439
FXUS64 KLCH 121050
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
550 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A disturbance moving out of the Rockies will bring breezy
  conditions today, then a slim chance for showers and
  thunderstorms for tonight.

- A stronger system to end the week with potential for windy
  conditions on Friday and a Marginal Risk of severe
  thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.

- Fair weather and seasonal conditions to end the weekend into the
  first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
ern Gulf and ridging wwd maintaining a light onshore low-level
flow across the region. Water vapor imagery shows a general wrly
flow in place aloft while upstream, a shortwave is noted crossing
Baja California. Sfc obs from across the area show generally clear
skies with just patchy light fog at the moment. Regional 88Ds are
PPINE.

With the mid/upper levels remaining largely dry, today looks like
another mostly sunny day across the forecast area. However, the
resumption of winds off the Gulf will allow for temperatures to
continue their upward trajectory with highs expected to run well
into the 70s, pushing 80F across much of interior sern TX and cntl
LA. The main issue today looks to be the elevated winds as the
shortwave approaching from the swrn CONUS helps induce sfc low
development over the srn Plains, tightening the gradient. As of
now, winds are progged to remain below advisory criteria although
this will have to be monitored, especially during the afternoon
hours.

Tonight is looking like an interesting juxtaposition of
possibilities weather-wise for our area. Increasing dewpoints
reaching the lower/mid 60s over the coastal waters on top of SSTs
in the lower 60s will likely lead to marine fog development...
which is expected to be advected inland, especially over cstl sern
TX and swrn LA. At this time, we continue to see increasing
probabilities for fog, possibly dense, over these areas.
Meanwhile, lift associated with the passing shortwave is progged
to encroach the region beginning this evening. Forecast soundings
show good instability, especially inland, along with reasonable
CAPEs mainly after midnight. The problem is, these same soundings
indicate moisture rather lacking, especially aloft, as the Gulf
never really gets the chance to open in the middle/upper levels.
Therefore, we get the odd slim chance for showers/storms which
could also include a severe storm or two, mainly north of the US
190 corridor in sern TX to the LA 26 corridor in cntl LA where SPC
is highlighting a Marginal Risk for severe...damaging wind gusts
and large hail are the primary threats. Precip chances come to an
end by later overnight when the shortwave departs the area,
pulling a weakening sfc boundary across with it by Thursday
morning.

Thursday looks dry with the main story being the very warm
temperatures expected as highs warm well into the 80s, some 10 to
15 degrees above mid-March normals.

Rain chances return to the forecast for Friday when a more
significant Pacific storm system crosses the wrn CONUS and allows
for good lift to spread across the region. This system shows the
potential for a little better moisture as a bit more swrly flow is
progged to develop aloft ahead of it. Meanwhile, forecast
soundings indicate excellent CAPE values and lapse rates along
with good instabilities. This time, the entire CWA is within the
SPC Marginal Risk area. In addition, we look to see fairly breezy
conditions yet again during the day with the potential need for a
wind advisory.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The main concern for the long term looks to be elevated rain
chances and yet another day of possible severe weather on Saturday
as another in our series of shortwaves swings across the wrn Gulf
region. Forecast soundings indicate the best moisture yet with
mean RH values progged to max out around 70 percent while PWAT
values climb to around 1.5 inches (which exceeds the 90th
percentile per SPC climo). The highest rain chances are being
carried over the Atchafalaya Basin/ern zones where moisture is
progged to be best. In addition to the severe threat (all of our
LA zones are included in the 15 percent risk area while e-cntl and
s-cntl LA have been bumped up to the 30 percent area), WPC is
showing our ern-most zones in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall for Saturday.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Sfc obs indicate generally VFR conditions around the region at
this time, although patchy ground fog is making for visibilities
temporarily bouncing around at times...these conditions should
improve shortly after sunrise. The main issue throughout the day
looks to be elevated srly winds as lower pressures develop over
the Plains, tightening the gradient...the conditions will relax
somewhat with sunset. Forecast soundings indicate ceilings will
develop and lower after sunset tonight, especially for the sern
terminals where IFR conditions are ultimately expected. Some fog
is also likely for KBPT/KLCH. A stray shower or storm with an
approaching disturbance aloft cannot be ruled out overnight for
KAEX...however the chances are slim enough to leave any mention
out of their forecast for now.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

As of this writing, winds on the coastal waters are progged to
remain below any headline criteria today...however this will
continue to be monitored as the previously mentioned gradient
tightening could ultimately lead to higher winds on the coastal
waters. The first sure set of headlines looks to come on Friday
when srly winds ahead of the next approaching storm system
increase significantly over the nwrn Gulf.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  60  84  57 /   0  20   0   0
LCH  74  63  81  61 /   0  10   0   0
LFT  76  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  78  62  84  61 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25