624
FXUS63 KLBF 120812
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely today across
  western and north central Nebraska as another windy day is
  expected across the area. Widespread minimum RH values of 15
  to 20 percent are likely with locations in the panhandle being
  below 15 percent.

- Today through Wednesday will feature temperatures well above normal
  with a return to more seasonal temperatures in the 70s
  Thursday and beyond.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Tuesday night in
  the west, with chances transitioning east Wednesday into
  Wednesday night. A strong storm or two is possible with
  possible severe potential in the far eastern FA Wednesday
  night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

H5 analysis tonight features a split flow pattern across
the CONUS. Broad ridging was present over the upper midwest with
closed lows over Newfoundland and another just off the coast of
Oregon. Separated from the northern stream is a closed low over
Louisiana which has lingered there for the past 48 hours. East of
this low is a ridge of high pressure which is anchored from
Hispaniola north to Bermuda. Across the northwestern CONUS tonight,
numerous embedded disturbances were present from Oregon and
Washington, east into the northern Rockies. This has led to the
development of showers and embedded thunderstorms over eastern
Wyoming, western South Dakota, eastern Montana and western North
Dakota tonight. This activity has remained west of the forecast area
overnight. At the surface, low pressure was located over
northwestern North Dakota with a surface trough extending to the
south across western South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle and
far eastern Colorado. With the exception of some cloudiness across
the western third of the forecast area overnight, skies were mainly
clear across the forecast area. Southerly winds were still gusty in
spots and were as high as 25 to 30 MPH at Gordon. Temperatures as of
3 AM CDT ranged from 51 degrees at Broken Bow to 65 degrees at
Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Expect yet another very warm day across the forecast area, east
of a pseudo-stationary surface trough-oriented across the
western Panhandle. H85 temps this afternoon in the NAM12 soln
are running around a degree warmer at 21z this afternoon
compared to tonight`s 00z initialization. That being said,
started with persistence +2 for expected highs this afternoon,
given the expected clear skies and good mixing potential east of
the surface trough. This equated to highs in the upper 80s with
some lower 90s over northern and northwestern portions of the
forecast area. We will see yet another breezy to windy day
across the forecast area this afternoon. A nice surface gradient
east of the surface trough, along with unidirectional winds to
around h800 this afternoon, will facilitate wind gust potential
up to 35 MPH this afternoon. The winds, coupled with
temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 30s, will lead to
critical fire weather conditions across most of the forecast
area this afternoon. More about that in the fire weather section
below. With respect to winds, they do have the potential to be
lighter in the eastern panhandle (ie. closer proximity to the
surface trough). For tonight, the persistent, upper level low
over Louisiana, will migrate northeast into the lower Ohio
Valley. This will finally allow low level moisture to surge
north from the southern plains. With a low level jet tonight and
a continuation of southerly winds into Tuesday, low level
moisture will nose into western and north central Nebraska. This
airmass will not be overly moist through Tuesday, however, dew
points in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday afternoon, will finally
mitigate critical fire weather conditions across the area. By
late Tuesday afternoon, a Pacific frontal boundary will approach
the Pine Ridge late in the day. East of this feature, a low
level thermal ridge will surge north from the western forecast
area into central South Dakota. This will lead to even warmer
temps for Tuesday with most locations reaching near 90 degrees
and lower 90s over northern and northwestern portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

The before mentioned Pacific front will stall out across
northwestern Nebraska Tuesday night. The latest deterministic
GFS and NAM12 solns do develop some QPF INVOF this boundary
which may impact northwestern portions of the forecast area.
East of the front, there is a ribbon of 1000+J/kg SB CAPE which
stretches from SW Nebraska into the NW Sandhills Tuesday
evening. However, looking at forecast soundings, a strong
capping inversion will be in place. That being said, will
confine pops to the northwest Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the
Pacific front will migrate east reaching the highway 83 corridor
by mid afternoon. East of the front, low level moisture return,
coupled with temperatures in the 80s will lead to forecast
CAPES eclipsing 2000J/KG with little to no cap noted. As for a
severe threat, given the forecast moisture return and deep layer
shear of 25 to 30 KTS Wednesday afternoon, wouuldn`t be
surprised if a few strong to severe storms develop in the
eastern third of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and
evening and this is echoed by the latest SPC SWODY3 product. On
Thursday, an upper level low will track across the Dakotas,
bringing an additional threat for showers mainly over northern
Nebraska. The latest EC ensembles do have the bulk of their
members developing a quarter to half an inch of QPF for
Valentine Thursday into Thursday night so low end likely pops
over northern Nebraska appear warranted with the latest NBM
forecast. The upper level low will transition east into the
northern Great lakes Friday into Saturday leading to drying
conditions across northern Nebraska. On the heels of this
system, a secondary system will cross the central Rockies next
weekend, leading to an increased threat for precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday. The latest EC ensemble forecast,
indicates decent potential for wetting rain impacting the
forecast area Sunday into early portions of the following week
(May 19th-21st).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the region
through Monday. Low-level wind shear will continue through
sunrise Monday...as strong south to southwest winds will reside
just above the surface. Otherwise surface winds will remain
from the south and gusty though the day today. Other than a few
high clouds, skies will be clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely this
afternoon across most of the forecast area. Afternoon highs will
run a couple of degrees warmer compared to Sunday`s highs. Low
level moisture return will also be delayed until Tuesday across
the area as a pesky upper level low meanders over the southern
Mississippi valley. Winds this afternoon have a good potential
to gust above 25 MPH along and east of highway 61 this
afternoon. With minimum RH in the 15 to 20 percent range this
afternoon, decided to upgrade the fire weather watch to a red
flag warning across the area and will be adding zone 204.
Realize winds may be diminished somewhat in the eastern
panhandle, INVOF of a surface trough but wind gusts in the
western sandhills (eastern half of zone 204) are likely to hit
above 25 MPH this afternoon.

Fortunately, this should be the last day we will deal with critical
fire weather conditions for the foreseeable future. Low level
moisture return will commence overnight tonight as the persistent
upper level low over the southern Mississippi Valley, finally
migrates northeast into the Ohio Valley. Surface dew points will
begin to slowly climb into the 40s Tuesday with upper 40s to lower
50s Wednesday. This will keep min RH well above 20 percent Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temperatures will cool back to more seasonal levels
in the upper 60s and 70s Thursday through Sunday behind an exiting
cold front.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler