Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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899 FXUS64 KLCH 061126 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 626 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Tropical storm Milton continues to strengthen over the SW Gulf of Mexico this morning, a distinctive system on IR satellite imagery as deep convection develops near the center. Further north, a weak surface trough is noted over the north central Gulf, with high pressure ridging from the mid Atlantic into E TX north of the trough. Aloft, a SW to NE oriented trough axis also persists over the northern Gulf, with a sharp moisture gradient noted on WV imagery across the NW Gulf coast. Conditions are mild and muggy across the area this morning under mostly clear skies. Temperatures are in the middle 60s to lower 70s with light to near calm winds across the region. The main weather message for the upcoming forecast period will be the passage of a cold front on Monday, which will bring cool and dry weather through the workweek. This period of tranquil weather will unfortunately result in an increased risk of drought, and the latest Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions across SE TX into SW LA. The Drought Outlook for October suggests that drought will further develop through the next few weeks. While no significant impacts are expected to the local area from TC Milton, the system will no doubt be watched over the coming days as it is expected to quickly strengthen into a Hurricane as it crosses the southern Gulf, and could potentially reach major hurricane strength as it approaches the FL peninsula. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Dry and benign conditions are expected to prevail through the short term period. Surface ridging will persist today across the region while a cold front poised across the central US slides south toward the area tonight. The front is expected to move through the area on Monday and into the northern Gulf Monday night. A gradual reduction in PWAT values is expected today into tonight as drier air aloft advects into the region, and this along with limited stability will keep FROPA dry on Monday. Surface high pressure will build south across the northern and central US, with northerly winds bringing this cool and dry airmass into the region through the early to middle part of the week. Above normal temperatures are expected through Monday with highs today and Monday climbing into the lower 90s across much of the area, while overnight lows will again be in the middle 60s to around 70. Cooler temperatures will begin to filter into the region Monday evening, with lows falling back close to climo levels in the upper 50s north to lower/middle 60s south. Daytime highs on Tuesday will also be close to seasonal normals with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, while even cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday night as the surface ridge builds further into the region with lows falling into the middle 50s north and upper 50s/around 60 along and south of I-10. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The dry and uneventful weather pattern will persist through the long term period as a trough over the eastern US and ridging across the SW maintains a N-NW flow aloft through the end of the week. By the weekend, the high over the southwest is expected to transition east toward the middle to lower MS Valley and this will allow a gradual uptick in temperatures by the weekend, while the surface high will settle over the SE states. 24 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR will prevail through the period, with generally clear skies expected although FEW-SCT CU will be possible during the afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly around 10 KT today. A few higher gusts will be possible, but should stay below 20 KT. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Moderate to occasionally strong easterly winds will prevail through the weekend between high pressure to the north and Tropical Cyclone Milton over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing wave heights will also be possible over the outer coastal waters by late tonight into Monday as Milton tracks east across the southern Gulf. Small craft advisories are in effect for the outer coastal waters due to winds today, but this advisory will continue into Monday morning as seas are expected to build. Rain chances will continue to decrease over the coastal waters through Monday, with a dry cold front expected to move through the area. Strong offshore flow will develop behind the front from Monday into Tuesday, and Small Craft Advisories will likely remain in effect and possibly expanded during this timeframe. Offshore flow will gradually diminish through the latter half of the week, with winds veering more east by the weekend. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 65 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 90 69 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 92 70 92 63 / 10 10 0 0 BPT 93 69 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24