031
FXUS63 KLBF 181137
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Possible severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Continued rather hot though Thursday then temperatures
  cooling by this weekend.

- A drier period is expected Tuesday through Thursday with
  chances for rainfall increasing again Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe, will be the main
concern later this afternoon into this evening. A weak cold front
will stall just south of the NE/KS border this morning. The front
will remain nearly stationary this afternoon as surface low pressure
deepens across northeast Colorado. Low-level flow will become east-
southeast to the north of the front across central into western
Nebraska by this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will combine
with very warm surface temperatures and low-level moisture/humidity
to create a high CAPE environment by mid to late afternoon. Surface
based CAPE values will range from around 2500 J/KG west of Hwy 83 to
over 4000 J/KG east of Hwy 83 where low-level moisture/humidity will
be a bit better. As a weak disturbance approaches the area from the
west this afternoon, scattered storms should develop within a
favorable low-level upslope environment across portions of the
western Sandhills and the Panhandle. Flow aloft is westerly on the
northern periphery of upper level high pressure located across the
southern plains. 0-6km shear increases with northward extent,
ranging from around 30 kts across southwest Nebraska to 45 kts
across northern Nebraska. Boundary layer will become well mixed by
late this afternoon. The overall environment will be supportive of
strong to potentially severe outflow winds, with hail a secondary
concern. Supercell structures will be possible, especially farther
northward where shear will be stronger. These would pose more of the
hail threat in addition to the wind threat. Storms will tend to grow
upscale this evening across portions of the Sandhills into southwest
Nebraska as they move eastward. Wind would be more of a concern at
that point before storms exit the area by late evening.

Storm chances will decrease as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level ridging/rising heights build across the Rockies and
plains. Otherwise another hot day today. Near heat advisory criteria
could be briefly met across eastern portions of north central and
central into southwest Nebraska. Not however expecting widespread
100+ degree apparent temperatures and will forgo any heat headlines
at this time. Tuesday and Wednesday will see high temperatures
settle back a few degrees with upper 80s to lower 90s common.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Another hot day is expected Thursday with upper level ridging
anchored across the Four Corners region, extending northeastward
across the plains. Then as a strong shortwave crosses southern
Canada Thursday night into Friday, a cold front will be driven
southward into the area. A somewhat cooler day with highs in the 80s
is expected Friday. Cooler yet as we head into the weekend. Moist
southeast low-level flow developing Friday and lasting through the
weekend should spell at least a chance for showers and
thunderstorms...as northwest flow aloft increases between upper
level high pressure to our southwest and an upper low pressure
situated to our northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
western Sandhills and portions of the Panhandle late this
afternoon. These will move eastward across the area this
evening. Strong winds will accompany some of the storms. VFR
conditions will prevail outside storm activity.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor