011
FXUS64 KLCH 022300
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
600 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions will continue each day today through Saturday
  as a series of low pressure systems develop over Texas and the
  southern plains.

- A Wind Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory are in effect through
  this evening/tonight and again from Thursday morning through
  Thursday evening.

- The next significant rain chances will be over the weekend with
  a strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Wednesday afternoon surface analysis shows strong low pressure
near Iowa/Nebraska, with a cold front draped from the low towards
the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a tight pressure
gradient is in place across much of the Ohio and lower MS Valley
region, resulting in very strong winds and a large swath of Wind
Advisories from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Across the
forecast area, frequent gusts in the 20-40 kts range have been
ongoing since this morning, and are expected to persist through
sunset. Therefore, decided to extend today`s Wind Advisory through
10PM tonight across the entire forecast area. Otherwise, warm,
humid, and cloudy conditions are ongoing and will continue into
tonight, with lows only falling into the lower 70s, roughly 15-20
degrees above seasonal norms.

Tomorrow and Friday look to be pretty much a rinse a repeat of
today`s forecast with more warm, humid, and breezy weather on tap.
The aforementioned surface low will eject off towards the Great
Lakes tonight and eventually towards New England by Friday, while
the cold front will gradually stall and become draped west to east
across the center of the country. Several weak surface lows are
expected to develop along the front through the end of the week,
keeping the pressure gradient overhead tight and in turn winds
remain elevated overhead. Cloudy skies and relatively dry weather
continue tomorrow, while low end rain chances return to the
forecast on Friday, mainly for the northern half of the area.
Otherwise, temperatures remain well above seasonal norms with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Heading into the weekend, our next more potent storm system
arrives on Saturday and slowly moves through the area eventually
exiting off to our east by Sunday afternoon. Early Sat, another
cold front dives out of the Plains and towards the Ark-La-Tex,
absorbing what remains of the previous stalled boundary as it does
so. Rain chances will begin to increase across the NWrn parts of
the CWA by early Sat morning, with showers and storms then spread
east/southeast through the afternoon and into the overnight hours.
This front looks to be rather slow moving on Sat, with many areas
likely seeing a few to several hours of steady rainfall.
Therefore, WPC has outlined nearly the entire forecast area
(excluding the immediate coastline and St. Mary Parish) in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday. In
addition, some of these storms will have the potential to become
severe, with SPC including parts of CENLA in the Day 4 Enhanced
Risk and the remainder of the forecast area in the Slight Risk for
severe weather. With unseasonably warm, moist air overhead ahead
of the approach front, all modes of severe weather look possible
at this time.

Saturday night into early Sunday, convection begins to taper off
across the northwest and western parts of the CWA, while the
remainder of the region will likely still see at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms into Sunday morning behind the cold
front. Eventually, drier air begins to work its way down into the
area throughout Sunday, allowing linger precip to taper off
through Sunday afternoon. While dry air lags and rain continues,
cold air will arrive quickly post-frontal passage, with temps
falling rather substantially Sat night into Sun morning. The
combination of colder air and linger rain/cloud cover will result
in below average highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday, and
overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The remainder of the long term will consist of seasonal conditions
as post-frontal high pressure settles overhead. Mostly sunny
skies, dry conditions, and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s can
be expected Mon through Wed.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A windy south-southeast flow will continue during the period. IFR
to MVFR ceilings will occur most of the time, however brief breaks
in stratus may produce VFR conditions temporary through the next
hour or two and again Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

South winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots will
continue through the remainder of the work week, with Small Craft
Advisories continuing area-wide as a result. Seas will build in
response to between 4 and 10 feet. Areas of patchy marine fog will
be possible tonight, but should not become an issue to mariners.
Heading into the weekend, strong, gusty winds will persist as a
cold front approaches the region, with winds eventually relaxing
and shifting NW as the front moves across Sat evening through Sun
morning. This front will be accompanied by heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  88  72  88 /  10  10  10  30
LCH  73  84  73  84 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  73  85  74  85 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  73  85  74  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ073-074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
     TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05