441
FXUS64 KLCH 191209
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
709 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect today as gusty south winds are
  expected. Another may be needed Sunday.

- Very warm and humid conditions this Holiday Weekend. Check on
  the vulnerable groups when outdoors.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return for Easter Sunday, some
  storms may be severe. Unsettled weather continues through the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Breezy, warm and humid weather is on tap for the next couple of days
as the region will reside between an amplifying ridge over the SE
CONUS and an elongated upper trof to the west. Afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 80s are expected, with overnight/morning lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will flirt with advisory criteria
the next couple of afternoons, with sustained values between 15-20
mph and peak gusts of 30-35 mph possible.

The upper level trof will be in the process of filling as it
translates eastward, with the final act coming as a basal shortwave
rounds and ejects across the SRN Plains and Mid MS River Valley on
SUN. This will erode the western flank of the SE CONUS ridge and
allow a frontal boundary to approach the area late SUN. FCST
soundings in the airmass ahead of the boundary will support
convection, so anticipate at least some pre-frontal shower and
thunderstorm activity as broad lift increases across the area.
Otherwise, the weakening frontal zone will serve as the primary
focus for convection as it oozes into the area SUN night into MON.
With the attendant shortwave tracking well to our northwest and
pulling farther away to the north with time, shear progs are fairly
marginal at their peak and are rather poor by the time the front
gets here. Think the latest SPC Day 2 outlook of no higher than a
MRGL risk for parts of our area SUN looks about right. Elevated rain
chances will continue into MON with the boundary meandering about.
While temperatures will be moderated a bit by the presence of
additional cloud cover and rain, mainly across northern zones, the
front will not usher in a big airmass change.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

What remains of the frontal boundary is expected to retreat back to
the north on TUE, but the upper level pattern will have evolved into
one of quasi-zonal westerly flow. Absent the inhibiting effect of
the ridge and amid a lingering moist airmass, daily shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through the week, augmented by at
least one if not more disturbances translating through the westerly
flow aloft.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today should be quite similar to yesterday, with prevailing MVFR
CIGS this morning scattering a bit by mid to late morning,
yielding at least some periods of VFR. Reviewing observational
trends yesterday, the CIGS were a little more persistent than
anticipated at KBPT and KLCH, so did incorporate that into the
forecast for today in keeping prevailing MVFR through the period,
though even at these sites there will likely be some periods of
VFR. South winds will again strengthen and become gusty by mid
morning, easing off a little KBPT and KLCH, and more so at the
remaining sites.

13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A tight gradient between high pressure to the east and low pressure
over the Plains is bringing about a prolonged period of long fetch
across the northern Gulf. This modest southerly flow will continue
to result in elevated seas into early Monday. A Small Craft Advisory
will be in effect for all 0 to 60 nm waters through early Sunday
morning. The next chance of rainfall comes Sunday when a frontal
boundary nears the region, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected Sunday through Monday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  85  67 /   0   0  40  50
LCH  82  71  83  70 /   0   0  30  30
LFT  83  70  84  70 /   0   0  20  20
BPT  83  72  83  69 /   0   0  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13