562
FXUS64 KLCH 081812
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
112 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-An upper level low and deep moisture will support increased
 diurnal convection through tomorrow with some locally torrential
 downpours possible.

-The upper level low will weaken on Thursday as it moves into
 Texas. A Saharan Air Layer moving across may help to decrease
 convection on Thursday into Friday.

-Flat upper level ridge does not strengthen until early next week,
 therefore typical summertime pattern is expected over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Upper level low just off the the southwest Louisiana coast is
moving gradually to the west. Earlier convection from this morning
has worked over the airmass with remnant stratiform rain over
lower Acadiana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
around the periphery of the earlier outflow boundary over
southeast Texas and central Louisiana. GOES PWAT showing around 2
inches for those locations, so some locally heavy downpours will
be possible with the storms that develop. Activity is expected to
weaken after sunset.

On Wednesday, the upper level low will be located just off the
southeast Texas coast. Could see another round of nocturnal
showers and storms before sunrise over the southeast Texas and
extreme southwest Louisiana coast that will try to push inland.
Then activity will take a break before redeveloping again in the
afternoon. Again PWAT around 2 inches is progged with mean
relative humidity above 70 percent so some torrential downpours
again possible and WPC has southeast Texas and just over into the
west central and southwest Louisiana highlighted in a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall that may lead to flooding or between 5
and 14 percent chance of flash flooding.

Thursday is interesting. The upper level low moves into Texas and
becomes stretched and weakened. However, a basic weakness aloft
remains with high PWAT air. That would normally mean diurnal
convection. However, dust models show a Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
moving into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana during the
day. Which in effect would tend to decrease shower activity. Went
with NBM pops for now, but they could be on the high side and may
need adjusting downward as we get closer to Thursday.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A relative weakness or a flat ridge looks to be hanging around
into the weekend. This will allow for a daily chance of mainly
afternoon showers or storms with typical summertime heat.

By early next week, indications are for a stronger upper level
ridge that will decrease rain chances and increase the heat.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Air mass for the most part has been worked over from earlier
convection. Therefore, mainly light rains remain over KARA and
KLFT terminals. The remaining terminal may see scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon with daytime heating. The KBPT
terminal looks to have the best chance for this so will go with a
tempo ground until 08/22z to cover this.

Activity will decrease this evening with mainly fair conditions
overnight. Some patchy fog with MVFR conditions will be possible
at KAEX after 08/10z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Weak surface high will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf
and into the coastal waters this week. This will keep a mainly
light southerly flow in place with relatively low seas. An upper
level disturbance will allow for widespread showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Then scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible
each day through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Southerly low level flow to continue through the end of the week.
This will allow a moist air mass to persist with minimum afternoon
relative humidity values above 60 percent. A relative weakness
aloft will keep a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  93  72  93 /  20  70  30  60
LCH  76  91  77  92 /  30  70  30  70
LFT  75  90  75  90 /  20  70  20  70
BPT  74  90  75  91 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07