develop nocturnal convection across the marine zones. Overall, the dry conditions behind the front should keep POPs in check, especially along and north of I10 with any shower or storm activity expected to be along the far southern Louisiana coastlines. Although we are under a dry northwesterly flow, with the lower POPs the temperatures will be on the warmer side with still some relatively higher heights around and offshore flow supporting the warmer conditions. That said, drier conditions will help limit the need for any heat headlines through the period. Overnight lows will be around average for late August with southwest MS perhaps being slightly below average with some locations dropping into the upper 60s during the overnight. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The long term begins with a broad scale trough over the eastern portion of the country. A surface front is forecast to pass through the CWFA later Tuesday and into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, low-end POPs will be there, but this will quickly be reduced behind the front as much drier air moves into the region through much of the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures will be more comfortable behind the front. Most of the region will see upper 80s and lower 90s, so still summer, but lower RH values will feel a bit more comfortable. Overnight, north of I10/12 temperatures will drop into the middle and upper 60s from midweek through late week. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Convection chances/coverage will remain limited this afternoon. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the cycle and surface winds will be mostly light and variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Winds will eventually transition to a more northeast or easterly direction with time behind a cold frontal boundary by midweek. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain mostly benign. Although there could be slightly higher winds prior to the frontal passage. Cautionary headlines are not out of the question. Otherwise, outside of the frontal passage, winds should remain less than 15kts outside of convection...where winds and seas may briefly become elevated. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 94 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 71 96 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 71 94 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 77 95 77 93 / 0 10 0 20 GPT 73 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 71 94 68 91 / 10 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF