


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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145 FXUS63 KLBF 011733 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is expected this evening across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. - The next significant chances for thunderstorms arrives on Friday and Friday evening, although the severe potential is uncertain at this time. - Daily chances for thunderstorms continues through the weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 An embedded shortwave trough was topping an upper ridge over western Wyoming and southern Montana early this morning. This will reach the Black Hills and southeastern Wyoming by mid afternoon as isolated thunderstorms begin to develop. A few of the CAMs initiate storm develop further east across the northwest Sandhills after 21Z, with upscale growth southeastward into the southeast Panhandle, west central and southwest Nebraska. Others bring isolated convection in from the west with a slower timing and less coverage of storms into the evening. As a result limited POPs to 20 to 30 percent across the western half of the forecast area this evening. Any storms which develop will be capable of becoming strong to severe, given steep low and mid level lapser rates, MLCAPEs 1500-2500 J/kg and 35kt of effective bulk shear. Directional vertical shear from southerly up to 700mb, to westerly at 600mb and higher support a somewhat curved and elongated hodograph. A developing low-level jet should help sustain storms after sunset. Other storms may develop over central and southeast South Dakota overnight and reach into the northeastern zones. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to around 90 across the west, with southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. Lows tonight from the low to mid 60s. Wednesday, the upper ridge axis will extend over the region with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Morning showers and storms may be ongoing from southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska, and could affect far northeastern zones in the morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Daily chances for thunderstorms return Thursday night lasting through the weekend into early next week. The latest guidance suggests a greater probability of scattered thunderstorm development on Friday and Friday night as an upper trough and Pacific cold front crosses the region. While the severe potential is uncertain, instability and forcing may lead to stronger and an increased probability for severe storms. Large hail, frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy rainfall are all so possible. Coverage will likely be scattered at most, so some locations may not see storms. Timing of storms favor the late afternoon and into the evening which may unfortunately impact holiday celebrations. Stay tuned to later forecasts as models come into better agreement on storm coverage and impacts. Storm chances will continue through the weekend into early next week. The upper flow will remain fairly zonal Saturday through Monday, with highs 85 to 90 and humid conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Increasing clouds and lowering ceilings are expected through the afternoon in advance of the next weather system. Showers and thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon and overspread the region through the evening. Some storms have the potential to become strong to severe with very strong and erratic winds as well as some hail. Visibility restrictions should also be expected in any shower or thunderstorm. Storms will come to an end by early Wednesday morning with a gradual return to VFR conditions by sunrise. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Kulik