573
FXUS63 KLBF 052359
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
  afternoon and evening, some of which may be severe

- Wednesday afternoon and evening there is a chance for isolated
  thunderstorms

- Temperatures warm into the upper 90s to low 100s, Wednesday
  through Friday with heat indices approaching the 90s

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm
development late afternoon and evening. Uncertainty remains on if
thunderstorms will develop as forcing is weak. There are two areas
of concern being monitored today for thunderstorm development. One
area is across western Nebraska where a dry line is advancing
eastward, this could provide enough forcing for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. The timeframe for development will be late
afternoon and evening as temperatures peak with highs reaching the
upper 80s to 90s should be sufficient enough to erode the cap
and have an isolated thunderstorm or two across but confidence
is low.

The second area will be storms that develop in central SD and move
into the area later this evening as the LLJ kicks in. There is some
uncertainty if they will move into the area and how far south they
move. The most likely scenario will be storms moving along the NE/SD
and moving southeast into north central/north eastern Nebraska.

Should storms develop there is a sufficient environment with
Southeasterly winds advecting moisture into the area with dew points
in the upper 60s. 0-6 km shear values increasing late
afternoon/evening to around 30 to 40 kts and CAPE values over 3500
J/kg. There will also be a strong LLJ around 40 to 45 kts this
evening. Should thunderstorms develop they will potentially become
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main
concern. The one caveat for storms sustaining themselves would be
dry air aloft despite the abundant LL moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For Wednesday, as an upper level ridge moves in temperatures will
warm into the upper 90s across southwest Nebraska. Heat indices will
be in the upper 90s, however the period of highest indices will be
brief and localized only around an hour or two so at this time
headlines were not needed for Wednesday. There will also be a
concern for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, however
there is some uncertainty as forcing is weak.

Thursday and Friday temperatures will be much warmer with highs
in the upper 90s to low 100s with confidence increasing in heat
indices above 100, will continue to monitor the need for
potential for heat headlines on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain breezy at KVTN out of the south around 15 kts with gust
up to 25 kts. There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms
tonight across northern Nebraska with the greatest potential
near the NE/SD in north central Nebraska. Winds will be lighter
from the southeast tonight and tomorrow around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Roberg