681
FXUS63 KLBF 032324
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
  mainly the Sandhills though early this evening.

- Monitoring the severe potential later Monday afternoon and
  Monday night. Confidence is low if storms will initiate, but
  would likely be severe if they do.

- Heat builds in mid to late week. Hot temperatures combined
  with humidity could push some areas into heat advisory
  criteria Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon lasting into the evening hours before ending. A weak
surface trough will be anchored from near Ainsworth to Ogallala by
late this afternoon. Overall shear is weak with no real defined wave
to enhance lift for storm development. There is around 2000 J/KG of
surface based CAPE available along the boundary, so the atmosphere is
somewhat buoyant. Low-level convergence along the boundary will have
to serve as the main focus for widely scattered storm development.
As storms attempt to move east-southeastward off the boundary, they
appear they will struggle to survive as the outflow races out well
ahead the main cores. In the early stages of development, a few
instances of hail will be possible in the strongest cores. Then wind
would be a concern as outflow pushes quickly outward.

Monday could end up being a bit more interesting. However, heights
will be rising as upper level high pressure begins to build
northward through the Rockies. This could cap the atmosphere and
prevent convective development all together. Still, a few of the CAM
members insist that isolated supercell development will occur across
portions of northwest Nebraska in a moist, upslope environment. If a
storm materializes, it would likely be severe, and a right-turning
supercell. The environment would support all severe hazards if a
storm manages to develop. The NAM model brings an all out MCS
southeast through the area Monday night. With such strong shear and
strong southerly low-level jet, wouldn`t be surprised. It actually
been advertising this for several runs and have expanded some low
pops through Monday night to account for this possibility.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Attention turns to the heat and less of a storm threat as we head
into the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. Ridging aloft will
continue to expand north and eastward across the central plains.
Stronger winds aloft and any embedded disturbances look to shift
more into the northern plains. This shifts the better focus for
thunderstorm activity northward. Cannot rule out a stray storm or
two with the expected heat and humidity, but chances don`t look
favorable due to rising heights and warming temperatures aloft.

The bigger story will be the heat gradually building eastward across
the area through the week. In fact, conditions look to be near
heat advisory criteria Thursday into Friday as the heat combines
with humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of western and
north central Nebraska this evening, which may introduce the
potential for gusty, erratic winds and brief MVFR ceilings. For the
most part, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the effective TAF
period, however, some dense stratus is expected across portions of
southwest Nebraska overnight, bringing IFR ceilings. Kept these
ceilings in the KLBF TAF, and will be monitoring closely overnight.
Otherwise, winds remain mostly light and variable, picking up to
around 10 knots by mid morning out of the south and southeast.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie