Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
275 FXUS64 KLCH 241123 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 623 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak frontal boundary will linger offshore through the early part of the week. Rain chances will remain elevated near the coast, with dry conditions elsewhere. - Another weak cold front then moves through on Tuesday, bringing a slight increase in moisture/rain chances for mainly the southern half of the region that will persist through the later half of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped along the northern Gulf Coast tonight, while aloft a trough extends from the northern Plains/Great Lakes to the southeastern US. Drier air has begun to work its way south into the forecast area over the last several hours, with the OOZ LCH sounding showing a PWAT of 1.86"(near the daily mean), down from 2.07" yesterday. Granted, this is just a tad drier but luckily for us further dry air advection is expected overnight and throughout today as the upper level trough continues to gradually amplify over the eastern US. Forecast soundings show PWATs falling to near the 25th by this evening, while NBM show minimum RH values in the 35-50% range this afternoon. Therefore it`s looking like it`ll be a dry but warm end to the weekend, with zero rain chances, lower humidity, and highs topping out around 92-95 degrees. Dry air lingers throughout Monday, with pretty much a rinse and repeat of today`s forecast on tap. Only difference will be it may just be a tad warmer, but lower dewpoints/RH values and near-zero rain chances will continue. Monday evening into Tuesday, the aforementioned upper trough begins to retreat northward slightly, opening the door for weak ridging to take its place across the northern Gulf Coast. At the same time, surface winds briefly turn a bit more SErn bringing a bit of warm Gulf air inland, particularly for areas south of I-10. However, just as quickly as moisture return gets going it will come to an end, as another cold front looks to slide south through the CWA on Tuesday. Tuesday will be a bit of a mixed bag forecast, with low end rain chances expected as the front moves through (particularly for areas along and south of I-10). In addition, an increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures in check, with highs in the low to mid 90s on tap. Drier air slowly filters in through Tues afternoon but more significantly overnight into Wednesday, with lows potentially falling into the mid 60s for our northern most zones and into the lower 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Wednesday through Friday, the synoptic pattern overhead remain rather stagnant as a frontal boundary lingers offshore at the surface, while aloft we remain between upper ridging over TX/the Gulf and troughing over the E/SE CONUS. The lingering boundary will provide some focus for showers and storms, with generally 20-30 POPs along and south of I-10 each day. The upper trough to our east/northeast will keep drier air across CENLA through the period, with dewpoints generally in the 60s, while elsewhere dewpoints will be rather average, ranging from the low to mid 70s. Temperature wise, highs will run just below normal, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Friday into the weekend, whatever remains of the stalled boundary in the Gulf begins to lift northward, bringing an increase in moisture across the area. Rain chances ramp up a bit Friday night into Saturday and remain at least slightly elevated through the weekend. Fortunately, this does looks like it will keep temperatures below average for a bit longer however, with moisture increasing it will start to feel rather sticky outside by this point. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Drier air is expected to continue to filter into the forecast area today from the north. This should bring about mainly VFR conditions with light northeast winds. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Light offshore flow is expected to persist through the next couple of days, followed by a more east to southeast flow through the mid/later part of the work week. A stalled boundary in the coastal waters, along with a second front that will move into the area on Tuesday, will keep a chance for mainly scattered convection in place across the coastal waters throughout much of the forecast period. Light winds and low seas are expected away from convection. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Drier air will continue to filter into the area today, with min RH values in the mid 30s/low 40s inland to mid 40s/low 50s along and south of I-10 expected this afternoon. A similar forecast is on tap for Monday, followed by a slight increase in moisture Tuesday. Min RH values are expected to range from the mid 40s to low 60s through the mid/late week. No rainfall is expected through Monday, with low end rain chances returning Tues-Thurs, particularly along and south of I-10. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 69 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10 LFT 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 BPT 94 72 94 75 / 10 0 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...07