453
FXUS63 KLBF 030846
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions in the low 90s today.

- Showers and thunderstorms likely Friday into Friday evening.
  Although isolated hail and strong winds are possible, locally
  heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns for
  Independence Day celebrations.

- Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

An upper ridge will remain centered over the Texas Gulf Coast with
an upper ridge in place over the the Northern and Central Plains
today. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Desert Southwest will
advance into the Four Corners region late day. With surface low
pressure deepening across eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, the
surface pressure gradient and H7 gradient will tighten up
today. this will bring breezy conditions with southerly winds at
15 to 25 mph. Highs today will be very similar to yesterday
from 90 to 95 degrees.

Deterministic models and the latest CAMs keep western Nebraska dry
Thursday evening, with a slight chance across the southeast
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska after midnight.

The latest deterministic and CAMs continues to point toward a higher
probability of scattered to even numerous thunderstorm development
Friday into Friday evening as an upper trough crosses the region.
PWATs are forecast to increase to 1.5 to over 1.75 inches. Soundings
shows a tall skinny CAPE supportive of heavy rainfall potential. The
00Z HREF 75th percentile 6-hr precipitation amounts from 0.5 inch to
around 1.25 inches between highway 83 and 183 Friday afternoon. SPC
expanded a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) southward to include
areas east of Valentine through North Platte. This is the
result of increasing shear along and east of the advancing
surface trough during the afternoon and evening. Convection
appears to quickly develop by early afternoon along this
southwest to northeast oriented trough. Although frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall are most likely with the
heavier storms, isolated strong wind gusts and hail up to one
inch diameter are also possible. WPC also is forecasting a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas east of an
Imperial through North Platte and O`Neill line.

Timing of showers and storms favor the daytime Friday, lasting
in the evening, especially east of an Ainsworth through North
Platte line, which may unfortunately impact holiday celebrations.
Stay tuned to later forecasts as models come into better
agreement on storm coverage and impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

There should be a break in thunderstorms Saturday with dry
conditions expected in the wake of the system Friday night. Highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Storm chances return Saturday night with
zonal flow aloft.

An upper ridge over the Four Corners region on Sunday will
strengthen and slowly expand northward through Wednesday. The
upper flow will remain fairly zonal on Sunday, but become
northwesterly Monday through Wednesday. This will continue to
bring daily chances for thunderstorms, especially during the
late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Highs in the mid 80s
Sunday and Monday warm into the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday with humid conditions each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Skies will remain mostly clear over the next 24 hours with a few
high clouds possible around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will be gusty on
Thursday during the afternoon into the early evening hours with
gusts approaching 20 to 25 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler