565
FXUS63 KLBF 090902
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
302 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of moderate rainfall north of Highway 2 continue
  moving north and exit the region early this morning.
  Otherwise, periods of lighter precipitation continue across
  all of central and western Nebraska thorugh this afternoon.

- Quite cool today with temperatures remaining well below
  normal.

- Conditions improve by Sunday with dry weather and temperatures
  generally at or slightly above normal through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Well developed vertically stacked low pressure is clearly evident in
early morning water vapor imagery along the CO/KS border with a
pronounced dry slot pushing up into Nebraska as it wraps in to the
circulation. Radar imagery shows the impact of the dry slot as
precipitation has become quite spotty along and south of Highway 80
but occasionally heavy rainfall continues north of Hwy 2. With the
slow approach of the low from the southeast, expect the heaviest
precipitation will follow the most robust synoptic lift and spiral
off to our north and west, leaving abundant low level moisture,
lighter precipitation, and some patchy fog across central and
western Nebraska through today. Given the abundant cloud cover and
precipitation today there will be little rise in temperatures,
making for a c hilly day with afternoon readings only in the 40s.

While precipitation may become more intermittent with time, do not
expect any significant improvement in conditions until the center of
the low crosses the region and moves off to our east this evening.
Will structure the forecast along the lines of the synoptic forcing
and indicate diminishing showers through tonight. However there is a
fly in the ointment as substantial low level moisture will linger
across Nebraska through daybreak Sunday and this may keep some
sprinkles and/or drizzle around much longer into Sunday night.
Probabilistic guidance also indicates a better than even chance for
non-zero precipitation amounts through Midnight tonight north of
Interstate 80 and particularly north of Highway 2, though the
probability for 0.01" or more drops significantly to generally 20% or
less so clearly indicating any precipitation will be very light.
Will revisit this later today when new data becomes available to see
if this signal is still present before trending things wetter
overnight Saturday night. Cooler temperatures work in behind the
departing low with readings by daybreak Sunday generally ranging
from the lower 30s west of Highway 83 to the upper 30s to the east.
Ridging aloft bring warmer and more pleasant conditions for Sunday
with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement in developing a drier
low amplitude progressive pattern over the US through next week with
quiet conditions and temperatures generally at or slightly above
normal. An upper trof will push a low through the High Plains with a
trailing cold front crossing Nebraska Tuesday night. Moisture is
limited and probabilistic guidance continues to show a dry trend in
our neck of the woods with only a 30 percent chance for any
measurable precipitation limited to eastern Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Periods of rain showers will continue into the overnight,
especially over northern Nebraska. Ceilings will fall to MVFR,
then approach IFR levels toward daybreak Saturday. Winds will be
northeasterly tonight and may become gusty with speeds
approaching 20 to 30 KTS. Look for winds to diminish on
Saturday, but remain from the northeast at 10 to 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Buttler