154
FXUS63 KLBF 071007
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
407 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Lingering rain and snow showers are possible across southwest
  Nebraska through tonight. Any snow accumulations will be under a
  half inch.

* Better chance of widespread precipitation and moisture arrives
  Friday through Saturday night. Warmer temperatures will keep
  precipitation as all rain.

* Drier conditions return on Sunday lasting through the middle
  of next week with mild temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A developing upper level low pressure system over the Rockies will
keep lingering showers across extreme southwest Nebraska through
tonight. At this time, rain will be the main precipitation type
during the day as temperatures rise above freezing. After sunset and
temperatures begin to fall, rain will change over to snow.
Accumulations are not anticipated to be more than a half inch
(mainly across Chase county).

The developing low will finally push off the Rockies and into the
Great Plains on Friday bringing the next significant chance of
precipitation to the region. This low will deepen and move
northeastward over Nebraska by Friday with precipitation starting
south of I-80 by late Friday morning and overspreading the region
from south to north throughout the day. Latest model soundings show
a much warmer airmass being associated with this system which will
keep precipitation as all rain throughout the duration of the event.
Limited instability will also keep the thunderstorm potential low to
non-existent. Therefore, with QPF amounts in the 0.75 to 1 inch
along and south of the I-80 corridor, the main threats will be
locally heavy rainfall leading to some minor flooding of ditches and
low-lying areas. Even then, this event will be spread out over
almost 36 to 48 hours which should keep any widespread minor
flooding concerns to a minimum. That being said, latest
probabilities show 24 hour QPF over an inch (up to 1.40 inches)
south of I-80 in the 90th percentile. In addition, across western
and southwest Nebraska, latest EFI remains high (0.8 to 0.9) with
SoT also high (over 1) increasing confidence that a more extreme QPF
event may occur. Therefore, would not be surprised to see QPF values
increase in the next day or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024


Upper level ridging will begin building into the region by Saturday
night as the low pressure system moves off to the northeast. Much
drier conditions will return for the end of the weekend and into the
middle of next week. In addition, milder temperatures (even above
normal) will return on Sunday. With 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to
18 C range, surface highs will easily rise into the upper 50s to low
60s for Sunday through Tuesday. Normal highs this time of year are
in the mid 50s (northern Nebraska) to the upper 50s (south of I-80).
Low temperatures will also remain above normals (mid 20s) in the low
to mid 30s through next Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Snow will persist for a few more hours across southwest
Nebraska, largely waning prior to sunrise. Low stratus with
MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue for southwest Nebraska terminals
into early this afternoon, with some expansion expected north
and eastward this morning. A gradual improvement to VFR is
then expected this evening, though terminals near and west of an
OGA to IML line may not see category improvements prior to the
end of the valid period.

Light north winds transition west-southwest into this afternoon,
at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Brown