Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
711 FXUS64 KLIX 101153 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 653 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 After seeing PWATs below 1.75 the last day or so, we will see moisture start to return to the area on Sunday with PWATs already surging up above 2 inches by the afternoon. This comes as we see winds turn to onshore flow later in the day Sunday and remain that way through the forecast period. While Sunday won`t see quite as high of PoPs as the rest of the period, isolated showers and storms are likely to fire across the area, especially for areas south of I- 12 where PoPs are in the 50-70% range. Monday can expect somewhat similar conditions as Sunday, but PWATs are looking to be even higher as that onshore flow continues to surge moisture in. PoPs for the entire forecast area are in the 60- 80% range mostly throughout the afternoon hours. WOuld not be shocked to see a couple storms on the stronger side, possibly up to severe, with locally gusty winds and heavy downpours. Temperatures won`t se much of a change through most of the period with scattered to widespread convection each day. Afternoon highs peak in the low 90s with heat indices peaking around 105F, below any && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 Most of the long term period won`t be too much of a change from Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday may end up being the wettest days of the week for a good chunk of the area, with PoPs in the 70-80% range. Once again a couple of these storms have the chance to be locally strong to even severe with locally gusty winds and heavy downpours. Towards the end of the week we finally start to see the PoPs forecast start to trend down some, into the 50-60% range which is pretty typical of a summer day down here. Temperatures will also tick up, with afternoon highs closer to the mid 90s for most areas. By the end of the week, if rain chances stay on the lower side, may end up close to heat headline criteria. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Terminals were VFR at forecast issuance time, although scattered SHRA/TSRA were just offshore to the east and south. Main concern to aviation operations today will be TSRA, with the main question being how quickly the storms offshore progress northward. At least isolated TSRA could reach KHUM/KMSY/KNEW during the morning hours, with more widespread convection by midday as convective temperatures in the mid and upper 80s are reached. MVFR ceilings with any convection area pretty much certain, with IFR visibilities and gusty winds also possible. The "least" likely terminals for convection will be KMCB and KBTR, but there`s enough of a threat there to at least justify PROB30. While most convection should weaken or dissipate around sunset, there could be a few storms beyond that point, which later forecast will fine tune the locations on. Could also see coastal redevelopment around sunrise Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 Winds and waves will remain mostly calm through the forecast period, with winds staying below 15kts each day. The only marine concerns through the forecast period are related to convection. Winds and waves will be locally higher around any thunderstorms that develop. The early morning hours have the best chances of marine convection each day with some storms on the stronger side bringing higher winds and seas. convective coverage is expected to increase heading into the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 73 91 73 / 40 20 60 20 BTR 92 75 92 75 / 50 20 70 20 ASD 90 74 90 73 / 60 30 70 30 MSY 92 79 92 78 / 70 30 80 30 GPT 90 76 89 75 / 60 30 70 40 PQL 90 74 89 74 / 50 30 70 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...RW MARINE...HL