338
FXUS63 KLBF 161723
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures from 80 to 85 today. Elevated fire
  weather conditions with widespread RH of 10 to 20 percent.
  Winds will be fairly light however.

- A strong cold front passage on Thursday. An increased threat
  for for showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.
  Some strong to low end severe storms are possible across
  southwest into central Nebraska late afternoon/early evening,
  and further north into north central Nebraska through late
  evening.

- Colder Thursday night into Friday with snow possible across the
  eastern panhandle and northwest Sandhills.

- A secondary system will track across the Southern Plains and
  portions of the Central Plains Saturday into Sunday.
  Precipitation is likely to focus across Kansas into southeast
  Nebraska, with mainly a slight chance for showers across the
  southeastern half of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs 80 to 85. An
upper trough will drop through Montana into Utah and Wyoming. This
will push a cold front through northeast Wyoming and northwest South
Dakota this afternoon, with compressional heating and a strong
thermal ridge in place across western Nebraska. Winds become west 10
to 20 mph across the western Sandhills behind a pre-frontal surface
trough, and lighter winds to the east. Afternoon humidity falling to
10 to 15 percent most areas. Southerly winds 5 to 15 mph in the
east. With gusts expected to remain 20 mph or less, elevated fire
conditions are expected.

Tonight, a weak disturbance in Colorado will move across southern
Nebraska, a bring a slight chance for light rain showers to areas
mainly south of Highway 2 and 91. There could be a few embedded
thunderstorms, but are favored to be more across northern Kansas
into south central/southeast Nebraska. A cold front will also move
into the northwest Sandhills after midnight. Lows will be mild from
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday, the upper trough will remain positively tilted and is
forecast to extend from Saskatchewan Canada through central Montana
and eastern Nevada. Southwest flow aloft persists over the region,
with a cold front advancing through the forecast area by 18Z. The
colder air will lag further behind from near the NE/SD border into
SD at this time. Highs behind the front will reach from near 50 at
Gordon, mid 60 central areas to the mid 70s southeast. Becoming
windy as northwest winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Could see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop later
afternoon into early evening behind the cold front across portions
of southwest into central Nebraska, with better chances from showers
across the northwest. The latest NAM12 shows MUCAPEs 250-500J/KG
late afternoon/early evening southwest into central Nebraska.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the H8 front. MUCAPES may
increase to 500 to near 1000J/KG across central Nebraska into
eastern parts of nctrl Nebraska mid and late evening, where elevated
thunderstorms are possible. The main severe threat will be
marginally severe hail up to 1 inch diameter with the stronger
storms.

Across the northwest Sandhills, showers area likely Thursday night.
The northwest Sandhills and eastern panhandle will likely see a mix
of rain/snow change to snow late evening and overnight. Most models
do generate some light snow accumulations, though some will melt
with warmer ground temperatures. Current forecast does have up to a
half inch possible across the northwest Sandhills, mainly on grassy
surfaces.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Much cooler behind the front on Friday with cloudy skies and light
showers possible. Some light snow may also linger across the
northwest. Highs from the mid to upper 40s. Shower chances diminish
or end  Friday night into Saturday as the northern stream upper
trough approaches the western Great Lakes.

Models still forecast an upper trough in the southern stream east of
the Four Corners on Saturday. The base of this trough will move
into western Oklahoma and western Kansas Saturday night into eastern
Kansas and Iowa/Missouri on Sunday. Most models bring this across
Nebraska as an open trough, with most of the precipitation well
southeast of the area. The 00Z ECMWF still maintains a closed low
with light precipitation on the backside catching southeastern
portions of the forecast area. The current forecast is trending
towards a drier forecast Saturday night into Sunday. Highs in the
50s Saturday warm slightly into the upper 50s and lower 60s Sunday
with more sunshine returning. 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday,
with the upper flow returning to fairly zonal. Low chances for
showers Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Expect increasing cloudiness later this evening with scattered
to broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL. Winds will be variable
at the KVTN terminal with a shift to the west overnight. Winds
will quickly increase Thursday from the west and northwest with
gusts up to 30 KTS possible late morning. For the KLBF terminal,
expect some wind gusts up to 20 KTS this afternoon from the west
with winds diminishing to under 10 KTS tonight. Light winds will
continue into Thursday morning at the KLBF terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler