Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
652 FXUS64 KLCH 112304 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 604 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A mild and very dry forecast is anticipated through most of the coming week. Expect warm, above average temperature days but with cool fall-feeling evenings. - With low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 No sweeping changes to the forecast as high pressure, caught between lows situated on west and east US coastlines, moves overhead today, Monday and part of Tuesday. Dry air with lower dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60F will hang around thru the short term. However, with rising heights, expect daytime high temps to push into the mid to upper 80s each day with little to no cloud cover. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure ridge remains in place over the southeast, albeit not as strong, through the remainder of the work week. The west coast low pressure system now appears to be shunted towards the northern Rockies/Plains states Wednesday and Thursday. By late Thursday, perhaps another trof feature could drop out of eastern Canada into New England. The influence brought by the Plains low and the New England trof may be enough to erode the southeast US ridge by Friday. Still monitoring for the possibility of upper disturbance to develop towards the middle end of the week due to the aforementioned relative weakening of the ridge. Guidance does bring a low feature into the west Gulf Thursday which is picked up by the Plains Low upper trof and brought overtop the CWA on Friday. This may result in a return in low end rain chances Friday. The evolution of this feature will continue being monitored over the coming days. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure will keep VFR conditons in place through the TAF period. Winds will be light overnight and after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Wind and sea conditions continue to improve within a dry airmass and as ridging moves right overtop the northwest Gulf Coast region. Winds will vary each day with diurnal influences along the coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Expect dry with warming temperatures and persistent northeast winds to prevail over the weekend between upper ridge moving overhead and upper trough developing to the east. Temps will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 each day through the mid week as high pressure sits right overhead. Weak onshore flow attempt its return early Monday, but with rising heights causing aforementioned hot temps and dry airmass in place, expect a prolonged period of low humidities each day. Minimum RH values 25 to 35 percent can be expected through at least Wednesday. Overnight maximum RH values from 75 to 95 percent give indication that moisture will not rebound completely during overnight periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 62 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 59 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 63 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...14