902
FXUS64 KLCH 041744
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions will continue today through Saturday until a
  cold front moves through late Saturday. A Wind Advisory is in
  effect through this evening.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect this morning through
  this evening, another will be in effect for the same timeframe
  Saturday.

- A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday.
  Resulting storms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail
  and tornadoes all possible.

- Much cooler, drier air will move in behind the cold front
  Saturday night through the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Wx map shows a large surface trough over the Midwest into Texas,
with a warm front advancing northward across the ArkLaTex.
Further east, a strong surface high ridging across the Gulf.
Between these two systems, a tight pressure gradient is producing
strong south to southeast winds around 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45
mph common across the area for the third day in a row now, easily
verifying the Wind Advisories. Very warm temperatures in the lower
to mid 80s, expected to rise in the mid to upper 80s, possibly
touching 90 in a few locations. Updates included winds upped a
little to match current observations, but otherwise, remaining
forecast parameters on track.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A very full shortterm forecast is in store. One look across the US
and the current situation is very clear: quasi-stationary front
stretches from southwest to northeast from southwest Texas to
CenAR into western KY; high pressure dome is standing resolute
over FL; upper trof is nearing the Rockies. The combination of all
these features will make up the busy forecast. Let`s break it
down by hazard...

Severe TL;DR: Brief period of severe storms possible in extreme
inland SE TX / W LA zones this afternoon. Any storms that can
develop will carry all hazards. The chance of severe thunderstorms
is low.

Saturday`s severe risk will begin late morning and will
continue into early morning hours Sunday. Super cells with all
hazards will be possible across SE TX from noon to early evening;
from mid afternoon to midnight in SW and CenLA. Front comes in
from the west in the form of a congealed line of stronger storms
with heavy rain starting mid afternoon. The line will also carry
all storm hazards, including heavy/flooding rain, as it moves very
slowly eastward from early afternoon into Sunday.

Wind... Strong pressure gradient between the series of lows
developing east of the Rockies and high pressure dome is going
nowhere. Winds overnight have remained elevated, particularly
along and south of I-10, thus the Wind Advisory was started early.
Remaining zones north of I-10 will join the Advisory at 1 PM as
strong winds spread inland. This happens when daytime diurnal
action causes the gradient to tighten further and as mixing pulls
down stronger winds from aloft. Expect south winds 20 to 25 MPH
with gusts to 40 MPH; although sustained winds and gusts could be
higher. We`ve been overachieving on winds during daytime hours in
the last several wind events.

Much of the same can be expected Saturday ahead of the approaching
cold front. Another Wind Advisory will likely be issued with the
daytime package.

Coastal Flooding... Strong winds are exacerbating water levels
around high tide time. Expect nuisance coastal flooding today and
Saturday as water levels are forecast to reach 1.0 to 1.5 feet
MHHW around high tide time.

Last but not least... Severe Weather (Today)... Upper trof is set
to amplify as it crosses the Rocky Mountains later today. This
extra forcing will help to goad along the aforementioned
stationary front. The front will slowly sag southward this
afternoon but will remain north of the forecast area. A few
isolated/discrete cells may form in response to its presence in
Deep Southeast Texas during the afternoon and early evening, but
chances are very low of severe weather materializing for the
forecast area. Any storms that can develop can carry all storm
hazards. Again, this chance is low.

Severe Weather (Saturday)... Upper low really starts spinning up
and rolling east on Saturday. Guidance indicates several
perturbations will swing through the upper low as it moves into
central Texas Saturday afternoon. This "troughiness" could result
in an area of localized increased vorticity and shear in the
afternoon and evening. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s and CAPE
above 2300 J/kg, updrafts will have little issue developing and
maintaining themselves overtop the entire forecast area.

Bulk shear falls largely less than 30 knots over the region until
after noon. A larger increase to 30 to 40 knots occurs after noon,
along with increased forcing overall from aloft. This could
denote the start of semi-discrete super cell-type features in SE
TX/SW LA as the front enters east-central Texas. The front should
make quick progress into east Texas through the afternoon hours,
however, aloft, the low gets swiftly pulled to the northeast
around the northern fringe of the high pressure ridge. This
decrease in forcing will cause the front to slow to a crawl as it
moves into LA in the later afternoon/evening. At this point, two
scenarios will likely unfold: 1. discrete cells developing in the
env ahead of the line (central and east LA) which swiftly move
northeast; 2. those storms along the front congeal into a line of
strong storms and heavy-rainers that move slowly eastward. Expect
at least showers and thunderstorms to linger into Sunday until
upper trof fully swings through, clearing our region of rain. Much
cooler and drier weather will move in thereafter.

All hazards will be possible throughout the entirety of Saturday
from mid morning into the early morning hours Sunday. Rotating
cells will have the ability to spin down a tornado, mix down
strong wind gusts and/or carry large hail. Then, along the line,
damaging winds could result in surface damage as well as embedded
tornadoes. Stronger updrafts within the line could produce large
hail.

Remain very weather aware from mid-morning into the overnight
period. Ensure you have the means to receive warnings, and heed
them when/if they come.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Much much cooler and drier conditions are the talking point of the
longterm forecast. Strong CAA behind this weekend`s cold front
will bring about morning low temps in the mid to upper 40s by
Monday morning, low to mid 40s Tuesday morning. Monday will
largely be the coldest day in the longterm with highs in the 60s.
By Tuesday, high pressure over the CenUS will slide east to the
ern seaboard, allowing the local airmass to moderate. Daytime
highs will return to the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday before hitting
the 80s once again Thursday.

With high pressure in control of the forecast, expect dry
conditions through the period.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

MVFR ceilings to prevail at all sites through the period.
South to southeast winds 22-24 with gusts to 30-34 at AEX,
diminishing a bit 12 kts gusts to 22 kts after 00z, picking up
again 17 kts with gusts near 25 kts after 15z Saturday. Southern
terminals of BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA are quite a bit stronger, with
sustained winds of 22-28 kts and gusts 35-40 kts this afternoon.
Winds expected to diminish some, but remain elevated around 18-20
kts with gusts near 30 kts after 00z throughout the night, and
increase a bit toward daybreak Saturday. SHRA/TSRA chances
increase for AEX/BPT by 14-15z Saturday.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...

Strong southeast winds will continue through Saturday. A cold
front will push through the coastal waters Saturday afternoon and
night accompanied by a squall line with strong to severe
thunderstorms possible. Hazards possible include damaging winds,
large hail, waterspouts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
Winds will turn offshore and relax behind the front Saturday night
and remain that way through mid next week. Seas, particularly in
20 to 60 nm waters, will remain elevated through Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Very warm, humid and windy conditions will prevail today and
Saturday as the area remains caught between a ridge of high
pressure to the east and a series of developing lows across Texas
and the southern Plains. An upper trough will guide a cold front
through the area late Saturday accompanied by a squall line
capable of producing severe storms and heavy rain. Significantly
cooler, drier air will filter into the region on northwest winds
behind the front Saturday night through the middle of next week.

Daytime low RH percentages will range from the mid 50s inland to
around 70 percent at the coastline today and Saturday. By Sunday
and into the start of next week, these values will fall to the mid
20s to mid 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  73  83  56 /  10  10  90  90
LCH  85  74  82  57 /  10   0  70  90
LFT  86  75  84  63 /   0   0  50  90
BPT  84  75  82  55 /  20  10  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ044-045-055-073-
     074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-
     516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08