Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
627 FXUS64 KLCH 301756 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure aloft will keep a dry air mass in place through midweek with no chance for rain, very warm days, and mild nights. - An slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing upper level disturbance will bring a small chance for rain late in the week into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 The upper ridge centered south of the central Gulf Coast is breaking down and slightly pushing westward, however flow aloft is and still will be out of the northwest. As a result, dry air will remain aloft. By late Thursday, we will see heights fall along the central to eastern Gulf Coast with a weakness forming. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 A pattern shift will continue into the long term period as the surface high progressively loses its influence and heights aloft fall. Winds at the surface will become more easterly, with moisture slowly seeping back into the region. This, in combination with the weakness forming over the Gulf, will introduce isolated to scattered showers back into the forecast for the rest of the long term period. Models are still not in agreement with the placement of the upper weakness, however there seems to be a bit of consensus that it will be over or around the central Gulf Coast to SE States. This will play a part in what areas will have the highest rainfall probabilities. Currently NBM is favoring the former, giving our coastal area the highest PoPs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 VFR conditions will persist past the end of this forecast period. Winds will be light and variable, with cloud cover increasing through the rest of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Surface high pressure ridging down into the coastal waters through mid week will keep a light to occasionally modest offshore flow to go along with mainly low seas. By the end of the week, the surface high will be ridging down from the Mid-Atlantic area, producing more of an easterly flow. No significant chance of shower activity is noted through mid week, with shower activity increasing toward the end of the week with an upper level disturbance developing over the northern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 A dry air mass will remain in place with no significant chance for rainfall through midweek. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to be between 30 and 45 percent today and Wednesday. Surface winds will remain from mainly the north and northeast at less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 20 LCH 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 30 LFT 67 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 30 BPT 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87