Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
146 FXUS64 KLCH 142317 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 617 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week, with moisture returning throughout Thursday as onshore flow becomes reestablished - The next chance of rain will be Friday and Saturday as an upper trough and cold front approach from the west. For now, rain chances remain rather low, and will largely depend on moisture return through the late week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Ridging remains in place overhead along with high pressure at the surface. Conditions will remain dry and warm for most of the week with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will remain light for the majority of the week as the high is advected to our northeast. Through Thursday, the forecast will be a persistence forecast with no rain and clear skies. Similar to daytime highs being several degrees higher than normal, overnight lows are also running about 5 degrees above normal for this time of the year. This pattern will remain in place until Friday when the ridging will finally be pushed out of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The immediate change in our weather pattern will be the increase in moisture as the high pressure to our east will cause our winds to become southerly. This moist air mass will cause our PoPs to increase on Friday, and we could see typical air mass thunderstorms in the afternoon. Aloft, a shortwave trough will move across the central plains with its associated cold front moving across the region Saturday and Sunday. This will be the best chance for rain in the forecast with the possibility of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The SPC has highlighted an area to our north for the possibility of severe weather on Saturday. Depending on the evolution of the wave, we could see that severe threat shift south. Either way, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast for the next several days. After the front, more high pressure will move in, but temperatures will moderate with highs only in the mid-80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Light NE winds will become light and variable to calm overnight, before increasing again tomorrow through the mid/late morning. Otherwise, clear skies continue to prevail with no deviations from VFR expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Offshore winds will continue with little change in the forecast for the rest of the week. On Friday, winds will become onshore and increase to 15 knots. Through the week, waves will remain below 4 feet. Rain chances will return on Friday with a cold front expected on either Saturday or Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Low RH and dry conditions will keep fire concerns elevated across the region. Currently, multiple Parishes have burn bans in place across Acadiana along with counties in southeast Texas. Conditions will start to improve on Friday as south winds will bring in more moisture. Rain chances will increase this weekend with the passage of a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 57 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 62 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 61 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 63 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...17