602
FXUS64 KLCH 032312
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
612 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions will continue each day today through Saturday
  as a series of low pressure systems develop over Texas and the
  southern plains.

- A Wind Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory are in effect through
  this evening/tonight and again from Friday morning through
  Friday evening.

- A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday. Storms
  with this cold front will have the potential to be severe with
  tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail all possible.

- Much cooler, drier air will move in behind the cold front
  Saturday night through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Another warm and humid spring day is ongoing across the forecast
area as breezy southerly winds continue to advect warm, moist air
inland off the Gulf. Like yesterday, a tight pressure gradient
across the southern US has resulted in strong onshore flow, with
frequent gusts above 30 kts having been noted area-wide since this
morning. As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through
7PM however, winds will still be breezy post-sunset just below
advisory criteria. Tonight, warm and humid air will again prevent
and decent cooling, with lows only expected to fall into the low
to mid 70s.

Tomorrow brings pretty much a repeat of today/yesterday`s weather
as surface low pressure across TX keeps strong onshore flow, and
in turn warm/moist air, in place across the region. Another Wind
Advisory has already been issued for tomorrow, starting along and
south of I-190 at 7AM and then expanding area-wide by 12PM. Again,
temps will warm into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, while lows
"fall" into the low to mid 70s.

The pattern then begins to evolve quickly as we head into the
weekend as a robust upper level trough slides across the Four
Corners region and towards central TX, pushing a cold front across
the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley. The boundary will make its way
into our SE TX counties by Sat afternoon/evening, pushing east
across the CWA Sat evening/night and eventually exiting off to our
east Sunday morning. This front will be accompanied by scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a risk of both flash
flooding and severe weather in place. SPC has outlined nearly the
entire region along and north of I-10 in an Enhanced Risk (level
3 of 5) for severe weather on Sat, while the remainder of the
region is included in the Slight Risk (2 of 5), with all modes of
severe weather possible. WPC has outlined nearly the entire region
(excluding lower Acadiana and the immediate coast) in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Sat, with the
coastal regions in the Marginal Risk (1 of 4). Both of these
threats should begin to ramp up across SE TX through the mid to
late morning, spreading eastward slowly from there through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Moving into the second half of the weekend, Saturday`s front will
be over SE LA by sunrise on Sunday. While the boundary will be to
our east, some shower activity may still be ongoing across lower
Acadiana Sun morning, as drier air will be slow to work its way
across the CWA post frontal passage. Lingering activity should
however, gradually taper off by the midday as dry air filters in
and dewpoints fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. The combination
of decent cold air advection and lingering cloud cover post-front
will result in a rather cool Sunday with highs ranging from the
low 60s across interior SE TX to the lower 70s across lower
Acadiana. Sunday night, lows fall into the mid to upper 40s,
which is around 10 degrees below seasonal norms.

The remainder of the long term brings dry and rather seasonal
weather as post-frontal surface high pressure traverses the
central and eastern CONUS. Highs will gradually moderate each day,
from the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday into the mid 70s to low 80s
by Thurs. Otherwise, dry and mostly sunny conditions can be
expected with no real concerns on the horizon for the time being.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Strong SE winds to continue. Mostly MVFR ceilings are anticipated
tonight along with thin br, however IFR stratus will be possible
late tonight into early Friday. Ceilings will gradually lift after
sunrise, but remain MVFR through mid day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

South winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots and seas of
6-10 feet will continue through Saturday. A cold front will push
through the coastal waters Saturday afternoon/night accompanied
by a squall line capable of producing severe weather including
damaging winds, large hail, waterspouts, frequent lightning and
heavy rainfall. Winds will turn offshore and relax behind the
front Saturday night and remain that way through mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  87  73  83 /  10  10  20  90
LCH  74  84  74  82 /   0  10  10  80
LFT  75  85  74  84 /   0   0   0  60
BPT  74  84  74  82 /   0  10  10  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-261-262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05