789
FXUS63 KLBF 061124
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain near to above average (60s to 70s)
  through much of the week, along with dry conditions. The
  exception to this is Tuesday and Wednesday, where chances
  (20-30%) of light rain exist near and north of Highway 2.

- Some increase in fire weather concerns is expected into
  midweek, amid warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Benign weather prevails again today across the area, with amplifying
upper level ridging over the western CONUS the dominant feature
aloft. Upstream, an upper shortwave will drop southward into the
Upper Midwest by this evening, with an associated surface low
pushing across the Great Lakes tonight. This drags a surface trough
through the area this afternoon, with west-northwesterly flow
developing in its wake. Broad downslope warm advection will boost
highs as much as 10 to 15 degrees area wide, into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Enough dry air remains in place to push humidity values
into the teens this afternoon, though light winds will largely
temper any fire weather concerns today.

By tonight, the aforementioned surface low will continue to
trek eastward across the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front
pushing into north central Nebraska near Midnight. Stout
surface high pressure will spill southward out of Manitoba in
the wake of this front, leading to surface pressure rises on the
order of 2mb/hr with frontal passage. This should be enough to
promote a period of gusty north winds tonight immediately behind
the frontal boundary, around 20 to 30 miles per hour for areas
generally east of HWY 83. The cold front will then back westward
into the Sandhills, but only nearing the HWY 83 corridor.
Unfortunately, this lends to a rather low confidence high
temperature forecast for tomorrow afternoon. On the cool side of
the boundary across north central Nebraska, highs will struggle
to climb out of the 40s. Further southwest, for areas west of
HWY 61, confidence is higher in the surface front remaining off
to the northeast. Here highs look to climb into the low to
middle 60s. It is between these areas (near HWY 83) where the
positioning of the backdoor cool front will be toughest to pin
down for now. In fact, this evening`s guidance suite paints
25-75th percentile temperature spreads on the order of 10 to 15F
along HWY 83 tomorrow, lending very little confidence in
current forecasted highs. Adjustments will likely be needed as
the exact placement of the surface boundary becomes more clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Upper ridging will continue to dominate the synoptic regime as we
head into next week, before beginning to breakdown late Tuesday
afternoon. This is in response to an upper shortwave ejecting
eastward across the International Border, reaching North Dakota by
Wednesday morning. A more subtle shortwave will eject east across
the Rockies by Tuesday evening, with an associated surface low
progged to eject into the Sandhills. It is with this surface low
that could lead to widely scattered showers Tuesday evening into
Wednesday north of HWY 2. Though confidence in location of any
precipitation remains very low for now, any accumulations look to
remain light (generally <0.1").

Temperatures briefly return to average (lower 60s) in the wake of
this system on Thursday, before upper ridging again begins to
amplify across the western CONUS late week. This looks to again
boost highs well above average and lead to persistent dry
conditions. Will have to monitor for increasing fire weather
concerns late week with this in mind, though recent rainfall could
lead to green up and temper any threat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Expect mostly clear skies across the area over the next 24
hours. A few to scattered high clouds with ceilings around
25000 FT AGL will be possible over northern Nebraska over the
next 24 hours. A frontal boundary will push into northern
Nebraska late tonight into early Monday morning. This may bring
a threat for MVFR ceilings to portions of north central
Nebraska. ATTM, the main threat for this cloudiness should stay
east of the KVTN terminal through the end of the TAF period and
may possibly impact KVTN after 12z Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler