126
FXUS64 KLCH 161952
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
252 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to Major heat risk is noted through the weekend as a
  prolonged period of above normal hot and humid weather will
  persist.

- An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain
  out of the forecast into early next week.

- Trends show a cold front moving through next Tuesday
  night/Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along
  with cooler nights and less humid days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A warm and humid Friday afternoon is ongoing across the forecast
area as we remain entrenched beneath upper level ridging.
Unfortunately, this pattern doesn`t look to break any time soon,
with more of the same warm and humid weather on tap for the
weekend. Ridging aloft will keep any precipitation at bay, while
breezy onshore flow resulting from surface high pressure centered
near FL will keep an steady influx of warm and moist air into the
region.

The combination of warm and humid air at the surface and lack of
any precip will result in above average temps throughout the
weekend, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and
lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Apparent temps are forecast
to peak in the lower 100s across central LA and interior SE TX
each afternoon, while closer to the coast apparent temps in the
mid to upper 90s can be expected. The NWS Heat Risk tool depicts
Moderate to Major Heat Risk both Sat and Sun (level 2 and 3 out of
4), so heat safety should be a top priority this weekend.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Moving into the work week, more of the same hot and humid weather
is on tap for Monday and Tuesday, with highs again reaching into
the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon amid mostly sunny skies.
However, a pattern change does finally look to arrive late Tuesday
as a deepening upper level trough dives across the Plains and
sends a cold front across the SErn US. Models are in good
agreement with the front arriving late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning, exiting the region by midday Wednesday. This
boundary will likely be accompanied by some showers and
thunderstorms, which will likely begin to affect interior SE TX
and parts of CENLA by Tuesday evening, spreading southeastward
from there overnight.

Any lingering convection should come to an end through Wednesday
morning, as a dry WNW/NW flow develops overhead aloft and the cold
front exits to our east/southeast. Dry and slightly cooler air
will filter into the region throughout the day Wednesday,
resulting in a rather pleasant middle and end to to the work week.
Dewpoints are forecasted to hang out in the mid 50s to lower 60s
from at least Wed through Fri, while high temps top out in the low
to mid 80s. After the precip accompanying the front dry weather
is expected through the end of the week as well.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Scattered to broken CIGs will waffle between MVFR and VFR this
afternoon, eventually becoming MVFR area-wide near or just after
sunset. Winds will remain breezy out of the south until sunset,
relaxing overnight. As we near sunrise tomorrow, areas of IFR CIGs
as well as patchy fog will be possible. This should be rather
brief, with all sites returning to MVFR through the mid-morning
and then again waffling between MVFR and VFR thereafter. Winds
will again become breezy by the mid to late morning hours
tomorrow.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure at the surface will continue to ridge across the
northern Gulf through the weekend into early next week, resulting
in several more days of light to moderate onshore flow, low seas,
and dry conditions. Winds and seas begin to pick up a bit by
Tuesday as a front approaches from the north, tightening the
pressure gradient overhead and eventually bringing our next chance
of rain by early Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  92  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  75  87  74  87 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  75  88  74  87 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  75  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17