491
FXUS64 KLCH 021157
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
657 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances taper through the week as a series of weak
  frontal boundaries push through the region.

- Temperatures will remain near climatological normals, but
  slightly lower dewpoints in the wake of the frontal passages
  will make conditions more tolerable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The short-wave trough that was located overhead, which helped
cause widespread rainfall along the coast and in southeast Texas
has started to weaken. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front
has moved offshore, taking with it the heavy and widespread rain.

Tomorrow, the trough is expected to move out of the region, but
without the surface convergence and less low-level moisture,
showers and thunderstorms will be limited. Convection will be
mainly diurnally driven along the sea breeze but PoPs will remain
on the lower side, around 25%. Another front will move across the
region on Wednesday, bringing more dry air and clear skies. PWATs
will continue to fall dropping, between 1.5 and 1.7 inches. Unlike
the previous front, this one will sweep well out into the Gulf
before stalling. Behind the front, high pressure will build,
leading to clear skies and dry weather.

Temperatures will remain summer-like, with highs in the low to
mid-90s and lows around 70 degrees. The dry air mass will also
help keep heat index values around 100 for most of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The second half of the week will see our winds become southerly
again as high pressure settles into the eastern Gulf. Despite the
increase in moisture, rain chances will remain low as a primarily
zonal pattern until a second front moves through at the end of the
week. This front will be another dry front as it moves through the
region but will drop our high temperatures into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Very light showers have been noted across the I-20 corridor this
morning as broad upscale lift develops over the inner Gulf coast
region. Also noted are a line of showers and thunderstorms
offshore denoting the fading boundary from previous days.

As upper trof swings across, the ArkLaMiss, expect an area of very
widely scattered showers to develop across north Louisiana around
lunchtime. An uptick in coverage will be possible as far southwest
as BPT and LCH from mid/late afternoon to early evening. Not
expecting the offshore boundary to move inland due to northerly
flow aloft.

Winds will be somewhat variable over the period around these shift
features.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Waves are between 2 and 4 feet across the region, with higher
waves to the east. Winds will remain below 15 knots through the
week and from the east to northeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Consistent showers this summer have put a lid on fire weather,
with no parts of our region in official drought or even D-0
condition. This week will see a dry pattern with clear skies; in
addition, minimum RH values in the afternoon will be around 40%
for central Louisiana and interior portions of southeast Texas.
Weak winds will be the main limiting factor, with wind gusts
staying below 10 mph through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  69  90  68 /  40  10  20   0
LCH  90  73  90  73 /  20  10  20   0
LFT  90  71  90  72 /  20  10  20   0
BPT  90  72  91  72 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11