633
FXUS63 KLBF 150331
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
931 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally fair skies and seasonable temperatures through the
weekend, with some gusty winds at times

- Strong storm system spins up on the Great Plains beginning Monday,
resulting in moisture for Nebraska, possibly through Thursday

- First wave of precip will likely be rain, but subsequent moisture
midweek will likely be snow. Greatest potential for wintry impacts
lies across northern Nebraska

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

This evening and tonight... The surface trough trails out and the
cool front remains west of the forecast area, leaving much of the
influence from the Central US surface high. A subtle mid-level
shortwave brushes the northern reaches of the CWA overnight, but
with limited low level forcing and moisture, the only response will
likely be increased cloud cover. The return of southeast flow at H85
will spurn modest warm air advection overnight, approx 2-3C warmer
than last night. With mostly clear skies remaining for the majority
of the area and generally light surface winds, the setup should
encourage efficient decoupling. The min temp forecast attempts to
split the difference between the effects of warm air advection and
radiational cooling. The result in mid to upper 20s, which falls in
the lower quartile of the NBM envelope, but stays above most MOS
guidance.

Tomorrow... The Great Lakes upper ridge amplifies while the Western
US trough digs into the Great Basin, resulting in steeper southwest
flow aloft for Nebraska. The surface high drifts east into the Ohio
Valley, while a series of surface lows develop near the lee of the
Rockies. Southerly low level flow strengthens as the pressure
gradient tightens. Fair skies should continue, although some upper
level moisture and mountain waves stream overhead. Cool air
advection actually takes over at H85 as air gets recycled and temps
drop back below 10C. Used a general model blend for max temps as the
NBM envelope was very narrow, primarily centered around the upper
50s. A larger temp gradient will likely set up tomorrow night as
flow remains a bit stronger amid a 50 kt low level jet. Mostly clear
skies and lighter winds to the west will allow temps to drop below
freezing, while central Neb may hang around 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Seasonable weather rounds out the weekend despite the cool front
passage. The lack of low level moisture will keep precip chances at
bay, for the time being anyway. The more active setup begins Monday
as a closed upper low ejects onto the Great Plains and an associated
surface low cuts northeast toward the Midwest. Discrepancies exist
in the longer range solutions, but there`s a possibility of a double
barrel of closed lows over the Plains midweek as the main trough
digs to the Rio Grande Valley. Overall, precipitation may be the
most widespread and/or consistent for Nebraska on Monday as
temperatures stay warm enough for rain. As the week wears on, temps
take a dive with blustery northwest flow taking over. Fairly good
agreement exists with H85 temps falling and staying below 0C by
Tuesday evening, helping signal the switch from rain to snow. Prelim
highs on Wednesday are even in the 30s. Thermal profiles throughout
the column would suggest bouts of increased lift/forcing and greater
saturation in the DGZ, possibly leading to scattered snow showers
and perhaps a primary deformation band somewhere on the northern
Plains. Current NBM data suggest a low end potential (<25%) of
accumulating snow of 1"+, but climate ensembles show there`s a non-
zero chance of more anomalous precip, primarily in the north. ECM
EFI shows little confidence (<50% EFI), but a signal of greater snow
(SoT 1+). This system will need to be monitored as it draws
nearer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected across western and north central
Nebraska the rest of tonight through Friday. Winds will shift
to the southeast on Friday, with gusts near 25 kts during the
afternoon hours. Low-level wind shear will become a concern
Friday night.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Taylor