748
FXUS64 KLCH 101111
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
611 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move
  west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week
  helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near
  the seabreeze boundary.

- A surge of deeper more tropical like moisture will move around
  the wave and into eastern portions of forecast area proving a
  risk of excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Afternoon convection has been spotty this afternoon with isolated
showers and thunderstorms forming along the sea-breeze boundary.
Aloft, an inverted trough is located in the northern Gulf and is
moving west. As the trough moves into Texas, we will remain under
a generally unstable pattern with lowered heights, leading to
afternoon convection and, in general, slightly lower temperatures.
The main limiting factor for afternoon convection will be dry air
in the mid to upper levels. HREF guidance puts mid-level RH
values around 30% across the region. Still, the environment
supports keeping PoPs in the 30 to 60% range on Sunday, with
higher chances near the coast mainly due to the seabreeze.

Heading into next week, a surge of tropical moisture will replace
the dry air, with PWATs approaching 2 inches across the region.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be likely. A few of the
thunderstorms could be on the stronger side so make sure to keep
an eye on the weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The upper-level troughing will continue to impact our weather on
Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread thunderstorms and a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding on both days. These will
be the wettest days of the forecast period with PWATs in the 90th
percentile, with values approaching 2.25 inches. This unstable
pattern will lead to slightly lower temperatures, with highs
expected in the low 90s instead of the mid 90s. Not a major
improvement, but we will take what we can get until fall.

Late in the week, Thursday and Friday, upper-level ridging will
begin to rebuild, leading to more typical summertime weather with
highs in the mid to upper 90s across the region. PoPs will stay on
the higher end as afternoon popup showers and storms will be
expected each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Scattered showers and storms are anticipated today along the I-10
corridor which may briefly reduce vis and ceilings. Otherwise
mostly VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light and east
to southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Winds and waves will remain light, with winds less than 10 knots
and waves between 1 and 3 feet. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day this week, with higher winds
and waves near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Minimum RH values will stay above 50% through the start of the
week with scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Winds will be light and variable, around 5 to 10 mph.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  73  94  73 /  20  10  60  20
LCH  92  76  92  76 /  40  40  80  30
LFT  91  75  91  75 /  50  20  80  20
BPT  92  75  92  75 /  40  40  70  30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  73  94  73 /  20  10  60  20
LCH  92  76  92  76 /  40  40  80  30
LFT  91  75  91  75 /  50  20  80  20
BPT  92  75  92  75 /  40  40  70  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05