429
FXUS64 KLCH 010229
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
929 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A very moist and unstable environment still exists across the
forecast area despite sunset. The 01/00z upper air sounding from
KLCH had a PWAT values at 2.35 inches. The cluster of storms in
northern Louisiana was able to hold together with the moist and
unstable environment and move into central Louisiana. However,
instability is expected to decrease over the next couple of hours
and would expect this activity to weaken and diminish by midnight
as it tries to move into Acadiana.

For the remainder of the night, with such a moist airmass, would
not be surprised to see nocturnal shower activity to form
overnight just off the coast with an enhanced land breeze.
However, with mean mid level flow from the north, would expect
activity to stay offshore.

Grids and forecast has been updated to reflect the latest radar
trends and short term guidance.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

There have been no significant changes in forecast thinking and
the overall synoptic setup. We still have an extensive upper level
ridge that expands over the Gulf Coast States along with another
upper ridge over the Atlantic Coast. Newly formed TD3 is over the
Bay of Campeche, however it is expected to move inland into Mexico
tonight. Any moisture from this system is not expected to reach
this far north. No other impacts can be expected from this system.

We do have some sea breeze / diurnally driven isolated showers and
storms that have continued to pop up this afternoon. Coverage is
widely isolated and is expected to remain that way until we see this
activity taper out with the loss of heating.

There is a cold front stretched from parts of Texas and into the
Southeastern States. While the front is set to move through the area
Monday and into Tuesday, we will not receive significantly cooler or
drier air as a result. Winds will temporarily shift out of the north
tomorrow as the surface high pressure builds into the area.
Unfortunately it moves off quickly with flow reorganizing out of
the south on Tuesday.

Heat Advisories at a minimum will be the story for the short term
period. We have one today, one was issued for the same time
tomorrow, and it is highly likely that we will have one for Tuesday.
In regards to tomorrow, heat indices are approaching Excessive Heat
Warning criteria and an upgrade is certainly not out of the realm of
possibility.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

By Wednesday a large high pressure cell previously centered over
the Great Lakes region now moves off the coast of New England with
modest ridging extending toward the Appalachia Bay / Nrn Florida
before broadening across the central Gulf of Mexico. Locally,
this places SETX and SWLA along the SW periphery of the sfc high
pressure pattern while the upper level pattern continues to
maintain a large ridge axis from Tx to then Carolinas. With slack
to broad troughing along the western Gulf, continued coastal
summertime showers / storms are fair game with signals of a trough
retrograding west across the area before dissipating from
intruding dry air along in Tx. Thus a hardly noticeable reduction
in diurnal temperatures will occur with greater cloud coverage and
any associated precipitation. Thursday, the upper level ridging
broadens / weakens as an upper level trough develops over West
gulf and shifts inland across NE Mexico into Friday. A gradual
increase in diurnal temperatures is expected through the end of
the week as the surface ridge continues to broaden over eastward.
Given the persistent southerly onshore flow, those summertime
thunderstorms will continue to initiate along Srn parts of
Louisiana and Texas on an isolated scale.

The start of the upcoming weekend has in store a shortwave trough
further upstream. This feature will deepen south over the Midwest
with surface low shifting east over the Great Lakes. South of this
region of more convergent upper level pattern remains a boundary at
the surface draped across the ARKLATEX and TN Valley through
Saturday. While the boundary is not forecast to shift into SETX and
SWLA, signals for increase POPs occur into the weekend areawide.
Meanwhile the upper level ridge begins to modify and narrow along
off the Carolinas and SECONUS. Currently, there are no tropical
impacts forecast for SETX and SWLA over the next 4-5 days.

 Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Will be watching cluster of thunderstorms over northern Louisiana
moving southward to see if they hold together and can affect the
KAEX terminal. Otherwise, other pop-up showers and storms will
be possible through sunset or about 01/02Z.

Once convection diminishes, VFR conditions with light winds and
high level cloudiness will occur.

On Monday, a decent coverage of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours as a
surface boundary moves into the forecast area and combine with a
moist and unstable environment.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas.
Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  97  76  98 /  30  50  10  20
LCH  80  95  80  94 /  10  70  20  40
LFT  82  97  81  96 /  20  80  20  60
BPT  79  97  80  96 /  10  50  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07