258
FXUS64 KLCH 281218
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
618 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the
  week.

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching
  cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the
  beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 617 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cool and calm conditions are ongoing, with the base of high
pressure centered north of the ArkLaTx. Winds are light and
northerly to calm under clear skies, allowing for radiational
cooling into the 30s for nearly all of the CWA, except the
immediate coastline.

Today into tomorrow, the high pressure will migrate eastward
toward the Mid Atlantic as a disturbance exits the Rockies into
the Plains. A tightening pressure gradient will form between the
two, with elevated southerly flow becoming established. This will
promote rapid moisture advection into the region beginning
Saturday, with PWATs rising from near seasonal norms to near the
90th percentile by that evening, then closer to daily maxima by
early Sunday morning.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will begin early Saturday
morning, with numerous activity likely by late afternoon as the
cold front progresses closer to the region. A prolonged period of
showers and storms is expected, and given deep moisture and lift,
periods of heavy rainfall will be likely. As a result, WPC has
placed nearly all of the CWA, except parts of Acadiana and the
Atchafalaya Basin, in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on
Saturday. In addition to the flooding threat, there is also a risk
of severe weather, with damaging wind gusts and hail as the main
threats.

Showers will continue into Sunday, slowly tapering as the front
clears the area, with light overrunning behind it. Overall totals
for the 48 hour period have decreased slightly and are now around
0.75 to 1.75 inches, with probabilities of exceeding 2 inches in
the 20 to 50 percent range.

Not much dry air will follow the front, however it will be
cooler, not only due to the post frontal airmass, but also
because cloud cover and lingering showers will limit daytime
temperatures Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 617 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cooler and rainy weather will continue into the early part of the
long term as another surge of moisture moves in, driven by a low
taking shape off the coast of South Texas. Guidance remains split,
but there is improving agreement that the low will remain
offshore. This presents another chance for heavy rain, hence the
Marginal Risk ERO for Monday.

The low and associated moisture are expected to be pushed eastward
on Tuesday as cool high pressure builds into the Central and
Southern Plains. This will drive temperatures well below seasonal
normals for over half of the long term period. Lows in particular
will be chilly, with near freezing temperatures Monday night,
then subfreezing values Tuesday night for over half of the CWA.

Temperatures will return to near normal toward the end of the
period as the surface high drifts east and southerly flow resumes.
Once again, another coastal low could develop.. However, model
guidance remains highly inconsistent with timing and placement.
Nevertheless, rain chances appear likely Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated today and this evening with winds
veering from northeast this morning to southeast this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 617 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Today into the weekend, winds will turn east and eventually
southeast, steadily increasing once again. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the outer coastal waters beginning at 6 AM,
with an extended period of SCA conditions expected for all waters
tonight into the weekend.

In addition, a cold front approaching from the west this weekend
will bring an increased chance of rain Saturday afternoon through
early next week, with rain chances peaking Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Post frontal winds will become northerly and
remain strong and gusty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 617 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Very dry air will linger through today, with minimum RH values in
the mid 20s to mid 30s. On Saturday, moisture will return quickly
as breezy onshore flow develops. An approaching cold front will
bring increasing rain chances by early Saturday for SETX,
spreading east throughout Saturday and Saturday night. Rain
chances will continue post frontal passage Sunday through
Tuesday, with moisture lingering. While truly dry air will not
arrive until late Tuesday, cold air advection will bring a much
colder airmass into the region beginning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  41  68  43 /   0  30  50  90
LCH  63  48  73  51 /   0  10  40  80
LFT  62  44  72  53 /   0   0  20  70
BPT  65  54  75  51 /   0  20  40  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ470-472-
     475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05