526
FXUS64 KLCH 120853
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
353 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level low will linger into tonight over the region with
  clouds, occasional light rain or drizzle and temperatures 5 to
  15 below normal.

- Runoff from the recent rainfall will continue to produce
  elevated hydro flows with numerous river points expected to
  remain in flood through at-least the first part of the upcoming
  week.

- High pressure building in early next week will lead to drying
  conditions and a warming trend becoming hot and humid by mid
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

A peek at latest satellite, observations and surface analysis
points to the same picture we`ve seen the last several days: upper
low spinning along the MS/LA border with surface low now situated
in north central MS. An upper level jet noted along the
southeastern edge of the low was analyzed on last night`s RAOB
upper air maps. This signals the start of the systems northeastern
motion as this feature will help to lift out the weather system.

One final day of north to northwesterly winds and mostly cloudy
skies will bring about cooler temps, albeit warmer than we`ve
experienced in recent days. Enjoy this weather while it`s here!

Late tonight into Tuesday, southerly winds will return as high
pressure slides west out of Florida. Combined with clearing skies
and increasing heights aloft, expect much warmer temps on Tuesday
(upper 80s along the coast, low 90s inland), and even warmer
temps Wednesday (upper 80s to around 90 along the coast, mid 90s
inland.)

Wednesday is the first shot of seeing Heat Indices in the 100s
this year. While forecast values are lower than Heat Advisory
criteria, it`s still going to feel very hot out there. Now is the
time to prepare for the hot week ahead.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

High pressure further develops over the region into Thursday
keeping our forecast without precipitation chances through the end
of the work week. A series of lows moves across the central US
during this time, with only a small uptick in cloud cover expected
for majority of us.

A rather oppressive upper regime looks to shunt high pressure
further to the south on Saturday. Some very low rain chances will
be possible for northern zones on Saturday afternoon. Less than a
15 percent chance is currently in the forecast.

Strong ridging snaps back into place by Sunday and Monday. All in
all, it`s a very hot and dry forecast.

Temperatures remain in the upper 80s to around 90F along the
coastline and mid 90s inland though the full longterm period. With
no break in humidity, expect Heat Indices in the upper 90s to
lower 100s each afternoon.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist into mid Monday morning.
Ceilings are anticipated to become VFR late morning through mid
day. Winds will be light NW tonight and become west to SW by the
end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Low pressure inland over the Lower Mississippi Valley, will bring
a light to occasionally modest offshore flow into today before
the low weakens and moves off to the northeast. Before its
passage, a corridor of slightly higher offshore winds is expected
to develop off the central and southeast Louisiana shore from
this morning to the evening hours. Small craft should exercise
caution. By Tuesday, expect southerly flow to return as high
pressure ridging in from the east will replace the low. These
southerly winds will persist through the period, with some
increase on Wednesday as a series of low pressure systems develop
over the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  59  89  69 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  78  65  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  76  64  86  71 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  81  66  87  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05