780
FXUS64 KLCH 150437
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1037 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

With a surface ridge building in and a dry airmass in place, it
should be a quiet weather night. Clear skies, light winds, and
chilly temperatures look to be in store for the forecast area. No
changes to the forecast at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Afternoon surface analysis shows last night`s cold front moving
through the FL Panhandle, while high pressure is centered over
Texas. Across the forecast area, a very pleasant afternoon has
unfolded, with temperatures currently in the low to mid 70s amid
clear skies and light north winds. Northerly flow has ushered in a
seasonal and dry airmass that will hang around through tomorrow,
before moisture begins to return by the start of the weekend.

Tonight into tomorrow, high pressure over TX will gradually slide
NE towards the Great Lakes, allowing surface winds to become more
easterly by tomorrow evening. Aloft, weak upper ridging, current
situated across TX and the Plains, will shift east and become
situated over the E CONUS by tomorrow evening. This will result
in another dry, sunny, and mild day across the CWA, with highs
again warming into the low to mid 70s.

Heading into the weekend, surface winds gradually shift SErly
throughout Saturday while upper ridging amplifies over the E
CONUS. This will allow moisture to quickly return, with dewpoints
increasing from the mid 40s to low 50s near sunrise into the upper
50s to low 60s by Sat afternoon. In addition, highs will top out
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday afternoon. Overnight
lows will however, be where the moisture return becomes most
apparent, when after a couple of mornings in the 40`s to lower
50`s lows jump to the upper 50s to upper 60s Sat night/Sun
morning.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Moisture return continues in earnest through the second half of
the weekend and first half of the work week, as southeasterly
surface winds begin to strengthen overhead in response to a
tightening pressure gradient. On Sunday, surface high pressure
will be over the Carolinas while a cold front will be taking shape
over the Plains. Aloft, E CONUS ridging continue while an upper
level low deepens over northern Mexico. Moving into the work
week, the upper low induces a surface low along the aforementioned
cold front, with both lows ejecting NEwrd across the southern
Plains on Monday. As this occurs, it will drag the cold front
across TX and the pressure gradient overhead will tighten further.
Moisture will gradually increase Sunday into early Monday, before
surging above the 90th percentile by the second half of Monday.

This moisture surge will coincide with the leading edge of the
approaching cold front, resulting in rain chances increasing
generally from west to east throughout Monday and into Monday
night. At this time, it looks like most of the upper level energy
will be further displaced to our north/northwest, so a significant
severe weather event looks unlikely for the local area however,
wouldn`t be surprised to see at least a Marginal Risk outlined
overhead on Monday. Regardless, this boundary will bring increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms that will begin to taper off
through the first half of Tuesday as the boundary moves across
the area. There is some disagreement in how much we fully dry out
late Tuesday through Wednesday, with the Euro keeping moisture and
in turn small rain chances in place while the GFS dries us out
completely. NBM pretty much splits the two solutions, so we`ll
have to wait and see how this plays out over the next few days.

Temperature wise, Sunday through Tuesday will see above average
temps with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in
the low 60s to low 70s. Fortunately, this next front does look
like it will bring us some much cooler air, with near to below
normal temps expected through the second half of next week. Wed
highs look to reach into the upper 60s to low 70s, while Thurs may
bring out coldest day of the season so far, with highs currently
forecasted to only top out in the low to mid 60s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

No change in thinking with the latest terminal forecast package. High
pressure in control at the surface and a dry air mass aloft will
mean mainly clear skies are expected through the period. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then from the east-northeast
on Friday at less than 10 knots. VFR conditions to prevail.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Winds and seas will continue to subside overnight while shifting
more NErly. Light NE winds will prevail through tomorrow, becoming
E to SE over the weekend. Winds and seas will remain light until
late Sunday when the pressure gradient starts to tighten once
again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  48  72  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  48  73  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  49  74  55  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07