187
FXUS64 KLCH 161616
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and more humid conditions expected Thursday through
  Sunday

- Dry conditions for the rest of the week

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return early for Easter
  Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Clear and pleasant conditions are ongoing. Expect much of the same
today with high pressure in charge. Warmth and moisture will
return later this evening.

11

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Weather maps show a cold front near the coast with high pressure
behind the front. Upper air maps show ridging building over Texas.
This synoptic setup will keep our skies clear and lead to some
beautiful weather for the rest of the week.

A combination of ridging and moisture return will lead to a steady
increase in temperatures and dew points across the CWA, with highs
in the mid to upper 80s while lows will remain stubbornly in the
mid-60s. Other than the possibility of some patchy fog in the
mornings, no active weather impacts are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

As we move into the weekend, our synoptic pattern will begin to
change as an upper-level low moves across the southern Rockies. As
the low deepens and digs south, surface high pressure near
Florida will lead to a tightening pressure gradient and robust
moisture advection across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Both the GFS
and ECMWF ensemble tables show meridional winds in the 99th
percentile this weekend as these two systems interact.

As mentioned in the previous AFD, temperatures and humidity will
be very high on Saturday and Sunday with Saturday night`s low
possibly breaking warm low temperature records. This will be due
to multiple factors, including compressional heating from an
approaching front, a low overcast overnight cloud deck, and
robust warm air advection from the Gulf. These factors will all
work to keep our minimum temperatures near the 70s on Saturday
night. These warm temperatures will be felt more near the coast
with a 75% chance that our low temps will stay above 70 on
Saturday night in Lake Charles and Beaumont compared to 20% in
Alexandria. For the rest of the extended forecast, temperatures
will return to seasonal norms with highs in the low to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

As the longwave trough moves eastward, we will see widespread
convection across the CWA with showers and thunderstorms possible
on Saturday night but more likely early Easter Sunday. Depending
on the location of embedded shortwave troughs in the main flow, we
could have a severe threat on Sunday, but for now the best
dynamics look to remain north of Alexandria and Jasper.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the TAF period. Light winds will
become southernly in the afternoon. In addition an overcast cloud
deck will being to form overnight and may lower to MVFR levels
around 12Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  57  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  81  64  81  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  81  62  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  81  65  82  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14