858
FXUS64 KLCH 091958
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
258 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will start the work week, with a gradual warm up of
  temperatures.

- Next small chance of rain arrives late Wednesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure off the MS/AL
coast, with a cold front draped SSW across the Gulf. Aloft,
mid/upper level low pressure is centered over northern AR, with
the trof axis tilted back towards west TX. Visible satellite
imagery shows a significant low level cloud deck across much of
the southeastern US, with clouds wrapping around the back side of
the surface low and providing mostly cloudy skies overhead at this
time. Cloudy skies, along with post-frontal CAA, have kept temps
on the cool side today, with current readings ranging from the
low 50s across CENLA to the lower 60s across SE TX where more
breaks in the clouds are noted.

Tonight, the coastal low will continue to track east across the
FL Panhandle, while the upper low will shift towards MS/AL. As
this occurs, skies will gradually clear out as we head towards
sunrise, while winds will begin to relax. Tomorrow looks like a
near picture perfect day, with sunny skies and highs around 70
degrees on tap. Surface high pressure current over west-central TX
will shift east and become situated nearly overhead by the evening
hours, allowing winds to decrease further through the later half
of the day.

Dry and mild weather continues into Tuesday as the surface high
continues to traverse the northern Gulf Coast. Winds return to an
onshore flow by early Tuesday, which will slowly begin to bring
back some warmer and more humid air. As a result, afternoon highs
will be a bit warmer on Tues, topping out in the low to mid 70s.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Warming/moistening trend continues into the second half of the
work week, with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s on Wed
(except near the coast). Wed afternoon, a mid/upper level
shortwave will slide across north TX/OK, approaching the Ark-La-
Tex by the evening/overnight period. This will provide support
for shower activity, and while most of the better lift will be
displaced to our north we may see some isolated showers and a
thunderstorm or two across the northern half of the region. The
best chance for rain will be through the evening into the
overnight period, with the trough ejecting east after midnight.

Dry and warm weather returns for Thursday, followed by another
more potent system Fri into the weekend. Still some disagreements
between the long range models regarding this next system,
particularly on timing as well as how far south any significant
severe weather will make it. For now, it looks like the better
dynamics for severe weather will be displaced to our north
however, definitely something to keep an eye on through the
coming week. Regardless, it looks like rain chances will increase
through Fri PM into Sat AM as a a robust low pressure system and
associated cold front swing across the Plains and MS Valley. Rain
chances taper off by Sat afternoon, with a return of more seasonal
temps behind the front.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

MVFR to IFR CIGs and breezy winds with frequent gusts will
continue this afternoon and into tonight. BPT and LCH should lift
to VFR through the late afternoon, while the remaining sites will
maintain MVFR into the overnight period. Near or just after
midnight, winds should relax a bit, while CIGs should become VFR
area-wide. Remaining cloud cover then begins to clear out
completely towards the end of the TAF period, with winds remaining
light to moderate out of the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Small Craft Advisories remain in place across all zones through
12Z tomorrow due to strong northwest winds and elevated seas
behind a cold front passage. In addition, another Low Water
Advisory is in effect from 3 AM tonight through noon tomorrow.
Winds and seas begin to gradually decrease from west to east
throughout tomorrow as high pressure settles overhead. Offshore
flow continues into Monday, before winds shift to onshore Tuesday
through Friday.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  41  69  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  44  70  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  44  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-470.

     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to noon CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ452-455-472-
     475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17