436
FXUS64 KLCH 071131
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions along with isolated afternoon
  convection will persist through the weekend as the pattern
  remains stagnant

- Maximum heat index values will range from 100 to 107 today and
  Sunday

- Precipitation chances increase Sunday through much of the
  upcoming week as a series of upper level disturbances move
  through the region

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The pattern this morning remains virtually unchanged across the
gulf coast. An upper ridge is centered over Mexico and stretches
northeast into south Texas and LA. At the surface, the subtropical
ridge stretches from the Atlantic into the the northern gulf
coast. This pattern is keeping the humid south flow in place while
suppressing most convection. This will produce another hot and
humid day with a few showers and storms. Apparent temperatures
are forecast to be just below the heat advisory criteria of 108.

An upper low will dig into the upper midwest Sunday into Monday.
The upper ridge centered over Mexico will begin to erode from the
north and east by Sunday which will allow a slight increase in
convection, but mainly toward the Atchafalaya Basin into Acadiana.
Temperatures will remain elevated and near heat adv criteria.

As the upper disturbance digs into the eastern CONUS the upper ridge
will shift farther south. A cold front will drop south toward the
gulf coast as well. Convection will increase farther into Monday
as the upper ridge weakens which will also decrease temps
somewhat. With upper disturbances rounding the base of the larger
trough, an MCS may become a concern Monday with strong gusty
winds possible. SPC has highlighted a portion of the region has
having a slight risk of severe weather, mainly Cen LA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The aforementioned cold front drifts into the area and stalls by
Tuesday. PWATs peak out around 2" which is in the 90th percentile
for the date. With a surface focus, passing upper disturbances,
and a soupy air mass, heavy rain will be a concern.

The frontal boundary will weaken and gradually lift north Wed and
Thu while ridging aloft builds back in from the east by Friday and
Saturday. Rain chances will decrease somewhat late in the week
into the weekend, however typical diurnal convection may remain
in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated during the period, however
patchy thin BR and lower ceilings may linger for an hour or two
after sunrise, then again around sunrise Sunday. Winds will be
light and generally south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through the middle of next week. A few showers and
thunderstorms will pop up sporadically this afternoon with higher
rain chances expected beginning Sunday through next week as a
couple of upper level disturbances move across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  74  95  74 /  10   0  20  30
LCH  91  77  92  77 /  10   0  10  10
LFT  92  76  92  77 /  20   0  30  10
BPT  92  77  93  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05