Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
896 FXUS64 KLCH 211128 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 628 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A trough will move into the forecast area today and linger into Friday bringing a decent chance for thunderstorms. With the expected high moisture content of the atmosphere, heavy rainfall will be possible. - A building high pressure system over the Mountain West is expected to bring a dry northwest flow into the forecast area over the weekend with lower rain chances and less humid conditions. - Another weak cold front may enter the area by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 An upper ridge is centered near the four corners region this morning while a trough is digging into the eastern sections of the country. The trough is helping to lift Hurricane Erin north and out to sea in the Atlantic. The light northerly flow around the upper ridge over the central sections of the CONUS will drive a weak frontal boundary into the northern gulf coast today. Moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary and very modest synoptic lift may produce storms by Thursday afternoon capable of excessive rain which could lead to isolated flooding. The frontal boundary will remain stalled along the coast Friday and into Saturday. Numerous diurnal storms are anticipated again for Friday, however a drier airmass will begin to work into the region by Saturday. Pops will be elevated along the coast and drop off farther inland Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 The drier airmass will linger across the area Sunday into early next week, however isolated diurnal storms will be remain possible. By the middle of next week, yet another short wave will dive south across the central sections of the country. This may drive a reinforcing front south into the northern gulf coast. While its still too early, guidance indicates temperatures may fall slightly below normal at the end of the period and beyond, but don`t break out the pumpkin spice or gumbo pots yet, its still only August. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall across central Louisiana today providing support for widespread thunderstorms from midday through the evening. Storms will continue through the night, but won`t be as numerous. Storms will be capable of producing periods of torrential rainfall that could result in rapid changes in visibility. Away from storms, light northerly winds will prevail through the period. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A trough will move toward the coast from the north on Thursday stalling along the coast on Friday. This trough will help bring an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms during any time of day through Friday. More typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late night and early morning, and again in the afternoon will be in the forecast over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A weak frontal boundary will move into the region today. Moisture will increase further as this trough moves into the region with minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent and the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms may produce torrential downpours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 72 91 69 / 60 30 40 10 LCH 92 74 90 74 / 70 50 70 40 LFT 93 74 89 74 / 70 40 70 30 BPT 93 74 90 74 / 70 50 70 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...66