081
FXUS64 KLCH 301100
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
600 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the short term,
however a few cooling showers and storms will be possible each
afternoon.

A ridge aloft remains in place across the region and is centered
over North Texas this morning while extending east across the Deep
South. At the surface, a ridge is centered over the NE gulf while
a weak cold front is stretched from the TX Panhandle to the Ohio
Valley.

Locally the ridge aloft and at the surface will remain in place
today. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon, however even with convection the temps
and dewpoints will combine to produce apparent temps of 106 to
112. A heat adv has been issued for the entire area.

During Monday the cold front currently well to the north
will have drifted south into North LA to southern MS and AL under
cutting the edge of the ridge. The surface ridge will have
shifted from the gulf into TX as well. The flow is expected to
briefly become more northerly while moisture pools ahead of the
weak front. The ridge aloft is expected to remain roughly in
place, however with a very soupy airmass (PWATs near a record for
the date, +2.5"), diurnal heating, and added convergence with the
sea breeze and north flow, scattered to widespread afternoon
storms are anticipated. With the column being nearly saturated
storms may be very efficient rain producers Monday afternoon into
the evening.

During Tuesday the boundary will wash out reducing convergence
while a very slightly drier airmass filters back in. Convection
will decrease back to isolated to widely scattered.

Heat advisories may be needed Monday and Tuesday for all or a
portion of the area while temps remain in the mid to upper 90s and
dewpoints remain elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The longterm period rolls along on Wednesday. High pressure ridge
aloft situated overhead and surface high pressure ridge sliding
southwest off of the eastern seaboard. While the forecast has
consistently been calling for high(ish) precipitation chances on
Wednesday, it appears guidance is now getting a better grasp on the
feature driving PoPs. Forecast models depict a weak easterly wave
moving across the north central Gulf of Mexico throughout the day
before bringing it in over Louisiana late Wednesday. This feature
should spread showers and thunderstorms over the area from south to
north. Forecast PWAT values of 2.00 to 2.50 inches combined with ML
CAPE of around 1500 J/kg should support efficient and somewhat
progressive rain-makers. Flooding and severe concerns are limited at
this time; basically, expect a wet and gross Wednesday.

The wave moves inland and broadens out by Thursday (Fourth of July)
with high pressure ridge moving east to span from east LA to MS and
AL. With some weakness felt aloft, a round of diurnally driven
convection may develop over coastal waters and move inland later in
the day. Less forcing, though, should keep convection more scattered
in nature. Forecast CAPE rapidly drops off after sundown which
should bring nature`s fireworks to an end and allow artificial
fireworks displays to begin.

Shortwave trof moving across the north central US on Friday will
indice weakness aloft through the weekend. Expect a return to
typical diurnal convective activity.

Highs will hover in the 90s over the entire period. For those along
and south of I-10, expect highs in the low to mid 90s; remaining
areas north of I-10 will see the mid to upper 90s. Daytime maximum
Heat Indices between 105 and 110F each day.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
with lower vis and ceilings possible in storms. Winds will be
light and south to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas.
Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  76  96  73 /  30  30  40   0
LCH  94  78  95  77 /  30  20  60  20
LFT  96  79  96  78 /  40  20  60  20
BPT  95  78  97  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05