378
FXUS63 KLBF 082046
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
  western Nebraska. A few storms could be strong to severe, with
  large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.

- A threat for strong to severe thunderstorms persist into
  Wednesday and Thursday across much of western and north
  central Nebraska. At this time, the primary threats will be
  large hail and damaging winds.

- A cold front ushers in well below average temperatures for
  Friday and Saturday (highs in upper 70s to low 80s).
  Temperatures then warm back to near average by Sunday (highs
  in upper 80s/low 90s) and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Currently, convection has begun to fire across far southeastern
Wyoming, within an upslope regime along/ahead a surface trough.
Additional thunderstorms have initiated along the Black Hills in
southwestern SD. The primary concern for the short term will revolve
around the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening
and tonight. The exact evolution of convection remains low
confidence, with a wide variance in recent high-resolution guidance
solutions. This is most likely tied to how long updrafts can sustain
this evening, with very dry LFC-LCL relative humidity (30-40%) and
limited shear (20-30kts) to suggest issues with dry air entrainment.
This points to updrafts struggling as they move east into western
Nebraska, though the mid-levels do look to slightly moisten with
time. Cannot totally rule out a stronger storm or two this evening,
with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats. Another low
confidence scenario exists in guidance with upscale growth and
renewed convective initiation overnight. This would be in
association with a subtly increasing southerly low level jet. Should
this occur, thunderstorms could linger through much of the overnight
hours, before beginning to exit into eastern Nebraska towards
sunrise.

Yet another threat for severe thunderstorms exist tomorrow afternoon
and evening, with a similar evolution possible. Convection off the
high terrain could grow upscale with time into western and north
central Nebraska, posing a risk for damaging winds and hail. Unlike
today, upper level winds will be slightly stronger, and lead to
better deep layer shear. This could promote better updraft
organization and longevity tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90s across portions of
western Nebraska tomorrow, and will lead to deep inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles and a threat for damaging winds in any
sustained thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A cold front is then expected to slowly push across the area
Thursday afternoon, providing a focus for scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development, especially along and east of HWY 61. A
shortwave trough will cross the Rockies late Thursday afternoon,
increasing mid-level flow. This should lead to the stronger deep
layer shear than in previous days, and lead to a greater threat for
strong to severe storms. Hodographs point towards at least some
threat for a mix of multicells and supercells, which could grow
upscale with time. Large hail and damaging winds will again be the
primary threat, though will have to at least monitor a threat for a
tornado or two. Any tornado threat will be tied to any sustained
supercells, especially towards late evening as east-southeasterly
low level flow begins to strengthen.

The cold front clears the area by Friday morning, and ushers in
below average temperatures (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s) for
Friday and Saturday. This cooldown looks to be short lived however,
as southerly flow returns by Sunday and brings a return of highs in
the upper 80s to 90s. Zonal flow returns aloft into midweek, with
guidance hinting at a few shortwaves traversing the northern Plains.
This would suggest a return of more active weather, and at least
some threat for thunderstorms across western and north central
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow
afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Widely
isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening and tonight,
though confidence remains too low for inclusion at either KLBF
or KVTN.

Winds remain southerly today and tonight, at around 5 to 10
kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown