813
FXUS63 KLBF 081724
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1124 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold this morning across central and western Nebraska
  with air temperatures zero to 10 below. Wind chills 15 below
  or lower early this morning for some locations generally
  north of Hwy 2.

- Snow showers with wind gusts up to 45 mph move down from the
  north late Wednesday night through Thursday. Highest
  potential for an inch or two of accumulation up near the Pine
  Ridge.

- There may be areas of poor visibility in light snow and
  blowing snow along with some slick spots on roadways into
  Thursday afternoon, but the potential for snow squalls is low.

- Potential for light snow and flurries Friday night through
  Saturday night across north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Skies are generally clear across central and western Nebraska early
this morning, but satellite imagery shows narrow plumes of steam
fog/stratus extending downwind of Lake McConaughy and
Sutherland Reservoir eastward through the North Platte river
valley. While area webcams do not show any significant
restrictions to visibility there may be some patchy fog and
even some light flurries under these plumes through daybreak
before mixing from diurnal heating disrupts the cycle and the
plumes dissipate.

It is also quite cold this morning with readings ranging from 10
above to 10 below. Winds are relatively light though any air
movement will really add a bite to the cold and there may be some
localized wind chill values of 15 below or lower for a brief period
around daybreak before conditions improve this morning with lots of
sunshine. By this afternoon locations west of Hwy 83 will break the
freezing mark with readings into the low/mid 30s, though upper
20s/lower 30s will be more common to the east.

Clouds will be on the increase by this evening as low pressure
moving through the Dakotas pushes a cold front into Nebraska from
the northwest late tonight, then continuing through the rest of
central and western Nebraska Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon. Forcing with the front is good with mid level deformation
and some FGEN though moisture is limited as the front will be
through before any moisture can move up form the south. So expect
snow showers across northwest Nebraska will push southeastward into
central Nebraska by midday, before exiting to the east by late
afternoon/early evening. Probabilistic guidance shows a 50 to
70 percent chance for accumulations of 1 to 2 inches up toward
the Pine Ridge, decreasing to a 60 percent chance for 1/2 to 1
inch along Hwy 20 east to Valentine, diminishing further to a 30
to 40 percent chance for around 1/2 an inch down to about Hwy 2
and maybe a dusting elsewhere. Strong gusty winds will surge in
behind the front with up to a 70 percent chance for gusts at or
above 40mph especially along and north of Interstate 80.
Combined with any falling/fallen snow there may be some areas of
poor visibility in blowing snow. The overall thermodynamic
environment does not appear overly conducive to snow squalls as
near surface lapse rates are not extremely steep and indications
for non-zero surface based instability are sparse, but will
keep a close eye on this to see if parameters start to become
more favorable to snow squalls. It is worth noting that given
our recent cold snap ground temperatures are cold enough to
support some slick spots from any snow that melts on roadways
even with expected highs on Thursday generally peaking in the 30
to 35 degree range. Conditions improve Thursday night as snow
moves east and winds gradually diminish and temperatures fall
into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Guidance continues to show little in the way of any signals for high
impact weather for central and western Nebraska through the early
part of next week. After some brief ridging Friday, progressive
pattern will see energy from the PacNW move through the Rockies
Friday night into Saturday before developing into a broad trof over
the eastern US and trending back toward a split flow regime by the
first part of next week. This may bring another round of snow
showers with passage of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
with some persistent flurries in northwest flow, then trending
back to a dry forecast by Tuesday and into the middle of next
week. The overall pattern will keep temperatures generally below
normal through the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A winter system will move into western Nebraska later tonight
with an accompanying cold front. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail until 10Z at KVTN, when an MVFR ceiling moves in. Light
snow is forecast at KVTN by 12Z, with IFR ceilings by 15Z with
1 1/2SM -SN OVC008. At KLBF, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail until 13Z, when an MVFR ceiling moves in. Light snow is
forecast by 16Z, with 5SM -SN OVC015.

Winds become quite gusty after 12Z, near 32020G35KT by 15Z at
KLBF and KVTN. This will create patchy to areas of blowing snow
late in the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Roberg