616
FXUS64 KLCH 192051
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

All indicators (satellite, radar, area observations) point to the
same conclusion: it`s dry and hot with only fair-weather cumulus
to be seen! Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s, but
with dewpoints mixing down into the low 70s, apparent temps are
topping out from 97 to 101F.

Expecting a similar evening to last night: slow cooling trend, but
should feel comfortable outdoors, so long as you don`t get caught
by the seabreeze boundary.

High pressure regime continues into Friday and Saturday with
similar weather: hot as temperatures hit the low to mid 90s, but
dry with no precipitation anticipated.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The long range portion of the forecast remains largely unchanged
from the past few days with our mostly dry and mainly warm pattern
continuing.

A mid/upper-level ridge initially extending from Old Mexico through
ern TX into the Mid-South is progged to gradually shift ewd across
the forecast area in response to a trof digging ewd out of the
Rockies. Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the East
Coast will gradually shift ewd, maintaining an onshore low-level
flow. The result will be dry and warm conditions continuing into
early next week. By the time we get into Tuesday, the trof aloft is
progged to have shifted ewd, breaking down the ridge and allowing
for the capping to cease enough for the potential for a few
showers/storms on Tuesday/Wednesday. Finally, will continue to watch
what the models do with likely tropical development over the nwrn
Caribbean/sern Gulf for next Thursday...as of now, no concerns on
that front for our side of the Gulf Coast as a sfc boundary is
likely to slide into the region, which will also bring our small
rain chances to an end.

Highs for Sunday/Monday look to run in the lower 90s as ridging
aloft holds on before a slow drop back into the upper 80s by Tuesday
with the onset of better moisture/cloud cover. Post-frontal highs
for next Thursday are even "cooler" (mid-80s).

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure centered overtop the Texas/Louisiana state line is
in control of the forecast for the period, with only fair-weather
cumulus with MVFR ceilings and light, variable winds ongoing.

A few gusts may develop this afternoon with daytime mixing, but
due to high pressure, gusts will be variable/turbulent in nature.
After sundown, the same trend as in previous days can be expected:
improving skies after 01Z and patchy fog (4 to 5 SM) at most or
all terminals from 09 to 14Z.

After 14Z, any lingering fog will dissipate and mild, variable
conditions expected once again.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure situated over the region will continue a trend of
hot, dry and clear conditions with 1 to 2 foot seas through the
weekend. Early next week, a frontal system developing over the
central US will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing about
elevated winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  75  92  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  76  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  76  94  75  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11