267
FXUS64 KLCH 111757
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move
  west across the northern Gulf into Texas, increasing rain
  chances over the area.

- A surge of deeper, tropical like moisture will move around the
  wave and into eastern portions of forecast area proving a risk
  of excessive rainfall through Wednesday.

- The subtropical ridge from the east will build in at the end of
  the week to provide typical summertime weather. Currently there
  is an upper level weakness that is over the TX coast / Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Widely isolated convection ongoing, mainly across the marine
zones and eastern CenLA down to the coast. While we have seen a
decreasing trend in activity this late morning to afternoon, we
can expect another round of scattered activity later this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

Convection will be the main highlight of the short term forecast,
with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms and an
increased chance for nocturnal convection as well. Forecast PWAT
values will hover in between the 75th and 90th percentile over the
duration of the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The long term will be a transition out of the wet period as a
subtropical ridge begins to move into the area out of the east. As
it expands into the central and western Gulf Coast, we will see a
decrease in PoPs, however this will not shut it out completely.
For the end of the week and into the weekend, most of the activity
will be diurnally driven. We could also see a slight bump in
temperatures, however they will remain within 4 degrees above
climatological averages for this time of year. With dewpoints
remaining in the 70s, we will see heat indices get above the
triple digits, however it appears at this moment that we will be
right below the criteria for heat hazards. Nevertheless, all are
urged to be cautious during prolonged periods outside.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Mainly VFR conditions ongoing with widely isolated convection
along the LA coast and eastern CenLA. We are seeing a decreasing
trend in convection currently, with another round possible in the
late afternoon to evening hours. Conditions will improve later
in the evening, with a quiet night expected outside of patchy fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

An unsettled weather pattern will lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal waters. Winds and waves will
remain light, with winds less than 10 knots and waves between 1
and 3 feet. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be higher.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A wet pattern will continue for the first half of the week, with
widespread rain expected across the coast but also possible
farther inland. Minimum RH values will stay above 50% through the
work week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Winds will be light and variable, around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  73  92 /  20  50  10  60
LCH  77  92  76  90 /  30  60  30  60
LFT  77  91  75  88 /  30  60  30  60
BPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87