486
FXUS64 KLCH 191035
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
435 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows large 1040 mb fridge Arctic high pressure ridging
southward across the Central and Southern U.S. into the Southwest
Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 30s
across Inland Southeast Texas to mainly 40s across the remainder
of the area. The much colder air is just Northwest of the area,
and expecting it to reach Inland Southeast Texas and Central
Louisiana by daybreak with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Due
to the stronger northerly winds around 15 mph north of I-10,
15-20 mph further south, lowest wind chill temperatures of 18-25
degrees expected. Thus, the first Cold Weather Advisory continues
through 9 AM this morning. Satellite and surface obs continue to
show wrap around low clouds across

For the remainder of today, clear skies and windy conditions,
with the continued cold air advection keeping afternoon highs only
in the lower to mid 40s. For tonight into Monday morning, lows in
the lower 20s along and north of the U.S. 190 corridor, mid 20s
along the I-10 corridor, with upper 20s along the coastal parishes
and counties. With the continued northerly winds around 5 to 10
mph, Monday morning minimum wind chill temperatures from 12 to 17
degrees expected. The second Cold Weather Advisory issued for all
of Central and Southern Louisiana, Southeast Texas from 9 PM this
evening through Noon Monday.

With the entire U.S. entrenched in the large mid to upper level trough,
a shortwave rounding the base of the trough over Northern Mexico
is expected to move rapidly eastward Monday afternoon and evening.
This is expected to generate a surface low across the Western
Gulf of Mexico along the front, and move east northeast Monday
night into Tuesday. This surface low is expected to increase
clouds by Monday afternoon. The clouds, coupled with the continued
cold air advection, will limit afternoon highs in the upper 30s
to near 40. By the late evening hours, a mixture of snow, sleet
and possible freezing rain expected to begin across Southeast
Texas, Central and Southwest Louisiana. By Midnight through
Tuesday afternoon, moisture and lift increases dramatically as the
surface low intensifies across the Central Gulf of Mexico.
Probabilities of at least 1" of snow is now 80-90% across the
entire area. The highest probabilities of the most snowfall fall
between the U.S. 190 and I-10 corridors of Louisiana and Southeast
Texas, where we will be continuing the 4-6 inches of storm total
snowfall. Outside this band, 3-4 inches further north and south
can be expected. The best chances of the mixture of freezing
rain, sleet, and snow will continue across the coastal parishes
and counties, as well as the coastal lakes, bays, and coastal
waters out 20 nautical miles. Keep in mind, storm total snowfall
amounts will likely fluctuate a little up and down during the next
couple of days, but have generally been consistent in keeping the
highest totals somewhere along the U.S. 190 and I-10 corridors.
So, no changes in the Winter Storm Watch for the entire area at
this time, and will likely be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
either later today or tonight. For Tuesday high temperatures,
trending down, now expecting 30-32 for highs, and this could be on
the high side.

As the surface low moves across the Central and Eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday evening, expect the winter precipitation to end
from west to east as well. Clearing skies and winds expected to go
calm as the center of the cold frigid high settles over the
region. Depending on the amount of snow amounts that occurs, it
is expected most if not all of the area will have some degree of
snowpack on the ground. Thus, the coldest air of the season with
lower to mid teens expected by daybreak Wednesday. Winds expected
to be light to calm north of I-10, with northerly winds around 5
to 10 mph across the coastal parishes and counties.

Freezing temperatures expected to begin between 6-9 PM Monday
evening and continue through late morning/early afternoon Wednesday,
putting most if not all of the area around 30-36 hours below
freezing. To account for the wind chill and freezing temperatures,
the third Cold Weather Advisory continues for all of Central and
Southern Louisiana, Southeast Texas from 6 PM Monday evening
through Noon Wednesday.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)

After the frigid start Wednesday, afternoon highs not much better
with mid to upper 30s expected. Depending on the amount of
snowcover, these high temperatures could be too high, as some
preliminary numbers indicate highs only reaching near 32 across
some locations along the I-10 corridor. Another freeze expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows in the lower to
mid 20s. Highs in the mid 40s expected Thursday with increasing
clouds by afternoon as another cold front and surface high moves
south overnight. Another areawide freeze expected with lows in the
lower to mid 20s by Friday morning. Slightly warmer temperatures
in the 40s by Friday afternoon, with another freeze in the mid to
upper 20s Saturday morning. Finally, more significant warming
trend expected by Saturday with highs in the mid 50s to near 60,
and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.



&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

Low clouds at AEX/LFT/ARA around 3500 ft expected to gradually
thin out this morning, with VFR expected for the remainder of the
period. Expect northerly winds to increase to 18-20 kts with gusts
28-30 kts after daybreak at all sites as the cold air advection
continues across the area. Expect winds to subside to 5-8 kts
after 00z this evening.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...

A much colder air mass will continue to move south today through
most of the upcoming week, with strong and gusty northerly winds
to continue through the middle of this week. Small Craft Advisories
in effect for all coastal waters through Tuesday morning. A
surface low is expected to develop Monday across the Western Gulf
of Mexico along the front, and move east northeast Monday night
into Tuesday, allowing for stronger winds Monday night into
Tuesday, with Gale conditions possible. This surface low will also
generate widespread precipitation. With the cold air expected
Monday night into Tuesday, a mixture of rain, freezing rain, and
snow is likely across the inland lakes and bays, and coastal
waters out 20 nautical miles, with rain most likely across the 20
to 60 nautical mile zones.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  22  37  22 /   0   0   0  40
LCH  46  26  40  25 /   0   0   0  40
LFT  46  26  41  27 /   0   0   0  30
BPT  47  27  41  26 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08