636
FXUS64 KLCH 010922
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
422 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Currently there is high pressure stretching across the southeast
US aloft. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is meandering
southward towards Louisiana. As this boundary moves into southwest
Louisiana, expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
today. With PWAT values 2.00 to 2.50 inches observed in the area,
showers should be relatively efficient with rainfall rates. Some
wet downbursts could be possible but should be isolated in nature.
Expect some of the same tomorrow and Wednesday as the boundary
continues meandering overtop the area.

Hot and very hot conditions are anticipated over the coming days.
High pressure aloft will allow temps to soar into the mid and
upper 90s across the region. Combined with high humidity, Heat
Indices from 110 to 114F are expected today and tomorrow. Heat
Advisories have been issued today for all areas except right
along the Atchafalaya Basin; here, an Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect due to a concentration of higher dewpoints and thus higher
HI values.

Tomorrow, a Heat Advisory will be in effect area-wide. If portions
of it need to be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning, those
updates will come with forecast updates.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The mid/upper-level ridge which is expected to be the prevailing
feature aloft through the first half of the new week is progged to
begin breaking down/getting shunted ewd by Thursday in response to a
digging trof crossing the Rockies. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is
forecast to remain centered to our east, maintaining a srly low-
level flow across the region. Despite the lack of a good lift
source, the combo of daytime heating with reasonable moisture
(forecast soundings indicate mean RH values around 60 percent and
PWAT values upwards of 2.0 to 2.1 inches) should lead to scattered
diurnal convection for the July 4th holiday, especially over the
sern zones where the best moisture is progged.

For Friday, heights aloft will continue to lower as the shortwave
trof pushes ewd through the Plains. However with forecast soundings
showing a little less moisture in place, highest rain chances over
Acadiana are expected to lower a little while small rain chances
linger over the remainder of the forecast area.

Next weekend sees the area fully under the influence of the cntl
CONUS trof. With the mid-level flow expected to be more off the Gulf
by that time, forecast moisture is progged to tick back upward,
leading to slightly higher rain chances to end the forecast period.
A side note to watch for...none of the long range models are
currently advertising the trof axis digging deep enough to pick up
TC Beryl, which by that point is progged to be on a wwd bee line
across the far srn Gulf towards a landfall along the Mexican coast.
But as we are talking days 6/7 and beyond in the forecast, model
solutions could certainly change over the coming days...stay tuned.

Forecast highs in the long term continue to run in the lower/mid 90s
each day. Peak heat index values generally look to stay below
advisory criteria at this time.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Diurnal convection from today has diminished. The remainder of the
night should see mainly stable conditions with VFR to go along
with light and variable winds and high level cloudiness.

On Monday, expect a better chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as a weak surface boundary moves into the forecast
area. Will have PROB30 groups at all terminals starting after
01/19z. Away from any storms, VFR conditions will prevail.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Rain chances will increase over coastal waters starting today as
a weak surface boundary moves down into the region. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with elevated
winds and seas as hazards near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  74  99  76 /  40  10  20   0
LCH  94  77  94  79 /  60  20  40  10
LFT  97  79  97  80 /  70  30  50  10
BPT  96  78  97  79 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027-028-030>032-044-073-074-141>143-152-154-241>243-
     252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ029-033-045-055-153.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07