219
FXUS63 KLBF 052324
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues for the next 7 days.

- A gradual warning trend will occur Sunday through Friday
  followed by a strong Pacific cold front and cooler weather
  Saturday.

- Very dry air remain across western and north central Nebraska
  until the cold front arrives next Saturday. Humidity will fall
  to 15 to 20 percent and elevated fire weather conditions will
  continue across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

1025mb Pacific high pressure should be centered across the Sandhills
and swrn Nebraska by 12z Sunday morning. The guidance blend
continues to advertise lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s in this
area. Bias correction raises lows a couple of degrees and this is
the official forecast.

The guidance blend and the short term model blend were close
predicting highs in the upper 60s and 70s Sunday. Modest cold air
advection across ncntl Nebraska Sunday holds highs in the upper 60s
to around 70 while modest warm advection across wrn Nebraska allows
for highs in the mid 70s.

South winds and return flow around sfc high pressure centered across
ern Nebraska Sunday night should maintain warm air advection across
wrn/ncntl Nebraska but the models are very modest with this feature.
The cooler guidance blend was selected for this reason and lows in
the 30s to lower 40s are in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

There is little change in the extended forecast philosophy today.
The strong storm across Manitoba this afternoon will continue
moving east and form a closed upper level low across James Bay
Monday. The upper low will move slowly east through the Canadian
Maritime region next week and upstream ridging will develop
across the cntl Plains. By Thursday, a long wave trof will
approach the Pacific Northwest and both the ridging and approach
of the trof will support warm air advection across Nebraska
Monday through Friday. H850 temperatures will warm into the
lower to mid 20s centigrade by Friday. Highs in the 80s are in
place Tuesday and Wednesday with a few readings around 90
Thursday and Friday.

A strong Pacific cold front should move into Nebraska next Saturday
spreading cooler air into the region. The ECM is a bit slower with
the timing of the front; the GFS is faster, but the concept is the
same. The extended forecast continues dry with little if any chance
of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central
Nebraska through tomorrow evening. The gusty winds behind the cold
front are in the process of diminishing, and should be calmed this
evening and overnight. Generally light winds are expected today and
tomorrow, with a possible wind shift late tomorrow afternoon into
the evening, near the end of the effective TAF period. Timing of the
shift will most likely be caught in the following TAFs. Otherwise,
skies may be smoky from wildfires across Wyoming and the western
United States, however, no impacts to visibility are expected at
this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Areas of smoke are in the forecast tonight through Sunday
night. Visible satellite and the morning runs of the vertically
integrated and near sfc smoke products from the RAP and HRRR
models show smoke from fires across WY and the wrn U.S. damming
up against the cntl high Plains tonight. The reason for this is
Pacific high pressure building through Nebraska tonight will
trap the smoke to the west. The high pressure will move slowly
east toward Iowa Sunday and Sunday night. The smoke will follow
the track of the high pressure system according to the models.

No strong weather systems which would present an obvious signal for
critical fire weather conditions are indicated Sunday through next
Saturday. Monday and Friday will be days to watch. Southwest winds
may gust to 25 mph or stronger across ncntl Nebraska Monday and
across much of western and north central Nebraska Friday. A strong
cold front will sweep through the region Saturday cooling
temperatures and increasing humidity.

Very dry air remain across western and north central Nebraska until
the cold front arrives next Saturday. Humidity will fall to 15 to 20
percent and elevated fire weather conditions will continue across
the region until Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...CDC