523
FXUS63 KLBF 010843
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening

*Another chance for severe weather Wednesday

*Cooler temperatures for 4th of July and Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Have kept the warmest high temperatures for today across
the far southern forecast area, just Chase, Hayes and Frontier
counties with a sharp temperatures gradient of cooler temperatures
as you move north. There is a little uncertainty just how far north
the warm front will lift tomorrow afternoon, but looks to remain
just south of interstate 80, thus have kept the warmest temperatures
on the southern forecast area. North of the front temperatures will
be in the 80s to even mid 70s across north central Nebraska.

As for thunderstorms chances today. Lingering morning thunderstorms
will be possible through the early morning hours, then the rest of
the morning and early afternoon is expected to remain dry. Then
expect thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon across western
Nebraska, would expect most of the convection to hold off until
after 3pm with development first across the Panhandle then moving
east through the afternoon and evening.

A SFC Low across the CO/NE/KS border is expected to deepen this
afternoon then move eastward. Southwesterly flow will increase
moisture to the area in the afternoon with dew points increasing to
the upper 60s to low 70s for areas generally east of HWY 61. CAPE
values will be around 2000 to 4000 J/kg in the afternoon and
evening. Shear in the 0 to 6km layer will be around 45 to 50 kts.
Expect severe storms to contain damaging winds and large hail and
even a few tornadoes could be possible. The large hail threat is a
little more uncertain of an environment as temperatures aloft will
be quite warm, around 20 to 30 degrees celsius, leading to lower
confidence in a large hail threat. There is also uncertainty of how
far north the warm front will lift, will have to monitor as the area
along and just north of the the front as this is where the most
favorable environment for tornadic development will exist,
especially with the initial more discrete supercell development, do
expect as storms continue their eastward progression storm mode
will become more linear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A SW trof will move through the area on Tuesday and could
see a few isolated thunderstorms develop, but don`t expect anything
widespread. Focus then turns to Wednesday when a disturbance moves
through the area Wednesday. There is the potential for strong to
severe storms Wednesday evening across the forecast area and will
need to continue to monitor. For those with plans on the 4th of
July, it will be a cool with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees
below normal after a cold front passage. Highs will only reach the
low to mid 70s across the northern Sandhills into north central
Nebraska and further south into southwest Nebraska temperatures will
only be in the low 80s. There will also be slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms during  the day across the northern
Sandhills, but lower confidence in precipitation occurring
after 6pm, thus at this time it is looking dry in the evening
hours. Cooler temperatures will continue on Friday before
temperatures return to near normal highs by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

As a line of showers and thunderstorms moves across western
Nebraska, so will a widespread area of stratus. The stratus will be
the cause of MVFR to IFR ceilings through the afternoon hours. As
showers appear to be weakening, will omit from TAFs for time being,
but may need amend if rain showers hold together. Models have backed
off on the low level jet, so have removed LLWS as well. There will
likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon into the evening, however confidence in location is still
low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie