886
FXUS63 KLBF 222048
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
248 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue through Thursday morning across the region with
the highest accumulations of up to 2 inches across Sheridan county
and the Pine Ridge.

- After a brief cool down on Thursday, seasonal temperatures return
on Friday.

- Light snow will impact portions of the Panhandle and southwest
Nebraska Friday night into Saturday with accumulations less than an
inch at this time.

- Quiet conditions and a warming trend is expected on Sunday through
the middle of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Snow showers will continue through Thursday morning as a series of
shortwaves push across the High Plains. Precipitation this afternoon
and early evening will be enhanced by the higher terrain of the
Black Hills creating a region over northwest Nebraska (including
Sheridan county) that may receive higher snowfall totals. Minor
instability across this region will provide an environment favorable
for some more convective snow showers (as is apparent on the latest
radar imagery) as well as possible snow squalls. Although,
confidence still remains low in squall development, there is enough
support to at least mention the possibility. One thing that is for
certain, the window of highest instability along with the best
potential for convective showers/snow squalls remains limited with
probabilities diminishing quickly after sunset. Snow will then
become more stratiform in nature, widespread, and gradually spread
eastward across northern Nebraska.

While grand totals for snow will generally be between a half inch
and 1 inch, those areas that see a convective snow shower as well as
areas across the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge could see up to 2
to 2.5 inches. Latest probabilities support the locations to see the
greatest snow being across the Pine Ridge region where there is
indications of a small and narrow area of a 50% probability of
seeing greater than 2 inches of snow in central Sheridan county. To
make matters worse, northwest winds will continue to gust up to 20
to 25 mph into the overnight. Even though snow totals will be light,
these stronger winds combined with more intense showers will cause
visibility restrictions across the region not only this afternoon
but into tonight as well as travel difficulties. Use caution if
travel is necessary across northern Nebraska tonight and into
Thursday morning. Snow potential will come to an end Thursday
morning as a brief quieter weather pattern begins to set up over the
region.

Upper level ridging will build across the western US on Thursday
allowing surface high pressure to remain in place across the Great
Plains through Friday. While conditions will be dry, a cooler
airmass will push into the region on Thursday. Strong upper level
northwest flow will push 850mb temperatures in the -17 to -10 C
range allowing surface lows to only rise into the 20s on Thursday.
Minimum temperatures will also drop into the single digits across
much of the region on Thursday night before warm air advection
returns on Friday bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures
(mid 30s to low 40s) for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025


Another round of snow arrives on Friday night lasting through
Saturday as an upper level trough pushes off the Front Ranges.
Precipitation will push into the Panhandle on Friday night and track
southeastward across portions of southwest Nebraska into Saturday.
At this time, confidence remains fairly low on the track and
strength of this system. For now, the majority of accumulations
appear to remain off to the west across Wyoming and Colorado, but
the latest probabilities suggest portions of southwest Nebraska
(generally south of US-30 and west of Highway 61) have at least a 30
percent chance of seeing at least an inch of new snow. Will continue
to monitor this system as it evolves over the next few days as
confidence continues to improve.

High pressure and dry weather will return for the end of the weekend
into the middle of next week. This ridging will bring a steady
increase in temperatures rising from the low 30s on Sunday into the
40s to low 50s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Light snow showers will be possible this afternoon and evening
across portions of the northern Sandhills, including KVTN
terminal. There may be brief period of MVFR for IFR at times
with lower cigs and lower visibilities. Winds will also be
strong across all of western and north central Nebraska thorugh
the afternoon into the early evening hours with sustained winds
of 20 to 25 kts and gust of 35 kts. Winds and snow chances will
diminish overnight. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts expected in
the morning with cigs of 50,000 AGL or higher, with VFR
conditions returning for all of western and north central
Nebraska by Thursday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez