Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
400 FXUS64 KLCH 102313 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 613 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild conditions are anticipated through the weekend thanks to cooler airmass in place and high pressure overhead. - With the potential for breezy northeast winds, dry antecedent conditions, and low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires again through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Those out and about early this morning were greeted with quite a cool start to the day! Morning temps were in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region, and dry air has only continued to filter into the northern Gulf. Temps have so far struggled to break into the 80s, but should still top out in the mid 80s area wide by afternoon. Over the weekend, features are set to move around the US. Incredibly, this will have very little change to the forecast here. Two tropical cyclones, Priscilla and Raymond, are moving north along the Baja Peninsula of western MX. As they move north, ridge currently situated over southwest Texas will shunt north and east, its axis lining right along the TX/LA border. In response, weak trof over the Deep South will become rather amplified with subsequent sfc low expected to develop off the east coast late Sat/early Sun. Between the upper ridge and deepening trof, north winds will prevail. While conditions will remain dry on this flow, rising heights from the ridge will pump temps into the upper 80s to around 90 once again Saturday and Sunday. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Upper ridge remains staunchly overhead to start the next work week in almost a pseudo omega-block type pattern. The coastal low should push up the eastern seaboard later Mon/Tue. At the same time, a strong low pressure system is set to come ashore along the west coast. By mid week, influence from west coast low and departure of east coast low will allow upper ridge to spread into the east US, while also weakening slightly. The sudden pressure falls over the Gulf may allow for an upper disturbance to develop along the west Gulf Thursday, but no tropical systems are anticipated. Guidance hasn`t quite figured out what the west coast low will do beyond late Wednesday. Although ridging moves around the US, its influence will still be a large driver of the long term forecast. Next work week will remain dry with above average temps in the upper 80s, again, due to the interaction of dry airmass, lack of cloud cover and under rising heights. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 VFR and light winds through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Winds and seas are on the way down behind the departing cold front. Outer seas 20 to 60 nm will hold into the late night hours tonight, finally relaxing into Saturday morning. High pressure will remain in control of the forecast through at least the middle of next work week resulting in a prolonged period of low winds and seas and dry, clear skies. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Cool, breezy and dry conditions ongoing today in the wake of passing cold front Thursday. Expect dry with warming temperatures but persistent northeast winds to prevail over the weekend between upper ridge developing in east central Texas and upper trough developing to the east. Temps will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 each day through the mid week as high pressure sits right overhead. No notable Gulf fetch expected to return until perhaps the middle of next week. This will result in a prolonged period of low humidities each day. Minimum RH values 25 to 35 percent can be expected. Overnight maximum RH values from 75 to 95 percent give indication that moisture will not rebound completely each night. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 83 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 85 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 85 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 88 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...05