552
FXUS64 KLCH 300847
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
347 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Currently the upper trough is still over KY with the base of it
extending down to the western Gulf Coast States with an area of
high pressure aloft about the West Coast to 4 Corners States. Over
the period, the trough will slowly weaken and the ridge will ever
so slightly expanding eastward.

Drier air is set in place with PoPs inland below 10% for the
entire short term. Dewpoints will creep up along the coast in the
lower 70s, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. This will help it feel
not as summery. Climatologically speaking, we are closer to end
of August temp normals than we are end of September normals.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

A mid-week cold front will usher in a more seasonal pattern from
Thursday into the weekend, with minimal day to day changes expected
throughout the long term period. Early Thursday, said cold front
will be to our south/southeast becoming increasingly washed out
while high pressure meanders to our north/northeast. As the boundary
gradually dissipates on Thursday it will open the door for a slug of
deeper moisture to its south to spread inland across the northern
Gulf Coast. This will result in low end rain chances (~20-40%) each
afternoon from Thursday through at least Saturday, mainly along and
south of I-10, with the best chances likely across lower Acadiana
each day. Most of this precip will likely be fairly scattered in
nature, as the better moisture/rain chances will be displaced off to
our east. Otherwise, highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90
each afternoon while overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to
low 70s, which is near or just slightly above seasonal norms for
early October.

The end of the long term period may potentially bring another cold
front, although timing is in question at this point and the boundary
may not arrive until just beyond the end of the forecast period.
Regardless, expect seasonal temps and minimal rain chances to
continue until its arrival, with a shot of drier and likely cooler
air arriving in its wake sometime early next week.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Some patchy fog may form in the early morning but little to no
impacts are expected. VFR CIGs with little to no cloud cover with
light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Winds will remain light and somewhat variable early next week
until passage of a cold front brings elevated offshore flow by
midweek. Conditions are expected to remain dry until rain chances
return late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  67  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  90  70  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  71  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  93  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...14