586
FXUS63 KLBF 272154
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
454 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
  lead to near-critical to briefly critical conditions again
  Friday afternoon for much of western Nebraska.

- Scattered thunderstorms are likely (40-60%) late Friday for portions
  of central Nebraska. A few storms could be briefly severe
  with isolated hail up to 1" and gusty winds the main concerns.

- A couple quick hitting disturbances will allow precipitation chances
  to linger through much of the weekend. As temperatures fall
  Saturday, a changeover to rain/snow if not all snow will be
  possible with accumulations possible (up to 70% probabilities
  of seeing measureable snow across the Sandhills).

- Continued active weather appears probable next week as
  troughing remains entrenched over the western CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Warm conditions continue through the remainder of the day and into
the overnight hours tonight. As of 2030z, a warm front bisected
western Nebraska and was currently sitting near a CDR to GRI.
Meanwhile, a surface trough extended south from near TIF through LBF
and MCK. Aloft, upper ridging remains in place over the central
CONUS. A deeper trough was beginning to move onshore the Pacific
Northwest and will play a larger role in the weekend`s weather
across the local area.

Tonight...the beginning stages of mid-level height falls due to the
approach of multiple disturbances will occur tonight into early
Friday. A few high based showers have developed off the Cheyenne
Ridge in the southern Nebraska Panhandle. This activity is occurring
within an area of moderately steep lapse rates, a precursor to
Friday`s environment. Forecast soundings show a deep mixed layer
with cloud bases nearing 12kft AGL. This is supported by KSNY and
KIBM both reporting "Clear" conditions. Measureable precipitation is
not expected out of this activity nor is any lightning but gusty
erratic winds are likely in the immediate vicinity of any of this
activity. Any radar returns should diminish with loss of daytime
heating this evening. As height falls concentrate across the
northern Rockies tonight, lee cyclogenesis will ramp up as a surface
low takes shape over western South Dakota. This will shift a dryline
further east into the Sandhills with steady southerly flow helping
reinforce already in place dew points ranging from the middle to
upper 40s. This should allow for a decent spread in overnight lows
west to east where upper 30s are possible in sheltered areas west of
Highway 83 but low 50s could hang on for areas east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Friday/Friday night...our first noteworthy change to sensible
weather with a lot of moving parts to discuss. Aforementioned
surface low will glide west to east early in the day across South
Dakota. This will drive up southwesterly winds ahead of a surface
trough likely to set up near an LBF to ANW line near midday. Further
west, more westerly downsloping winds feeding into the converging
line will promote rapid warm up as h85 temperatures climb to the
99th percentile. Based on this and the ability for westerly winds
within a dry airmass to overachieve, did boost afternoon highs
slightly. This produced middle to upper 80s southeast of a Grant to
Thedford to Spencer line. Elsewhere, highs should range in the 70s
to lower 80s. All these values exceed 20F above normal and even
approach 35F above normal for some of central Nebraska compared to
late March climatology. The current forecast high of 86F at North
Platte would tie the previous record with more information found
below in the Climate section. Because of the dry air invading from
the higher terrain, will be watching for near-critical to briefly
critical fire weather concerns with greatest concern being west of
Highway 83. More details pertaining to that can be found in the Fire
Weather Discussion below. Later in the day, the surface trough will
settle across our far eastern zones. A Pacific Cold front will dive
south out of the northern Plains. When this feature pinches the
surface trough, forcing for ascent will increase enough to produce
scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms. Recent trends have
been to push back initiation of this activity largely due to lack of
more appreciable forcing with slow to improve moisture depth. SPC
has maintained a Marginal Risk in close proximity to the likely
location of the surface boundary/trough interaction and am generally
in good agreement with this given latest deterministic and ensemble
solutions. While the environment doesn`t suggest widespread severe
prospects...a narrow plume of 1000-2000 j/kg MUCAPE coincident with
modest deep layer shear to the tune of 20 knots 0-6km BWD...a few
storms will be capable of isolated hail up to 1" and gusty winds
approaching 50 to 60 mph. Storms should unzip along the surface
front but reside over a stabilizing boundary layer later in the
evening and overnight with west to east movement. While a few
locations could potentially see training storms, overall the threat
for heavy rain remains low with a few locations potentially seeing a
half inch or more of rainfall before activity exits. Elsewhere,
synoptic lift will increase and bring about more widespread rain and
thunderstorms as a secondary surface low takes shape across western
Kansas and tracks east heading into Saturday. Strengthening mid-
level lift will drive more widespread rain across the Sandhills
which could see a mix to snow. Placement and trajectory of the
surface low are somewhat concerning with respect to wintry impacts
across the area and close attention will need paid to this with
subsequent forecasts.

Saturday and Sunday...as mentioned before, the passing surface low
across Kansas and strengthening CAA will drive a transition to
rain/snow mix if not all snow by early Saturday. While temperatures
during the day will likely exceed the freezing mark, our northern
zones may remain marginal enough to allow at least a snow mix to
linger through good portions of the day. A considerable amount of
the uncertainty resides within how long snow accumulations, should
any occur, can linger before eroding away within the marginal
temperatures. Latest NBM probabilities pain increased intensities
favoring our northern zones and recent GFS/ECMWF deterministic
solutions advertise strong forcing within backside deformation
allowing for potential winter impacts including accumulating snow.
For now, the going forecast calls for around 1" or less of
accumulating snow anywhere in the area. That said, this forecast
currently undercuts some of the more recent guidance and later
forecasts may see considerable increases in forecast snowfall. The
main concerns would be moderate to heavy snow that could lead to
slushy accumulations and visibility issues affecting travel. Stay
tuned. Temperatures safely fall below freezing and this will likely
be aided by some amount of snow on the ground. Lows will fall into
the 20s. Warmer temperatures are like on Sunday and with the lack of
greater upper-level dynamics, it`s likely that precipitation will
favor mostly rain on Sunday with only a few local areas seeing a mix
of snow. Recent guidance suggests the bulk of the daytime remaining
on the drier side and later forecasts will likely see PoPs cleaned
up. Most PoPs are out of the area by daybreak Monday with lows
falling into the upper teens to lower 20s.

Monday and beyond...a fairly active pattern will likely continue
into next week. Trends of NWP guidance have been to come into better
agreement regarding evolution of deep troughing over the western
CONUS. Both EPS/GEFS now suggest a slow track east across the
Rockies sometime around the middle of the week. Though magnitude of
the system varies considerably, the window of potential impacts
appears to be narrowing. Another deep low appears likely to impact
at least portions of the region. While confidence remains limited on
how the system pans out, it`s worth mentioning that some solutions
depict a high impact event. At this range, it`s not uncommon to see
these occur with NWP guidance but it bears watching through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Friday morning. Winds will be light
through tonight. Gusty winds from the west to southwest will
develop Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Fire weather concerns will increase again Friday. A rather difficult
forecast for Friday as a surface trough will bisect the area from
southwest to northeast. There will be a surge of westerly winds to
the west of this feature, mainly west of Highway 83 and particularly
the western Sandhills and the Panhandle. Near-critical to
perhaps briefly critical fire weather conditions could occur
Friday afternoon, but confidence on widespread long lasting
critical conditions is not high, and will forgo any fire
headlines at this time. Friday evening a cold front will surge
southward through the area with humidity values rising and
precipitation chances increasing. This weekend fire weather
concerns will be low, with at least scattered areas of rain and
snow, higher humidity and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

    Friday Forecast Highs / Record High (year of occurence)
North Platte           86 / 86 (1986)
Valentine              78 / 84 (1895)
Broken Bow             87 / 86 (1986)
Imperial               86 / 88 (1895)

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor
CLIMATE...NMJ