114
FXUS63 KLBF 300519
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon into
   tonight due to gusty southerly winds and low humidity, and
   also tomorrow, due to strong and gusty northerly winds, and
   very low humidity.

-  Light winds and clear skies behind a cold frontal passage
   will lead to temperatures falling into the 30s Tuesday
   morning. Though dry air will suppress frost formation, lows
   in the low 30s are possible across the northwest Sandhills.

-  Dry and warm conditions persist through next weekend, This
   may lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather nearly
   each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the remainder of this
afternoon through tonight into Monday across the Sandhills into
northern Nebraska. Southerly winds tonight across north central
Nebraska will gust to 30 mph at times. A cold front will move
into the northwest Sandhills prior to 12Z, with winds turning
northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Lows tonight will be mild from the
mid 50s to around 60. Humidity recovery will be poor at only 3
to 50 percent across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska where
the Red Flag Warning remains in effect.

Monday, the cold front will quickly progress southward and
should move the forecast areas by 18Z. A very dry airmass behind
the front will quickly lower dewpoints into the upper teens to
around 20. Despite highs noticeably cooler in the 70s, critically
low humidity will occur across the area. Combined with
northerly winds gusting to 30 to 40 miles per hour, a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for the entire area. Any fires that
start may spread rapidly and become very difficult to control.

Monday night, northerly winds will remain gusty through sunset,
then will quickly diminish overnight. The Red Flag Warning
remains in effect until 9 pm CDT, though humidity recovery will
remain poor at only 45 to 60 percent. A 1030mb surface high will
become centered over western Nebraska overnight. This, and the
very dry air in place will allow for lows to fall into the 30s
most locations, with low 30s likely across the northwest
Sandhills. Won`t see any frost formation with the very dry air
in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Dry conditions will persist through next Sunday, as upper level
ridging persists across the Western and Central U.S. After
seasonable highs in the upper 60s to around 70 Tuesday, another
warmup into the upper 80s Wednesday. A cold front Wednesday
night, to bring cooler highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday.
Back into the 80s Saturday. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions to exist each day. Will continue to closely
monitor for the threat for critical fire conditions for middle
to late week, with the timing and positioning of frontal
boundaries largely determining the areal extent of any threat.
Wednesday looks to have the best overlap of very warm and very
dry conditions as of now, though winds may remain weak enough to
avoid more widespread fire concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

A powerful Pacific cold front moving through MT will reach nwrn
Nebraska before sunrise and swrn Nebraska by mid to late morning.
Winds of 36020G32KT will develop with the passage of the front.
Ahead of the front LLWS from the south will gradually veer and
become westerly with the approach of the front. There are no
other flight concerns overnight, Monday and Monday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue today and tomorrow
across all of western and north central Nebraska.

For remainder of today into tonight: south winds 15 to 30 mph,
with temperatures warming to 90 to 95 degrees this afternoon.
Lowest afternoon humidity around 12-15% across much of the
Sandhills and northern Nebraska, leading to critical fire
weather conditions. The greatest threat today will be west of
HWY 83 and north of I-80. Exceptionally poor humidity recovery
of 35-50% across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska.
Winds will remain gusty from the south tonight and a wind shift
from southwest to north is expected by 12Z tomorrow morning.
For this reason, the Red Flag Warning has been lengthened to
remain in effect through the entirety of the overnight hours
across the Panhandle and Sandhills.

For tomorrow: The cold front will quickly push through the entire
area by late tomorrow morning, with very dry air moving in
behind the front. Though temperatures will be cooler tomorrow
in the 70s the much drier air will lead to humidity values of
12-15% across all of western and north central Nebraska. This,
combined with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting as high as
40 mph, will lead to widespread critical fire conditions
tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Fire Zones 209, 210 and 219 are
added to the Red Flag Warning beginning 17Z through 02Z Monday
evening. Poor overnight recovery is expected again tomorrow
night into Tuesday morning (45-60%) though winds quickly weaken
from the north after sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ209-210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg