746
FXUS64 KLCH 222322
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
522 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Despite the cold temperatures, the weather looks rather pretty
outside, with full sunshine reflecting off of the blanket of white
snow. Meanwhile, the snow has been melting quickly, resulting in
somewhat slushy driving conditions across the region. Driving
conditions are again expected to deteriorate this evening as the
residual slush and water refreezes and individuals are encouraged
to monitor the latest road conditions on the Louisiana DOTD page
(wwwsp.dotd.la.gov) or the Texas DOT (drivetexas.org).

Temperatures across the region have climbed into the lower 40s
across SE TX, with temps right near freezing across the Acadiana
region where some of our highest snow totals were reported.
Although snow melt will occur for a few more hours across the
area, much of it will persist overnight, leading to another night
of very cold temperatures. The Cold Weather Advisory will remain
in effect across our LA parishes as well as Newton County in SE
TX. Temperatures in the remaining areas of SE TX should stay above
criteria of 20 degrees, although some localized spots could fall
to 18-20 degrees very briefly (1-2 hours), and thus the Advisory
was cancelled for this area.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Winds have shifted SE-S across the area this afternoon as the
surface high begins to move east. Winds will gradually shift
around to a northerly direction by Thursday morning as a weak
frontal boundary slides through the region. There will be little
in the way of moisture with which to work so no precipitation is
expected. Rather, this front will mainly serve as a windshift, as
temperatures are not expected to get colder.

Regarding temperatures, as mentioned above, another night of
abnormal cold is expected thanks to the lingering snowpack across
the area. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the teens again
tonight across portions of central and south central LA over to
the Sabine Basin in SW LA north of I-10. NBM Min T did not handle
the contribution of the snow to the air temps well (and were
quite a bit warmer than what actually occurred), and so opted to
blend roughly 25% NBM with 75% NBM10 across areas where the
snowpack should continue to impact air temps (this area is
apparent on Vis Satellite). Outside of this area, min temps will
be more "reasonable", with lows into the lower to middle 20s.

Conditions will continue to improve on Thursday as temperatures
warm into the middle 40s to lower 50s across all but the Acadiana
region where melting snow will likely keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler. Below normal temperatures and dry weather will
continue into Friday as surface high pressure slides over the
area, with one last night of subfreezing temps expected Friday
night.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Temperatures will begin to moderate as the surface high moves
east of the area. High temps by Sunday and into early next week
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with morning lows in the
upper 40s to near 50s.

Robust moisture return will develop on Saturday as low level winds
become more southerly. Meanwhile, an active subtropical jet will
advect moisture into the region on zonal flow aloft. A trough
digging over the west coast is progged to gradually cutoff as it
settles over the SW CONUS. Increasing lift combined with improving
moisture will support the development of showers Saturday night.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous Sunday
into Sunday night, focusing along a trough that forms across
SE TX and moves into SW LA Sunday night. Heavy rainfall will be
possible with a few of the storms and WPC is already depicting
parts of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (level
1 out of 4). However, instability appears too weak to support any
severe risk. Rain chances are expected to remain elevated going
into the workweek as intermittent disturbances interact with the
weak boundary oscillating near the coast.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Surface high pressure has been moving east across the forecast
area today with some southerly winds returning. Ridge will still
have enough influence that winds will go light and variable
shortly after sunset.

The main question in the aviation forecast is the potential for
any shallow freezing fog development overnight into Thursday
morning. This is tricky as there is still a significant snow pack
across portions of the forecast area, so there should be good
radiational cooling, the one difference is upper level cloudiness
that will be moving in and may help keep air temperatures from
completely bottoming out. At the moment, low temperatures are not
forecast to drop below what the current dew point readings, and
therefore, the near surface layer may not become super saturated
like it did last night. Therefore, will not have fog mentioned in
the forecast, however will watch this closely during the evening
and interests should be on the lookout for amendments.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Light southerly to variable winds are expected overnight, with
northerly winds developing in the wake of a dry front late tonight.
Offshore flow will strengthen slightly Thursday night into Friday
morning, and exercise caution or marginal advisory conditions are
expected. Winds will veer back around to the southeast by
Saturday, with onshore flow continuing through the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  16  50  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  19  45  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  15  43  25  46 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  25  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07