Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
629 FXUS64 KLCH 161104 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Onshore flow will slowly filter Gulf moisture inland this evening through Saturday night. However, afternoon minimum RH will still fall toward 35-50% through Friday north of I-10. - Chances for precipitation increase a little late Friday with more notable chances developing Saturday into early Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend with slightly cooler highs trending into the middle of the following work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A very strong upper level ridge remains over the central Gulf this morning while surface ridging continues to be the strongest over the Great Lakes region broadening south along the Mississippi Valley. This pattern carries a strong temperature inversion near 850mb, noted on the 16th/00Z sounding, which promotes decent inhibition for precipitating weather. That said, as expected under high pressure regimes, daytime high temperatures are lofted 3-5F above normal. These temps will continue hedge into the upper 80`s with some locations across CenLA flirting with 90F. Ridging over the Gulf and surface high pressure to our north will later consolidate through Friday across the SECONUS placing SETX / SWLA along a more favorable region for onshore moisture advection. We will notice evening lows become warmer into the weekend. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is forecast to deepen across the Plains with a cold front developing along the boundary between moist gulf air and dry continental air Saturday above the ARKLATEX area. Overall, guidance has trended down the chances of precipitation Saturday given a weak forcing aloft and sub par instability profile. Areas north of CenLA stand a better chance for more organized activity where low-mid level forcing is stronger. That said, do believe this warm advection will result is in additional cloud cover and isolated to briefly scattered showers. A few weak storms may muster up as well, but do want to stress the lack of favorable instability. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Sunday, there will still be some leftover morning chances for isolated showers before the frontal boundary ushers in more dry air again into our area. Cooler air will be observed by that night with mid 50`s possible north of HWY 190. Even the locations further south along / below I-10 will also see a 8-10F drop in lows compared to Saturday night. High temperatures going forward into the new week will still remain a couple degrees above normal but slightly milder back to the mid 80`s Monday. Isolated chances develop late Tuesday as onshore flow resumes once again whilst the surface front washes out offshore. However, guidance has shown these to be limited chances with likely a similar capping inversion helping prevent much organized showers or convection. Another frontal system is forecast to move through the Mississippi Valley, however, it`s highly questionable the effect this far south given the placement of the Jet and parent low deepening over the upper midwest. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Mainly clear skies and light winds with VFR conditions to start the TAF period. Weak surface ridge will continue to move off to the east today with light winds less than 10 knots becoming more from the southeast. Any moisture return looks shallow so VFR conditions expected to persist through the day into tonight. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Winds will gradually shift ESE to SE today through Fri as surface high pressure moves off to our east. Tonight into Fri, winds will begin to increase slightly, with gusts around 15-18 kts. Now through the weekend, waves will range 1 - 3 ft. Rain chances will return on late Friday and continue until the passage of a cold front on Sunday. Brief onshore flow will take place before resuming onshore Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Low RH and dry conditions will keep fire concerns elevated across the region again today. However, onshore flow will help raise RH this evening. Currently, multiple parishes have burn bans in place across Acadiana along with counties in southeast Texas. Conditions will start to improve further Friday under south winds with continued moisture advection. Rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend with the approach and passage of an upper trough and cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 87 67 87 70 / 0 0 10 0 LFT 87 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 86 69 86 71 / 0 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07