528
FXUS64 KLCH 020535
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisories may be needed over the holiday weekend.

- An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid
  conditions.

- No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Upper-level ridging continues to impact our area, with high
pressure centered over the western U.S. At the surface, ridging
extends across the northern Gulf and continues to push warm, moist
air into the region. Convection will remain isolated and limited
to the afternoon hours, as the ridge influences our weather
pattern.

This afternoons 00Z sounding shows a PWAT value of 1.5 inches,
placing us in the 25th percentile. This is much lower than the GFS
model guidance, which expected 1.8 inches. The much drier air will
reduce rain chances further, and PoPs will remain low for the
rest of the week. This pattern will continue through most of the
week, with 500 mb heights staying above 590 dm.

The main weather concern will be the heat. This afternoon, almost
all of our stations reported heat index values in the triple
digits, though we didnt reach the heat advisory threshold of
105F. Through the rest of the week and heading into Independence
Day, temperatures will continue to rise, with highs well into the
90s and heat indices breaking into the triple digits. We are
expecting borderline heat advisory conditions, and its possible a
heat advisory may be needed for parts of the CWA by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Heat will remain the main concern in the second half of the
forecast period, as the upper-level ridge persists. Temperatures
will approach the triple digits for the first time this year, and
we may reach 100F in central Louisiana, over the weekend. NBM
probabilities give Alexandria a 50% chance to reach the triple
digits. For the rest of the CWA chances remain on the low side,
around 30%. Rain chances will remain low, with PoPs hovering
around 20% until next week. As the ridge shifts to the west
subsidence will lessen and more afternoon convection will occur
along with a slight decrease in temperatures. Overall the start of
next week looks like a typical summer time pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A high pressure ridge is centered to our west and is extending
across our region. VFR conditions will persist through the night
across the area. Winds will remain light and from the south for
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue, along with low
seas between 1 and 3 feet. The NHC has marked an invest area in
the eastern Gulf with a 40% chance of development over the next 7
days. It`s too early to determine whether there will be any
regional impacts, but we will continue to monitor the system and
update the forecast as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Low rain chances and high temperatures will persist over the next
several days. Minimum RH values will remain elevated around 50%,
with overnight values peaking near 100%. Winds will stay light and
primarily southerly through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  94  77  94  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  92  77  93  76 /  30  20  30  10
BPT  94  75  94  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14