Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
515 FXUS64 KLCH 181139 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 639 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure meandering around the region will bring about periods of on and off scattered showers and storms. - Tropical airmass in the region will cause any storms to be efficient rain-makers. This has resulted in a Marginal Risk of flash flood potential for the area today. - Away from rainfall and clouds, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices ranging 103 to 107F. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Very hot conditions with very little rainfall were felt today. Expect much of the same today as high pressure meanders near the region. Guidance is wavering on coverage today, and considering the high pressure nearby, it`s hard to believe we will see much in the way of convective activity. That being said, with the tropical characteristics of the airmass overhead, any cells that do develop will have the potential for very heavy downpours. Those rain chances will somewhat increase Tuesday and Wednesday as Erin moves near the mainland US, causing high pressure to retrograde. This will open the door for slightly elevated rain chances, once again, within the tropically moist airmass settled in the region. High temps will top out in the mid to upper 90s each day this short term period. With little convection expected today and daytime moisture, afternoon HIs could top out in the 105 to 107F range like seen on Sunday. Because mixing should take over, a Heat Advisory has not been issued for Monday. If one becomes necessary, it will be issued. Increases in cloud cover and rain chances will help to limit the heat risk expected Tuesday and Wednesday. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Those elevated rain chances lingering into the start of the longterm from retrograded high pressure will prevail into the later work week. High pressure attempts to build back to the southeast from the western US, but it does not appear to lock back in for the remainder of the longterm period. Northerly flow around this high should help to limit convection into next weekend, but don`t get too hung up on this idea. Sfc moisture and weakness certainly drives instability enough to generate typical summer afternoon convection. 11 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Upper level riding centered over the southern plains will provide some modest subsidence over the region today resulting in somewhat fewer thunderstorms this afternoon. Even so, some convection is expected to develop and this is most likely in the vicinity of LFT and ARA. Convection that develops will gradually dissipate through the early evening. Away from storms, a somewhat variable northerly wind will prevail at or under five knots. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Seas and winds will remain low over the period as high pressure meanders over the region. Periods of on and off showers and storms will also follow the regime of variable pressure. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible in the coming days as high pressure meanders around the region. Expect a decent amount of mixing each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s bringing about daily minimum RH values in the 40 to 55 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 98 72 96 73 / 30 30 30 10 LCH 97 75 95 76 / 50 40 50 20 LFT 95 75 93 75 / 50 30 40 10 BPT 96 74 93 76 / 40 20 50 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...66