095
FXUS64 KLCH 302343
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies forecast this afternoon into tomorrow with diurnally
  driven convection expected through the work week and into the
  weekend.

- An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid
  conditions.

- No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Broad upper level ridging will extend across the central Gulf Coast
through this evening. Mix of Saharan dust and marine aerosols will
create hazy skies this afternoon and likely into Tuesday morning as
well. With relatively light winds throughout the tropospheric
profile and weak subsidence inversion in the low levels,
temperatures are forecast to run near normal to a few degrees above
normal where interior locations may hedge toward the mid 90`s
through the midweek. These conditions may border heat advisory
criteria, but will likely be highly dependent upon RH. Regardless,
apparent temperatures climbing into the 100- 107F is a given
this work week. By Wednesday a frontal boundary will drift
southward toward northern Louisiana, however, models don`t suggest
enough forcing to make it down to the coast- concerning the NW
Gulf. The more favorable axis for moisture advection / convergence
aligns along the Florida Peninsula and east Gulf. Isolated
summertime thundershowers remain possible daily with slightly
better chances extending across Acadiana and Southeast LA.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Long range pattern has some unsettled elements, mainly
precipitation. A portion of the frontal system that stall north of
the forecast area does carry eastward across the lower Mississippi
Valley toward the eastern Gulf Thursday and Friday, potentially
organizing into a coastal trough in this region. Confidence does
remain with the daytime highs to hedge further into the mid 90`s
through the remainder of the week. There are several solutions
within the blended and deterministic guidance that yield an
opportunity for this coastal trough to stall and / or retrograde
west along the toward SELA coast through the weekend. Because
this solution has retained some consistency, PoP`s do become
little more widespread this coming weekend. With regards to
coverage and amounts, that point in the forecast is well out of
the scope of reasonable confidence to say more than chances
becoming a little better organized. Bottom line, the tail end of
the forecast is highly subject to change pending the evolution of
the coastal troughing along the eastern Gulf. Hot and muggy
conditions may warrant heat related products at this time as well.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions will persist overnight with ceilings staying
broken above FL250. Winds will remain light and primarily from the
south as high pressure builds overhead. The forecast brings VCTS
back tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Weak surface high pressure will remain near the area, with
prevailing light onshore flow and low seas. Rain chances over the
coastal waters will decrease as an upper level ridge suppresses
moves overhead. Overall, benign marine conditions are expected to
persist through the midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Rain chances will decrease through the short range outlook as mid
to upper level ridging builds across the region. However,
persistent low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity
values generally in the 45 to 65 percent range. No significant
fire weather concerns are expected. More favorable region for
isolated thundershowers will remain across Acadiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  73  95 /  10  40  20  30
LCH  76  93  76  94 /   0  20  10  30
LFT  75  92  75  92 /  10  40  20  60
BPT  75  93  75  94 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14