188
FXUS64 KLCH 061208
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
708 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas where thunderstorms move over repeatedly may experience
  flash flooding through early morning hours today.

- Coastal Flood Advisory for Calcasieu and Orange will continue
  into 7 AM Today.

- Much cooler and drier air will move in behind the front tonight.
  Highs in the 60s SUN and MON. No freeze conditions expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Generally at this point, light rainfall is ongoing across the
region. The only exception is a line of blusterous thunderstorms
now develop across deep southeast Texas. This appears to be taking
place along a compression boundary where the front is arriving
within the 850 mb layer. So far, these storms are packed with
lightning and could materialize some hail and stronger wind gusts
as this line moves slowly to the east. Hopefully no real severe
risk can manifest from this line as the environment has been
somewhat worked over, and cooler air has already filtered in at
the surface layer.

Cooler air is already working into the region. Expect much much
cooler conditions by morning and through Monday. High`s in the 60s
and lows in the 40s will be a nice reprieve from the deep heat and
humidity we`ve dealt with the last several days.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

An extended period of dry and quiet weather is in store as high
pressure primarily maintains control of the east and southeast US
this week.

Temps return to the 70s on Wednesday and will warm slightly
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Overrunning showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing
across southeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi behind the cold
front. Surface winds have turned to the north and much cooler (but
not drier) airmass has arrived to the region. Morning sounding
data indicates the lowest 700 mb is completely saturated and thus,
low clouds will persist.

Deep dry air will not arrive to clear out cloud cover until, at
earliest, daytime Monday. In the meantime, lower CIGs due to
lingering rainfall and moisture will prevail over the period.
Within showers, heights to 500 to 900 feet are being observed.
Outside of showers, low MVFR heights can be expected, with a minor
improvement to 2000 to 3000 feet possible this afternoon. Expect
ceilings to fall again after sundown tonight.

Winds have fully turned to the north behind the front, and this
northern vector will prevail. As daytime heating commences this
morning, these winds should pick up and sustain to roughly 15
knots; slightly higher gusts possible. Not expecting speeds
anything like what we`ve seen in recent days. Winds will diminish
after 00Z / sunset tonight.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Winds will quickly shift to the northwest behind the front tonight
with moderate offshore flow set to prevail from early Sunday
through Monday morning. The residual high swells and wave heights
from the south meeting these north winds will create very short
wave periods, resulting in steep seas after the frontal passage
for most of the day Sunday through Monday morning. Winds and seas
will gradually subside Monday afternoon and Tuesday as the surface
high settles over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  47  62  41 /  30  10  10   0
LCH  65  48  64  44 /  20  10  10   0
LFT  67  50  62  44 /  40  20  10   0
BPT  65  46  67  45 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11