979
FXUS63 KLBF 011747
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Critical fire weather concerns are expected across the
   Panhandle and Sandhills this afternoon, with warm, dry, and
   windy conditions expected.

-  Elevated to near-critical fire concerns are expected nearly
   each day late week and into the weekend, with dry, warm, and
   breezy (at times) conditions persisting.

-  Persistent zonal flow aloft will lead to a series of dry
   frontal passages, as well as near to well above average high
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical
fire weather conditions. Additional details regarding the fire
weather threat can be found in the fire weather section included
below.

For today, strong surface high pressure, currently centered over
northwest Nebraska, will slide southeast into central Nebraska by
early this afternoon, with a quick return to southerly flow in its
wake. As broad lee cyclogenesis begins across the northern Rockies
tomorrow afternoon, a constricting surface pressure gradient and
ample diurnal mixing will aid in increasing southerly wind speeds
across western Nebraska. Gusts of 25 to 30 miles per hour are
anticipated this afternoon primarily west of Highway 83, where the
greatest surface pressure gradient magnitude will be located.
This will unfortunately coincide yet again with critical
relative humidity, and lead to a period of Red Flag conditions
this afternoon. Minimum humidity values fall to around 15%
across much of the area, though the greatest overlap of gusty
winds and the low humidity will be across the western Sandhills
and the Panhandle. As with many of the previous few nights, very
poor humidity recovery of 40-60% is expected across the area,
even as lows fall into the 40s.

A much warmer day awaits us Wednesday, as a dry frontal passage
occurs through the area during the afternoon. As deep diurnal mixing
is achieved behind the front into the afternoon hours Wednesday,
highs should soar into the upper 80s to low 90s. ECMWF extreme
forecast index guidance even paints SOT >0 for high temperatures
tomorrow afternoon, suggesting highs approaching record territory.
In fact, North Platte`s forecasted high of 90 is within a couple
degrees (92F on 10/2/1938) of the daily record high. This, combined
with the scouring of low level moisture, will again push relative
humidity values into the low teens (to even as low as 10%). Forecast
soundings show an exceptionally dry column, with PWAT values falling
to around 0.25" and T/Td spreads of some 55-65 degrees. With this
degree of dry air in place, will have to very closely monitor for
the potential for Red Flag conditions across the area. As of now,
wind gusts only look to briefly flirt with the 25 mile per hour
threshold, though trends will need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The long term period looks to continue to be devoid of any
appreciable precipitation chances, as broad zonal flow aloft
persists across the Plains. This leaves the area well south of
the northern stream, with upper lows passing well into Canada.
The southern stream remains suppressed (and largely weak) into
the far southern US/Gulf Coast region. The consequence of this
locally is a series of dry frontal passages, leading to a period
of near to well above average temperatures. With at multitude
of these frontal boundaries expected to reach the Gulf Coast and
limit northward moist advection, this will keep deeper moisture
locked in place across the Deep South. Unfortunately, the lack
of moisture and precipitation will exacerbate ongoing drought
and fire weather conditions across western and north central
Nebraska, with daily bouts of near-critical to critical fire
weather concerns. It appears little in the way of drought/fire
weather relief is on the way, even looking beyond the end of the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Winds will continue to increase through the afternoon out of the
south to southwest. Sustained winds will be around 5 to 10 kts,
with gust of 20 kts or stronger, with the stronger winds across
the northern Sandhills, including KVTN terminal. Winds will
remain breezy through the overnight, before diminishing in the
early morning hours. Winds then switch by mid morning to the
west northwest around 10 kts. VFR conditions will prevail over
the next 24 hours with just a few high clouds across the
forecast area throughout the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop this
afternoon across the Panhandle and Sandhills due to an overlap of
warm, dry, and breezy conditions. Near-critical to critical fire
concerns are expected again Wednesday as well.

For today: Winds will switch to the south this morning across
western Nebraska, with gusts increasing to 25-30 mph this afternoon
generally west of HWY 83. These southerly winds will combine with
temperatures in the 70s and relative humidity values falling to
around 15 percent. A period of critical fire weather conditions is
expected this afternoon, prior to winds weakening near sunset.
Exceptionally poor humidity recovery of 40-60% is expected overnight
into Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday: A frontal boundary will push through the area early
Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures soaring into the upper 80s to
low 90s in its wake. This will lead to a wind shift from southwest
to north, along with humidity values falling to near 10-15% across
all of western and north central Nebraska. North wind gusts
approaching 20-25 mph are expected across the Sandhills during the
afternoon, and may lead to locally critical fire weather conditions.
Future Red Flag headlines may be needed for tomorrow, and trends
will continue to be monitored closely.

Late week/weekend: Another cool front will bring milder weather
Thursday and Friday, along with some bouts of gustier winds (but
generally higher humidity). The next period of greater concern comes
Saturday as temperatures shoot back up to around 90, humidity values
drop below 15%, and gusty southerly winds switch to northerly
midday. Trends will be monitored for potential red flag conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...Brown