268
FXUS64 KLCH 042329
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A coastal low is currently situated near the S TX coastline, with
an associated warm front extending eastward over coastal LA.
Persistent showers and thunderstorms have been observed and are
expected to continue through the day and overnight as the warm
front advances northward. Meanwhile, a cold front is progressing
southward through the Central and Southern Plains. This boundary
is anticipated to move through the forecast area and into the GoM
by late morning to early afternoon tomorrow, followed by a surface
high migrating southward over the Northern Plains.

As the cold front passes, precip will come to an end, with a
tightened pressure gradient at the base of the advancing high
resulting in elevated northerly winds. Current model guidance
suggests that wind speeds are unlikely to necessitate a Wind
Advisory, however this will need to be monitored for areas south
of the I-10 corridor. By Friday, wind speeds will taper and shift
from northerly to northeasterly and eventually easterly as the
surface high broadens and moves into the SE CONUS.

Temperatures will undergo a marked cooling trend in the wake of
the cold front. Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the
upper 50s to near 60, with overnight lows plummeting into the
upper 20s to 30s. While no wintry precip is anticipated and no new
Freeze Watches or Warnings are expected, frost formation is
likely across interior portions of SETX and CenLA. Highs on Friday
will remain subdued, struggling to exceed the mid 50s, with
overnight lows ranging from the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The extended forecast period begins this weekend with a return to
wetter conditions. A weak trough is forecast to redevelop along
the southern TX/MX border, with a weak warm front extending into
the GoM. Enhanced southerly flow will facilitate the advection of
ample moisture into the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will gradually spread across Texas, becoming more widespread and
intense from Saturday morning into the afternoon.

WPC has highlighted our SETX Counties in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall on Saturday, increasing to a Slight Risk on
Sunday for nearly the entirety of the forecast area as rainfall
coverage and intensity expand eastward in response to an upper
level disturbance moving into the Southern Plains. Rain chances
will taper significantly by Monday and Tuesday, though isolated
showers cannot be ruled out ahead of another cold front
anticipated to traverse the region early to mid next week.

Temperature trends will be variable through the extended period.
Highs on Saturday will approach seasonal normals, ranging from the
50s to 60s, with lows in the 40s to 50s. Sunday and Monday will
see a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching the 60s to mid
70s and overnight lows remaining elevated in the 50s to 60s. The
arrival of the next cold front is expected to bring temperatures
back to near or below seasonal averages by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Ceilings will lower tonight and potentially become LIFR at some
terminals during the early morning hours. Ceilings will lift
through Thursday afternoon from west to east. Rain and
thunderstorms can also be expected tonight. Light SE winds will
become NW tonight and then gusty by afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

An upper level disturbance is expected to move across the area,
strengthening a surface trough of low pressure off the Texas
coast. This will keep moderate southeast winds across the 20 to 60
nautical mile marine zones, with increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms. A strong cold front is expected to push south
across the coastal waters Thursday, bringing and end to the
precipitation and offshore flow through Friday.Enhanced offshore
flow could warrant another Small Craft Advisory issuance. East to
southeast winds resume Saturday as the surface high shifts east.
A stronger upper level trough is expected to approach the region
Saturday night though Sunday, significantly increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  58  27  50 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  57  65  35  53 /  90  20   0   0
LFT  58  65  35  53 /  90  30   0   0
BPT  59  67  38  55 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05