589
FXUS63 KLBF 262134
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
434 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog expected tonight into Sunday morning across southwest into
  central Nebraska along with a chance for rain showers.

- The potential for isolated to scattered severe storms late
  Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Warmer Wednesday through Saturday. A chance for showers and
  thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and surface
low pressure across the Rockies will maintain gusty southerly
winds tonight. Low clouds will extend across a large part of the
country from the Northern and Central Plains south into the
Southern Plains tonight. Lows tonight will remain steady from
45 to 50 across the area. A closed upper low over Nevada tonight
will keep a southwesterly flow aloft over the region. Low
chances for showers (20-40 percent). Models don`t generate much
precipitation, only a trace to a few hundredths. Fog is expected
across southwest into central Nebraska tonight through mid
morning Sunday. While dense fog is not expected, visibilities as
low as a mile are likely.

Sunday, there is the potential for isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms beginning late afternoon into the evening hours.
A deep upper trough will advance toward the Four Corners region
late afternoon. This will produce deep cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. Abundant moisture will be in place across
Nebraska. Stratus will be in place across during the morning,
with clearing across the west and southwest in the afternoon.
The stratus and low-level moisture will limit highs to the upper
60s to lower 70s central and eastern areas, while the western
Sandhills and far southwest warm into the upper 70s. Strong
heating will occur across eastern Colorado and western Kansas
into far southwest Nebraska as highs reach the low to mid 80s.
Surface winds are shown be be backed to a more southeasterly
component in southwest Nebraska. Low- level convergence and a
potentially strong differential heating boundary will develop.
this may result in isolated severe storm initiation by late
afternoon Sunday. However, while confidence in occurrence of
storms as well as locations may be low, this will likely be an
impactful event should storms develop. Deep layer shear from 35
to 45kts and surface-based CAPEs from 2000-3000 J/KG are shown.
This will sufficient for supercells with all modes of severe
weather possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a
tornado or two near any storms with localized backed surface
winds. The latest CAMs also indicate storms in the western
Panhandle moving into the northwest Sandhills mid to late
evening. Storm chances will become focused across central and
north central Nebraska after midnight, with the severe threat
expected to diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough will move through during
the morning, bringing gusty westerly winds to 20 to 35 mph in
the afternoon. Much drier air with dewpoints falling into the
upper 20s to mid 30s will combine with the strong winds to
create elevated fire weather conditions.

Cooler Tuesday in the mid 60s behind the cold front. Highs
mainly in the 70s Wednesday through Saturday, with low chances
for showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday and again Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A stratus deck will continue to linger across much of western
and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. MVFR to IFR
conditions will be expected with LIFR conditions possible
tonight into overnight as patchy fog and drizzle may develop and
drop visibilities. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be
possible this afternoon into the evening. Winds will remain
breezy out of the southeast around 15 to 20 kts with gust up to
30 kts. Showers and a few storms may develop across the
northwest late afternoon as a cold front moves in and an upper
trough crosses the Northern Plains. Showers and a few
thunderstorms Monday night across the north central.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez