886
FXUS64 KLCH 070907
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
307 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Surface analysis this morning shows a stalled frontal boundary
draped across northern LA to south TX, situated along our northern
CWA border. Across the forecast area, most sites are seeing areas
of dense fog and low ceilings at this time, which will likely
continue to worse as we head towards sunrise. Depending on how
things progress over the next few hours a Dense Fog Advisory may
be needed for at least part of the area later this morning, but
will hold off for the time being.

Today, the stalled boundary will continue to meander near our
northern CWA boarder, while aloft a cut off low over the Four
Corners region will slowly work its way eastward. SWrly flow aloft
will keep a steady fetch of moisture overhead today however, with
the boundary more north and a lack of upper level support for
convection we should remain mostly dry today. However, more warm
and humid weather can be expected with highs in the mid to upper
80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Friday, the upper level low will begin to track NE across the
Plains. At the same time, surface low pressure begins to organize
over west TX, eventually lifting the warm front further north and
dragging a cold front towards the forecast area late Fri into
early Sat. This will bring increasing rain chances back to the
forecast by Friday late afternoon into Friday night, with
convection generally increasing from west to east ahead of the
front/upper low. Moving into the weekend the upper low lifts
further NE towards the Great Lakes, effectively stalling the
approaching cold front near the TX/LA border by early Sat. This
will result in elevated rain chances continuing throughout
Sat and into Sat night, as the boundary provides a focus for
showers and thunderstorms. WPC has outlined part of the region
including Alexandria and the I-49 corridor in a Slight Risk (level
2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Sat, while western LA and part
of SE TX are included in the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4).
Unfortunately, with no frontal passage expected, warm and humid
conditions prevail Fri and Sat, with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

The beginning of the period still has a few showers as a
trough/upper low over Texas continues to pull tropical moisture
north into the region.

Rafael is expected to be in the central gulf, and shear is expected
to induce weakening, however winds and seas are expected to increase
in the coastal waters.

As the upper disturbance over the Texas Panhandle lifts northeast,
moisture will be pulled from the weakening cyclone into TX and LA.
There is a chance that efficient rain producing storms may result in
the deep moisture and WPC has already highlighted the area as having
a marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of excessive rain. As the upper
disturbance ejects northeast a cold front will drop south into the
region and stall, but return north Sunday. Rain chances will linger
into Sunday, but as the focus along the front lifts back north and
the upper support departs, chances will decrease.

Weak ridging may develop over the area early next week suppressing
convection. No push of cool air is anticipated either with
temperatures remaining above normal through mid week.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Residual moisture in the lower nocturnal boundary layer is
providing some VIS and ceiling restrictions with some BKN to
semi-transparent OVC decks observed under 1000ft. While dry air
aloft continues to mix down from the upper levels and Texas, MVFR
to IFR conditions to persist through the morning twilight and
daybreak. Conditions to improve prior to the local noon time
through the remainder of the afternoon today, however, some low
ceiling may linger across a few sites.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Light east to northeast winds and low seas can be expected today.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late Friday into
the weekend. In addition, winds and seas will begin to ramp up
tomorrow night into Friday, remaining elevated through at least
Sun morning and likely requiring an extended period of small craft
advisories. Hurricane Rafael across the Southeast Gulf of Mexico
is expected to turn west by Thursday and continue this motion
across the Central Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  66  80  68 /  10  10  30  50
LCH  85  71  84  71 /   0  10  20  40
LFT  87  73  86  73 /  10  10  20  30
BPT  87  72  85  71 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...30