789
FXUS63 KLBF 162315
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible
  across north central into central Nebraska into early this
  evening with High Wind Warning in effect until 8pm CDT.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night lasting
  through Tuesday with an increasing risk of severe storms
  especially on Sunday afternoon/Sunday night where there is a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 5).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

An upper level low and surface low was currently centered over
central Minnesota. A tight H7 gradient will continue to bring
strong northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 50
to 60 mph through late afternoon, diminishing through sunset.
Light rain showers over portions of north central and central
Nebraska will come to an end by late this afternoon. Dry
conditions tonight, with clearing skies from west to east
overnight. A weak high pressure ridge will settle over the area
tonight, with winds becoming light and variable across the west.
Lows will be coldest across the northwest Sandhills in the mid
30s, where patchy frost is expected. Upper 30s to near 40 across
the remainder of the area.

Saturday, will see a weak transitory upper ridge cross the area.
Winds will be light, becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph across
southwestern areas. Warmer, with highs mid 70s southwest, to the
mid and upper 60s north central. An upper trough will move into
the western U.S. Will see scattered showers and storms develop
in the afternoon to our west across southeast Wyoming into the
western Panhandle and northern Colorado. This activity should
remain just to our west through late afternoon.

Saturday night, the upper trough will deepen across the Pacific
Northwest into the Four Corners Region. Southwesterly flow
aloft will increase along with an increase in atmospheric
moisture. Increasing POPs during the evening across the western
Sandhills, and further east to near Highway 183 overnight.
Coverage should be isolated to scattered, with any rainfall
light and spotty at a trace to a tenth of an inch, in agreement
with the latest 12z CAMs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Active weather Sunday lasting through next Tuesday as a large
upper trough and several rounds of disturbances impact the
region. The severe potential increases late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. A Slight Risk for severe storms is forecast
for areas near and south of Highway 2 and 91.

A shortwave trough will lift from the southern Rockies into the
central Plains late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A
surface low will deepen from southeast Colorado into west
central Kansas. This will develop a warm front potentially as
far north as Benkelman NE through Salina KS. Uncertainty remains
as to how far north the warm front sets up, as the NAM has the
warm front about 100 miles further south. While surface based
instability may be limited, elevated instability will exist.
Strong forcing will be supportive for elevated thunderstorms
across the forecast area Sunday evening and overnight. 70 to 90+
POPs forecast. NBM probabilities of a half inch rainfall or
greater is 60 to 80 percent from west central to across much of
north central Nebraska. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for
the most up to date information including timing details,
updated threats, and locations of greatest impact.

On Monday, a closed low is forecast to extend over the region
from Utah into southwest South Dakota. POPs are likely to
categorical across north central Nebraska, to chance POPs
southwest. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible with the
showers. Showers and a few thunderstorms still likely Monday
night into Tuesday as the upper low slowly moves east across the
Central Plains.

Weak upper level ridging returns Wednesday with dry conditions
for most locations through next Thursday. Low chances for
showers and storms returns Thursday night into next Friday.

Temperatures begin to drop Sunday through Tuesday as plenty of
clouds and precipitation are expected. Expect highs to struggle
to only rise into the 50s on Tuesday. Temperatures begin to
rise once again to near normal in the 70s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Low stratus with MVFR CIGs will slowly exit north central
Nebraska tonight, with VFR expected to prevail for all area
terminals tomorrow. Strong northwest winds persist through
sunset across the area, before gradually weakening overnight.
Winds shift to the east-southeast tomorrow afternoon, at around
10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ005>010-025>029-038-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown