Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
054 FXUS64 KLCH 041153 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 653 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some drier air will continue over the area through this evening with lower rain chances while lower humidity helps keep the heat risk in check. - Expect a return to typical summertime pattern by the mid week. Moisture pooling in lower Acadiana may result in higher rain chances in this area compared to everyone else. - Temperatures and precipitation are favored to lean normal to slightly above normal through the 2nd week of August basis the latest climatological forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Dry, northerly flow will result in another day of quiet weather with little to no PoPs. Increasing heights will result in slightly warmer temperatures today, but with the dry conditions, Heat Indices should only max out in the 95 to 103F range. Late Monday into Tuesday, trof amplifies down through the heart of Louisiana. This could result in a pooling of moisture within Lower Acadiana, and thus very slightly higher PoPs (30 to 45%) will be possible during daytime hours. Heat conditions should be very slightly elevated from Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s and HIs topping out in the upper 90s to 105F range. Wednesday`s pattern appears similar to Tuesday, expect similar conditions. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Weakness lingering into the longterm period will allow a semi-return to normal summertime pattern. Hot and mostly dry inland with daily chances of PoPs at coastlines on the seabreeze. High pressure does appear to hang around from the southwest US, so higher heights in western zones will likely bring about hotter conditions through this area. However, with dry fetch off inland areas will keep the daily Heat Index in check. As heights increase from the west, expect a heating trend to return from west to east (highest highs in west areas, lower to the east thanks to area rainfall.) A return to highs in the mid to upper 90s is possible for those north and west, highs topping in the lower 90s towards the coastline. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the remainder of the morning hours. SCT to BKN clouds around 3kft expected to thin with increasing diurnal heating/mixing but liable to maintain similar VFR ceilings as thunderstorm complex passes to the west with some VCTS possible across southeast TX. Chances of precip remain lower across south central LA through the afternoon hours. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 With boundary situated over coastal waters, expect elevated rain chances to persist in the evenings and overnight hours. A trof moves into the northeast Gulf which will keep elevated rain chances for coastal waters into majority of the next work week. Outside of nearby showers and thunderstorms, wind and seas are forecast to remain low and offshore through the forecast time frame. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Northerly flow will persist with a fetch of drier air filtering down from the northwest. There is a low chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in very coastal areas. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions expected today. Tuesday, a trof moves into the region which may induce localized moisture and rain chances in Lower Acadiana Tuesday and Wednesday. North of this corridor should remain dry but with moisture still in place. Minimum RH values today into the start of the work week will vary in the 40 to 70 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 70 95 72 / 0 0 20 10 LCH 93 73 93 75 / 10 10 30 20 LFT 92 74 93 74 / 10 10 40 20 BPT 93 73 93 75 / 20 10 30 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30