Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
848 FXUS64 KLCH 130511 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A fire danger statement is in effect Monday from noon until 6 PM Low afternoon relative humidity, along with drought conditons will cause elevated fire weather through Wednesday. Moisture should start its return late Wednesday into Thursday. - The next chance of rain will be Friday as a weak wave moves over the northwest Gulf. Chances are less than 20 percent, as it depends heavily on moisture return prior to Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Only minor tweaks to the forecast as high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern. While the ridge aloft is centered over Texas, 500 mb height at LCH is still around 585 dm. To put this into context, a ridge this strong in October is expected about once every 30 years. With a ridge this strong, rain chances will remain zero through the first half of the workweek. Clear skies and a dry profile will allow our daytime temperatures to quickly rise with highs in the upper 80s. At night, light winds and clear skies will allow for efficient cooling, dropping our lows to the upper 50s inland and low 60s near the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 For the long-term forecast, timing has been the biggest difficulty as a trough digging into the Rockies will be the catalyst to weaken the Ridge. As the wave moves north of our area, the ridge will weaken with Ensemble tables showing a much weaker ridge by Thursday. By the end of the week, the center of the high pressure will be to our east, and our winds will become southerly, and low-end rain chances (20%) will return to the forecast. Near the end of the forecast, global models have been showing a cold front moving across the region, bringing widespread rain and cooler temperatures. The timing for this front is still up in the air but Saturday/Sunday looks to be the most likely. With this system still a week away, there is a lot of uncertainty, so changes to the forecast should be expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 VFR conditions tonight with clear skies. Patchy fog will be possible in the morning, dropping VIS down to MVFR. After sunrise, VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Through the middle of the week, winds will be below 10 knots and mainly from the east. At night, winds will be calm. Waves will stay below 3 feet. Rain chances will be below 10% with a slight increase in rain chances near the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Drought conditions continue to be the main concern across the region with KBDI values near or above 600. In addition, we now have abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought (D1) across much of the region as well. No rain is expected until Friday at the earliest. Minimum RH values between 25 and 35% in the afternoon. Max RH values top out near 90%, showing that we are not having complete RH recovery. The main limiting factor for fire danger will be the light winds with 20-foot winds staying below 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 57 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 62 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 63 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14