127
FXUS64 KLCH 100528
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1128 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 905 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tweaked the flash flood watch by eliminating southeast Texas and
southern and eastern periphery locations, based on current radar
trends and hi-res models.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

In the long term, Rafael is expected to transition into a post
tropical remnant low with no direct impacts anticipated in our local
area. Surface high pressure is forecasted to be centered over the
Northern Plains, extending eastward toward the Great Lakes Region at
the beginning of the period. This pattern will support light ridging
across our area, accompanied by northeasterly winds and an influx of
drier air, though temperatures will not cool significantly.

MaxTs and MinTs are projected to remain approximately 715 degrees
above climatological normals for this time of year, providing a
slight relief from recent (more drastic) elevated temperatures.
Model guidance currently exhibits some variability regarding the
approaching frontal system, though a general consensus suggests
passage through the area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. A subsequent decrease in temperatures and drier conditions
is anticipated. Moisture availability appears limited with this
frontal passage, so PoPs are expected to remain below 25 percent at
that time, then decrease below 15 percent for the rest of the period
post frontal passage.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Expecting ceilings to drop to IFR levels overnight, before
improving by midday Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tropical Storm Rafael across the Central Gulf of Mexico will
continue to weaken as it moves slowly westward tonight, expected
to turn south-southwest Sunday with continued weakening through
early next week. High seas and swells will continue across the
coastal waters tonight, with gradually diminishing seas by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  78  62  78 / 100  40  20  10
LCH  71  81  67  81 /  70  30  10   0
LFT  73  83  68  82 /  80  60  30  10
BPT  71  84  66  84 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 3 AM CST Sunday for LAZ027>033-141>143.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for LAZ073-074-252.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Sunday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...15