172
FXUS64 KLIX 190934
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
334 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The arctic front has moved through most areas this morning and will
leave the coast in a few hours. Temps will fall for a while this
morning but will tack on a few degrees with full sun this afternoon
but that won`t be the highs for today. The highs for today have
already been achieved just after midnight this morning. The
afternoon max temp may come close for several locations though.
Temps will quickly cascade once the sun sets today and temps should
fall to around 20 north to near 30 at the coast for lows tonight.
Most areas should reach the 40s Mon but will quickly fall again for
another strong freeze Mon night. The formation of a sfc low will
occur Mon near or at the lower TX coast. This low will be
responsible for the wx that we will begin to see late Mon night. The
sfc low will throw a good bit of moisture into the almost zonal
flowing upper jet. This process should start over south TX early Mon
evening and rapidly spread east Monday night. This should reach our
area around 3a and spread to the eastern portion of the area around
daylight or just after. The snow will start out light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

CAA will be strongest today through Wed with a modifying trend
starting Wed but this won`t be a quick modification but tack on a
few degrees each day bringing us back into the 40s for highs for Wed
and possibly some 50s for Thu. Temps for Tuesday look good in the
NBM which keeps the northern half of the area at or below freezing
through the day. The snow will start out light early Tue but as a
short wave begins to approach, this will change as it will help
produce more lift in tandem with the sfc low cuasing a wide swath of
snow to develop with a few areas of sleet as warm noses intersect
the cold air column. Closer to the coast, there could be an all out
mix of wintry precip of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some ice
accumulations could occur with this but we will keep it lower than
1/4 inch. But this will depend on how far north warm air can be
forced. For now we will keep the winter storm watch, but this will
likely be replaced with a winter storm warning later today. We will
keep numbers very similar to previous fcast but there will be some
snow bursts along the wide swath of snow that breaks out and these
burst can quickly cause accumulations to jump in those areas. The
snow will tapper off overnight Tue and should be east of the area
around or just after midnight Tue/Wed morning. With all the wintry
precip on the ground, temps will be hard pressed to get out of the
30s for Wed. This means that not all of this ice and snow will melt
fully and could remain in most areas especially in shady locations.
If is expected to occur, winter weather headlines may be extended
into or through Wed. Thu we should begin to modify quite nicely into
the 40s...yeah still cold but the snow should be gone or at least
most of it. Friday should see a few 50s around but we won`t get
fully in to the 50s until Sat. Basically cold the remainder of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

There are some isolated locations of MVFR cigs this morning but most
areas will be VFR. These cigs will move out rapidly this morning and
all terminals will be VFR the remainder of this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

NW winds will rise to around 25kt today and become NE Mon as arctic
air plunges over the northern gulf. The small craft advisory will
remain and has also been extended into early Tue. NE winds should
rise to sustained gale force by Tue and a gale watch may be issued
for this over the next few days. The sfc low causing this will move
east of the coastal waters Wed allowing winds to ease with headlines
dropping later in the day Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  19  37  21 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  47  24  42  26 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  48  23  42  26 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  48  28  40  30 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  48  24  40  27 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  52  23  43  25 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-
     076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE