648
FXUS64 KLCH 272322
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
622 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall becomes a concern from Friday into Saturday with
  a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Friday and a Marginal
  Risk on Saturday

- Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 5
  inches possible from Friday morning through Saturday evening

- Active weather will continue through early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Heavy rainfall will be the biggest concern for us during the
short-term forecast. A favorable synoptic pattern will allow for a
slow-moving disturbance to drag amble moisture from the Gulf
northward. Ensemble tables show moisture and IVT values in the
90th percentile. Looking at forecast soundings, a long skinny CAPE
along with mean winds of around 25 knots. This is an ideal setup
that will create an ideal set up for long duration heavy
rainfall. Where the heaviest rainbands set up remains a question,
but, based on the background set up, a flood watch has been issued
for the entire region for Friday morning through Saturday
evening. In addition, the WPC has placed us at a Slight risk
(level 2 of 4) on Friday and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) on
Saturday. In addition, this system will bring a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5). While all modes of severe weather will be possible
with this system, the overall threat remains low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

After the short wave trough gets ejected to the east, another
disturbance will begin to impact our region. This will be the
start of an active weather week with the possibility of heavy rain
and severe weather on Sunday and Monday. Looking deeper into the
active weather on Sunday and Monday, CAPE values will be over 1000
J/kg across the region with 0-6 km sheer values above 200. The
GFS and Euro have different timing for the passage of the
disturbances.

The second half of the week looks to be quieter with primarily
zonal flow across the southern US. We will see temperatures
steadily rise with highs almost reaching the 90s on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions will persist for all terminals across the SETX and
SWLA area through the evening hours. Winds will retain a SE
regime through the evening. OVC skies likely to persist near
10kft. SCT decks around 2-3kft will temporarily occur as low
level moisture increases past the midnight hour. That said,
evening upper air sounding illustrates a notable dry layer between
the surface and 10kft that will take time to moisten. SHRA and TS
become increasingly likely by late morning 03/28th moving onshore.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A weak area of low pressure and disturbance aloft will mover
across Texas and Louisiana this evening and into Saturday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the coastal
waters through the weekend. Winds will begin to increase tonight
peaking around 20 knots and will remain elevated through
Saturday. Gusts will be higher from 25 to 30 knots. Because of the
winds a Small Craft advisory will be in effect for tonight. Combined
seas will be between 5 and 7 feet tonight through Saturday night.
After the passage of the low pressure seas will fall below 5 feet
through midweek.

A cold front will move into the coastal waters Monday with an
offshore flow persisting into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Normal river levels at most gauges will help limit the impacts to
flood stages even with the widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
that is expected. More significant impacts could be expected on
the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) which is already at Minor
flood stage. For the latest river forecast please head to
water.weather.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  77  63  78 /  10  80  80  80
LCH  65  77  65  77 /  20  80  80  80
LFT  65  80  66  79 /  10  70  70  80
BPT  65  78  66  79 /  50  90  80  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30