170
FXUS64 KLCH 060005
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
705 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the western gulf this morning,
roughly 160 miles east of Tampico. High pressure is also centered
over the mid-Mississippi Valley. The local area is between these
systems which is keeping the breezy east flow in place. Through
the mid levels high pressure is stretched over Texas and across
the mid-Mississippi Valley as well. While deep moisture remains
over the gulf, a drier airmass is across the local area with a
fairly steep gradient from the gulf coast northward.

Through the afternoon diurnal heating may allow a few showers to
develop, but coverage is expected to remain isolated at best.
Lesser coverage, if any, is anticipated farther north into Cen LA
and the lakes region. For those who need or wanted rain,
unfortunately today is the last day for a bit with any chance.

Milton will move toward the east tonight through mid week. A drier
airmass will be pulled south across the area beginning Sunday
with lower dewpoints filtering in through the day. A dry and
cooler forecast is anticipated for the end of the short term into
the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A cooler, drier airmass will continue to advect into the region
Tuesday in the wake of Monday`s fropa with afternoon highs 5-10
degrees cooler than Monday. Wednesday morning will likely see the
coolest temperatures of the early fall season with lows falling into
the 50s areawide with lower 50s possible across parts of central
Louisiana. Sensible weather will remain largely uniform through the
end of the week as northwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly
clear and elongated surface high pressure from the great lakes to
the northern gulf coast will maintain cool, dry conditions on light
northeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions ongoing across the area with very isolated showers
across parts of coastal SETX and SWLA tapering out of the area
now. CIGs will continue to lift and scatter over the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong easterly winds will prevail
through the weekend between high pressure to the north and Milton
in the Gulf of Mexico. Exercise caution conditions are expected
over the offshore waters through tonight, and SCEC/SCA headlines
will continue through Sunday afternoon.

A cold front is expected to move through Monday, and strong
offshore flow is expected to develop behind the front early next
week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required from Monday
into Tuesday. Elevated offshore flow is expected to persist
through the latter part of the week.

24/05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  69  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  91  70  92 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  70  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ470-472-
     475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87