Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
204 FXUS64 KLCH 120521 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A mild and very dry forecast is anticipated through most of the coming week. Expect warm, above average temperature days but with cool fall-feeling evenings. - With low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 With the current pattern in place, the forecast is basically a persistence forecast. At the surface, high pressure sits over Louisiana with light winds and clear skies. Aloft, high pressure is located to our east and continues to pull in dry continental air. This dry airmass is keeping our skies clear with PWATs below the 25th percentile. The lack of cloud cover, moisture, and light winds will help maximize the temperature range during the day and night, with highs near 90 dropping into the 50s inland and the low 60s along the coast. Rain chances will be zero through the middle of next week. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure will remain in place for most of the work week. This high will be strong for this time of the year with 500 mb heights above the 90th percentile. Near the end of the week, the high will begin to weaken and lift north as low pressure digs south into the Rockies. At the end of the week, low-end rain chances will return to the forecast as high pressure to our east will cause our low-level moisture to increase. In the upper-levels low pressure will move across the plains bringing a front across the region near the end of the week. Models have very little consistency with this feature and more monitoring will be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure will lead to clear skies and light winds. There is a small signal for fog in the morning at BPT and AEX and there is tempo group for MVFR conditons near sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Winds and waves will remain benign with light winds from the ENE. Rain chances will be near zero until the end of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Very dry conditions, warm weather, and low minimum RH values will cause concerning fire weather each afternoon through the end of the week. High temperatures will be close to 90 degrees each afternoon while minimum RH will be between 25 and 35%. Light winds will be the main limiting factor for fires to spread but with how dry it is fires that do spark could still spread rapidly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 86 63 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 85 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 87 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14