335
FXUS64 KLCH 281100
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
500 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions are on tap for today

- Very warm and dry weather will continue through early Monday

- Showers and thunderstorms return for Mardi Gras, with a risk of
  severe thunderstorms increasing north of U.S. 190.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 405 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
TX Hill Country ridging ewd across the wrn/cntl Gulf Coast
regions. Water vapor imagery shows a nearly zonal mid/upper-level
flow aloft. Outside of some Pacific high level moisture leading to
quite a bit of cirrus across the region, the combo of these
features was leading to a deep layer of dry air across the region
with skies otherwise clear. The drier air was also leading to a
dearth of fog development so far tonight. Regional 88Ds were also
PPINE.

The short term continues to look generally dry across the forecast
area. The nearly zonal flow aloft is progged to continue through
tonight before a weak shortwave pushes ewd across the region and a
brief spell of a more nwrly flow develops behind a digging long
wave trof axis over the ern CONUS. This feature will also be
accompanied by a sfc trof/weak frontal boundary set to cross the
area on Saturday. In fact, slightly above normal high temps today
are forecast to further warm to well above seasonal norms in the
mid/upper 70s for Saturday.

By Sunday, moisture begins to increase across the area as sfc
high pressure moves east of the region, allowing for a low-level return
flow to develop. Meanwhile, weak ridging is progged to develop
aloft in response to a cutoff low shifting ewd out of the Rockies.
Temperatures are progged to moderate somewhat with highs back into
the more seasonal upper 60s/lower 70s.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Rain chances actually sneak back into the forecast for much of the
forecast area at the very end of the short term as lift associated
with the ewd-moving cutoff infiltrates the region while a deeper
srly flow develops, increasing moisture through the column.

However rain chances significantly increase on Tuesday, just in
time to potentially ruin Mardi Gras plans across the area. A
significant Pacific storm system set to move ashore along the West
Coast late in the weekend is progged to continue ewd through the
early part of next week. With mid/upper-level flow set to turn
more srly in advance of this system, forecast soundings indicate
moisture jumping starting late Monday and continuing into Tuesday.
Forecast soundings show the best moisture expected over e-cntl LA
with mean RH values around 75 percent and PWAT values around 1.6
inches (above the 90th percentile per SPC climo). Meanwhile, the
advancing cutoff will also help initiate sfc low development over
the srn Plains towards the Ozarks with an initial trailing cold
front extending back swwd through the ArkLaTex to Deep South TX.
As lift increases across the forecast area, forecast soundings
indicate more than sufficient instability/CAPE/shear will be in
place for potential severe weather, especially over our nrn zones
where in addition, 0-3 km helicity values could exceed 500. These
storms could potentially start out as discrete cells before
evolving into a squall line with the sfc boundary. As of now, the
vast majority of the forecast area has been included in a 15
percent chance for severe weather per SPC (the 30 percent area
which just clipped our nrn-most zones has been shifted nwd and out
of the forecast area this morning). The showers/storms should
depart the region from west to east Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours as the shortwave/sfc front cross the forecast
area.

A secondary sfc boundary is set to sweep through the region early
Wednesday with a much better cool down anticipated behind it
(highs back into the upper 60s/lower 70s). Thereafter, the
remainder of the forecast period looks dry as a nwrly flow aloft
lingers while sfc high pressure gradually builds across, then east
of the region.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions with just passing cirrus are expected for the bulk
of the forecast period with forecast soundings showing very
limited moisture. The swrn terminals should see at least minor
restrictions to visibility late in the period as they get a brief
shot of better onshore low-level flow, with KBPT possibly seeing
dense fog...have capped at 1SM for now.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

We`re looking at potential headlines on the coastal waters late in
the weekend as the gradient tightens with lower pressures over the
Plains. A stronger onshore flow looks likely early in the new week
ahead of the Tuesday night storm system.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  47  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  71  51  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  73  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  73  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25