965
FXUS64 KLCH 101155
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
555 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Early morning sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure near
Vermilion/Atchafalaya Bays, moving ewd with sfc obs showing
offshore low-level flow now in pace across the vast majority of
the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure is noted centered over
the Rockies and ridging sewd. Water vapor imagery shows weak
ridging over the sern CONUS while troffing is in place from wrn
ON through the Plains states to nrn Mexico. Local 88Ds show much
of the forecast area shrouded in rain, with locally heavier
showers embedded within, from the previously mentioned features,
although it should be noted that the back edge of the rain shield
is beginning to make its way into the forecast area. Obs through
the night have occasionally indicated unknown precip falling,
although no ground truth has been received to verify the presence
of frozen precip.

Our anticipated rain event looks to continue for several more
hours until the next significant shortwave rounding the base of
the cntl CONUS trof and associated 2ry sfc cold front sweep
through the area, shutting off the precip from west to east by the
early afternoon. With temps expected to hold in the mid/upper
30s, a cold rain is still most likely to be the primary weather
type with this precip, especially given the warm layer off the sfc
noted in 00z KLCH and other forecast soundings for the area. Once
the precip ends, we should see a few hours of slow warming,
resulting in highs this afternoon once again in the 40s, except
across lower Acadiana where today`s highs are likely occurring
now. Will continue to monitor wind speeds as blended guidance
indicates nwrly winds below advisory criteria, but it could be
close throughout the day.

With forecast soundings showing nearly saturated low levels
lingering through tonight, expect clouds to remain thick across
the region, but no precip is forecast. Our recent cold snap is
progged to continue with lows tonight ranging from the mid 20s to
the mid 30s. With sfc winds forecast to diminish through the
night, apparent temps are currently expected to stay above
advisory criteria across the entire forecast as of now.

The longwave trof is progged to finally push east of the forecast
area, while sfc high pressure builds overhead through
Saturday...thus clouds should be on the decrease through the day.
It may seem a little balmy as highs should finally crack the 50
degree barrier across much of the area for the first time in
several days. Then with the high expected to depart the region and
light serly flow forecast to develop in its wake, Saturday night
lows should run a few degrees warmer than tonight`s.

By Sunday, the next significant shortwave crossing the Rio Grande
Valley is progged to help spin up another sfc low over the wrn
Gulf. The combo of these features with increasing moisture look to
spread another round of rainfall nwd from the Gulf waters
throughout the day, with highest POPs closest to the coast...with
the eventual track of the low to determine where the most rainfall
will fall, so stay tuned. Precip will end from west to east by
Sunday night as the low departs and pulls another cold front
through the forecast area.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

The combination of a general zonal flow aloft and Canadian sfc high
pressure building over the wrn Gulf region looks to lead to a
mostly dry long term across the forecast area. Temperatures are
forecast to remain below normal, although a slow moderation trend
is expected.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Local 88D imagery shows the back edge of rain shield already past
KBPT and about to pass KAEX/KLCH...behind this, likely seeing
spotty drizzle which will last a few hours. Meanwhile, the rain
will continue at the Acadiana terminals for a couple more hours
before departing. Behind the rain, forecast soundings indicate IFR
or lower ceilings will continue throughout the day and into the
evening before rising. Elevated mainly nwrly winds will also
persist behind a departing area of low pressure.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

No changes were made to the inherited CWF headlines this morning,
with conditions on the coastal waters expected to slowly improve
through the day. Another round of stronger offshore flow behind
another sfc low/cold frontal passage is expected to lead to new
headlines on the coastal waters by the early part of the new work
week.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  41  29  48  27 /  70   0   0   0
LCH  46  33  50  35 /  70   0   0   0
LFT  46  34  50  35 /  90   0   0   0
BPT  47  31  53  38 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LAZ044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ515-516-
     615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
     tonight for GMZ450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25