Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
426 FXUS64 KLCH 150522 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week, with moisture returning throughout Thursday and Friday as onshore flow becomes reestablished - Small rain chances return on Friday, with more substantial rain chances Saturday into Sunday with the approach and passage of an upper level trough and associated cold front && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 High pressure at both the surface and aloft continue to dominate the forecast area tonight, and will continue to do so through roughly the next 24-36 hours before the synoptic pattern finally begins to shift. Until then, another hot and dry day is on tap today with zero rain chances and low humidity once again expected. Once again, an elevated risk for wildfires will exist today, as afternoon relative humidity values bottom out in the 30-40% range. Overnight, surface winds shift more east to southeast as surface high pressure shifts towards New England, allowing for an initially slow increase in moisture mainly across the our coastal counties/parishes. Tomorrow, moisture return ramps up further as upper ridging begins to weaken overhead, opening the door for moisture to increase throughout the column. While moisture increases throughout the day Thurs, we will be starting from a very dry baseline, so initial changes will be minimal and more so noticeable in slightly more cloud cover and higher dewpoints by Thurs afternoon. Moving into Friday, after around 24 hours of slow but steady moisture return we see the return of rain chances, the first in several days. Friday, best chance for rain will be across SE TX, with very minimal chances for adjacent SW LA. The remainder of the CWA can expect another warm and humid afternoon, with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Rain chances ramp up as we move into the weekend, as upper level troughing shifts across the Plains and an embedded shortwave approaches the Ark-La-Tex region on Sat. SPC has outlined a Day 5 Slight Risk just to our north, and while there is no outlook for the CWA at this point this definitely looks like something to watch, as I wouldn`t be surprised if we see at least a MRGL for northern parts of the area. For now, looking at increasing rain chances through the morning, with at least scattered convection persisting into the afternoon and evening hours ahead of this trough/shortwave. With a significant amount of moisture expected to be available by then, heavy wouldn`t be surprised to see some heavy downpours as well, but with how dry we`ve been I know this will be welcomed by many. Finally by Sunday the upper trough axis will be shifting east of the area, allowing a dry NWrly flow to set up briefly overhead. In addition, a weak trailing cold front will sweep through the CWA Sat night/Sun morning, bringing a drier airmass into the area for the end of the weekend. Any lingering convection early Sun should taper off through the morning hours, giving way to a dry and seasonal afternoon. Unfortunately, this dry period won`t really last, as onshore flow quickly returns on Mon and allows dewpoints to creep up once again, leading to more above average temps through the early work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 No changes since the previous TAF package. VFR conditions and light winds shifting from NE to E to eventually SE can be expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Light to moderate NE winds today will gradually shift E this afternoon into tonight and then more ESE to SE Thurs through Fri as surface high pressure moves off to our east. Thurs night into Fri, winds will begin to increase slightly, with gusts around 15-18 kts. Now through the weekend, waves will remain below 4 feet. Rain chances will return on Friday and continue until the passage of a cold front on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Low RH and dry conditions will keep fire concerns elevated across the region again today. Currently, multiple parishes have burn bans in place across Acadiana along with counties in southeast Texas. Conditions will start to improve slowly tomorrow and more substantially on Friday as south winds will bring in more moisture. Rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend with the approach and passage of an upper trough and cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 87 63 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 87 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 87 65 85 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17