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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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772 FXUS63 KLBF 301131 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 631 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather this evening across portions of western Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms may be capable of producing severe wind gusts and produce large hail. - A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather returns on Monday for most of western and north central Nebraska. All severe threats are in play, to include large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes. - Precipitation chances remain through late week, with another chance of strong thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Upper air analysis and satellite imagery place a trough over the Great Lakes, with a ridge over the Dakotas, and another trough off the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system is located over eastern Nebraska. A stationary front tracks from Kansas to the Texas Panhandle and along the front range of the Rocky Mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A low pressure system is expected to deepen over Wyoming this afternoon and track to the northeast. As the low interacts with the front, a warm front will begin to slowly tack across the state of Nebraska. Early this morning, a low level jet will provide southerly flow bringing in a plume of Gulf moisture. The upper level dynamics provide sufficient deep layer shear for organized convection, with the main concern being the strength of the cap. With the ingredients in place, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of western Nebraska in a Marginal Risk for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be for damaging wind gusts and potential for large hail with more organized convection. As of now, the main severe threat is further north, mainly over Montana and North Dakota, however, stronger cells cannot be ruled out along the warm front with ample low level moisture. The main concern remains the strength of the cap and more stable air over western Nebraska. In fact, overnight CAM guidance remains quite bullish on the strength of the low level inversions, to the tune of nearly 400 J/kg mixed layer CIN prior to convective initiation. The severe weather set up on Monday appears more favorable. Although an inversion is expected to remain, the cap looks less impressive on Monday and more supportive of convective initiation. The low level jet will continue to provide a source of Gulf moisture for storms on Monday, and the slow moving warm front will provide a focus for convective initiation on Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings show fairly deep layer shear which will be supportive of supercells. Given the environment, all severe weather hazards seem to be in play Monday afternoon, including damaging winds, large hail and potentially a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has most of western and north central in a Slight Risk of severe weather for Monday. More concerning, is the risk of significant hail, greater than 2 inches in diameter, over portions of southwest, central, and south central Nebraska. The conditions on Monday will need to be closely monitored, as timing and location are honed in on. Regardless, Monday appears to be a day to stay weather aware and a day to have multiple ways to get updates and warnings throughout the day. In addition to the thunderstorm risk, Monday will be the hottest day of the forecast period, particularly over southwest Nebraska. High temperatures across southwest Nebraska will approach the upper 90s, and may even break 100 degrees. The latest forecast sees a slight cooling trend, with expected temps in the mid to upper 90s. However, there still is a potential for the high to break 100 for a short period of time Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The upper level trough remains to the west on Tuesday before transitioning into a progressive upper level pattern. This will keep chances of precipitation in the forecast through the end of the week. By the weekend, a ridge should attempt to build in behind an exiting trough, bringing a potential for another dry period. However, there is some disagreement on the timing of the ridging setting in. Cluster analysis highlights this bit of disparity, however, as the week progresses, guidance should get a better handle on the speed of the upper level systems. On the note of near daily precipitation chances, Wednesday may be the next day to keep an eye on for stronger thunderstorms. Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours brings the best chances for widespread precipitation during the course of the week, with generally seasonable temperatures. Both the GFS and the European suggest a forming low pressure system over the Rockies tracking through Nebraska, with disagreement on timing and track. The GFS in particular is suggesting areas of modest CAPE and bulk shear supportive of more organized convection, however the exact severe potential is unknown at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon, before lower clouds move in across southwest Nebraska, including KLBF by late evening bringing MVFR and potential lower conditions.Lower cigs will then move into the northern Sandhills and north central Nebraska, including KVTN terminal after midnight. A slight chance of showers this afternoon across the northern Sandhills, with additional thunderstorm chances across western Nebraska this evening. Winds will be gusty in the morning and afternoon out of the southeast around 10 to 15kts and gust of 25 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Richie SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Gomez