458
FXUS63 KLBF 101117
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
517 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Precipitation in the form of rain and snow returns on Friday night
  and into the weekend. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is possible
  across portions of the Pine Ridge region.

* Dry conditions as well as a warming trend with highs returning
  to the 40s starts on Sunday night lasting through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Upper level ridging will persist through today keeping conditions
dry with mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs will rise to near or
slightly above freezing due to ample sunshine and weak warm air
advection.

This quieter weather will be short-lived as the next system moves in
on Friday night. A shortwave trough and developing surface low
pressure will push across the northern and central Plains bringing
the next potential for precipitation through the weekend.
Precipitation moves into the Panhandle by Friday evening and pushes
eastward into the Sandhills through Saturday morning. It will then
restrict to the north with locations north of Highway 2 having the
best potential to see precipitation from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Heading into Sunday, terrain influences will keep
some lingering precip across the Pine Ridge.

Precipitation type regarding this system still remains a little
uncertain, however, the latest guidance suggests precipitation to
start off as snow across the Panhandle and Pine Ridge region after
Midnight CT Friday night and remain all snow until after sunrise
when temperatures rise above freezing. Precipitation will then
become either all rain or a rain/snow mix. As temperatures fall
below freezing once again after sunset, any rain/liquid will change
back to all snow. The previously mentioned lingering precip across
the Pine Ridge on Sunday will likely be all snow as higher elevation
combine with surface air temperatures below freezing. Therefore the
greatest potential to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine
Ridge and portions of northern Nebraska (mainly north of US-20). In
these locations, 2 to 4 inches of snow could be possible. The latest
probabilistic guidance shows the potential of seeing over 1 inch
across the Pine Ridge to be near 80 percent and the potential of
seeing over 2 inches across to be near 30 percent. Stay tuned to the
latest forecasts as changes in precipitation type may alter these
snow totals, either up or down. At this time, winter headlines are
not issued, but may be needed (especially across the Pine
Ridge/Sheridan county area) if the current forecast remains on
track.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Precipitation comes to an end Sunday evening as surface high
pressure begins to build into the region on Sunday night. This high
will bring quieter weather to the region through the middle of next
week. There will also be a gradual warming trend as mild warm air
advection brings 850mb temperatures in the 0 to 6 C range. This will
result in surface highs to return into the 40s for most locations by
Wednesday. Looking ahead, the warmer temperatures and dry conditions
will continue through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR conditions expected at TAF sites through the valid period.

Satellite imagery shows a small patch of VFR low clouds moving
across central Nebraska that may drift over the airfields early
this morning so will indicate SCT for sky conditions instead of
SKC. Mid/high clouds increase form the northwest after sunset
though expect any approaching precipitation and sub-VFR
conditions will hold off until after this valid period.

Winds will be light at under 10kt thorugh the period, though
winds aloft will amplify after dark so will include a mention of
low level wind shear this evening thorugh tonight.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...MBS