247
FXUS63 KLBF 121128
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday
  afternoon across a good portion of west central into north
  central Nebraska, especially east of highway 61.

- A strong storm system will cross the central plains Friday
  into Saturday. Strong winds appear likely for all of western
  and north central Nebraska. Winter impacts remain uncertain
  with tonight`s deterministic model runs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Over the next 36 hours, unseasonably warm temperatures and
critical fire weather conditions will be the main forecast
concerns. Today will feature light winds, a ridge aloft, and
highs that will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal. For highs
this afternoon, blended the inherited forecast with the MAV
guidance. The MET guidance seemed too cool over the northeastern
forecast area with a high of 57 for KONL and adjusted this
toward the warmer MAV guidance. Ridging aloft will build east
Thursday with a trough moving onshore over the western CONUS.
This will trigger a lee side trough Thursday with increasing
southerly winds across the forecast area. High temperatures
Thursday will reach well into the mid to upper 70s with
afternoon RH reaching 15 to 20 percent across the area. Bufkit
soundings indicate decent mixing up to h700 with gust potential
above 25 MPH Thursday afternoon. This is for almost the entire
forecast area and went ahead and added zones 204 and 208 to the
fire weather watch. There is some uncertainty, as to wind gusts
in the far west Thursday afternoon which will be tied to the
location of the surface trough. In light of this, the latest
FWDY2 from SPC does have the eastern panhandle in elevated fire
weather threat with a critical threat just east of the
panhandle. That being said, decided to add zone 204 as the
eastern half of that zone could see critical fire weather conds
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The upper level trough, will quickly transition east across the
SW CONUS Thursday night into early Friday. This will induce
rapid surface cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado Thursday night.
Southerly winds will increase overnight leading to mild
temperatures across the area. Lows Friday morning will range
from the middle 30s in the west, to the upper 40s in the east.
The surface low will deepen further, crossing Kansas on Friday.
The latest EURO, Canadian, and GFS ensembles deepen this low to
around 975 MB Friday afternoon, lifting this feature into
western Iowa Friday evening. On the back side of the low very
strong northerly winds will develop from west to across the
forecast area Friday afternoon into Friday night. The latest GFS
and NAM bufkit soundings indicate gust potential of 50 to 60
MPH Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. For the wind
forecast, blended the NBM with the 75th percentile. This gave a
3 to 5 KT boost in sustained winds and resulted in wind gusts of
50 to 60 MPH Friday night into Saturday morning. This trended
wind speeds more toward high wind warning criteria, which will
probably end up being issued over the next 24 to 36 hrs. With
respect to precipitation and precipitation types, the latest EC
and GFS solns do not have much in the way cold air on the back
side of this system and given the quick forward speed of the
system, the snow threat appears to be diminishing somewhat. The
NAM tonight is the coldest of the deterministic solns and
develops a band of deformation snow Saturday morning from
eastern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The 00z run
does accumulate snow in the far northeastern zones Saturday
morning and is the outlier compared to the GFS and EC solns
which are warmer and produce minimal snow over the northeastern
forecast area. Ongoing messaging with this system has been high
forecast confidence in winds and low confidence in P-Types and
snow potential. This messaging will continue given the
uncertainties in snow potential with this system. Winds will
gradually diminish late Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours. Ridging will build back into the central CONUS Sunday
into Monday with above normal temperatures expected. This will
be followed by a cold front Tuesday and an increased threat for
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday next week, some of
that precipitation may end up as accumulating snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through today and into
tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska. There
will be some high cloudiness streaming eastward across the area,
otherwise skies will be clear. Winds will be light at 10 kts or
less through tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The Fire Weather Watch has been expanded Thursday to include all of
western and north central Nebraska. A surface trough will develop
east of the Rockies across the high plains. Ahead of this trough,
south winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph are expected east
of Highway 83. West of Highway 83, winds will be south to southwest
at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Very low humidity
values are expected area wide, with a few locations dropping below
15%. Generally speaking the majority of the area will see lowest
humidity readings in the 15 to 20% range Thursday afternoon.

Only moderate humidity recovery is expected Thursday night, with
maximum humidity in the 55 to 75% range (highest across north
central Nebraska). Winds will remain gusty from the south to
southeast during the evening to the east of Highway 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor