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FXUS63 KLBF 021127
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
527 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild temperatures are expected this week with near
  critical fire weather conditions expected Sunday and Tuesday.

- Dry conditions are expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over Saint Louis
MO. A trough extended south of this feature into the lower
Mississippi Valley. West of this feature, high pressure was located
over southern California and southwestern Arizona. A ridge extended
northeast of this feature into western Ontario. Northwest of the
high, a broad area of low pressure was present over Alaska and NW
Canada. A trough extended into the Gulf of Alaska. Another feature
of note tonight was the strong shortwave, centered over southeastern
British Columbia and southern portions of Alberta. At the surface
tonight, low pressure was centered over southern Saskatchewan. A
surface trough extended south of the low into eastern Montana and
northern Wyoming. A cold front extended southwest of this feature
into northwestern Montana and central Idaho. Overnight, skies were
clear and temperatures as of 2 AM CST ranged from 28 degrees at
Grant to 43 degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

The ridge across the northern plains, will break down beginning
this morning, as the shortwave over southwestern Canada,
migrates east. Very warm air in association with the ridge, will
track into western and north central Nebraska this morning. H85
temps will begin to cool across northern Nebraska midday and
will peak during the early afternoon hours across central and
southern portions of the forecast area. Highs this afternoon
will reach the upper 60s in the northeast with 70s elsewhere.
Some upper 70s are possible across far southwestern areas. With
temperatures in the upper 70s and dew points in the upper 20s
this afternoon, minimum RH will approach 15 percent in the
southeastern panhandle and far southwestern Nebraska. Looking at
the latest high res HRRR, winds appear to peak around 18z today
and this is in agreement with the latest NAM12 soln. Winds then
decrease into the afternoon hours. As for peak gusts, a blend
of NBM and the 90th percentile of the NBM yields wind gusts
around 25 MPH in Deuel and Garden counties. These winds peak
around 18z then steadily fall into the mid and late afternoon
hours. Further east, wind speeds appear to trend downward
approaching North Platte and locations east of the panhandle
where gusts up to 20 MPH appear plausible. That being said, will
forgo fire headlines and continue to hit the near critical
verbiage in the HWO and FWF. The shortwave over south central
Canada, will migrate southeast into northern Minnesota and the
northern Great Lakes overnight. This feature will force a cold
front through the forecast area this evening, clearing the
forecast area overnight. Overnight lows will reach the upper 20s
in the west, to the mid 30s in the east. On Monday, surface
high pressure will build into northern, then central Nebraska.
Winds will be fairly light on Monday, leading to limited mixing
and highs in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Temperatures will warm into the 70s on Tuesday south of a quasi
stationary frontal boundary anchored over South Dakota. South
of the front, west winds may become gusty, especially over the
western half of the forecast area. With forecast minimum RH of
15 to 20 percent in SW Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, near critical
fire weather conditions appear possible especially over far SW
Nebraska and the SE Nebraska Panhandle. These areas could see
the best potential of hitting 25+ MPH wind gusts per the latest
NAM12 bufkit sounding data from KOGA and KIML. A weak cool front
will push through the area Tuesday night leading to highs in
the upper 50s to around 60 for Wednesday. This will be followed
by highs in the 60s for Thursday and Friday. Late in the week,
ridging will become more amplified across the western quarter of
the CONUS. This will lead to northwesterly flow aloft across
the northern Rockies and central plains. On Friday night, a
decent upper level disturbance and clipper system, will track
from the Canadian Rockies into the Dakotas. The deterministic
GFS and EC solns do develop some light precipitation across the
area Friday night into Saturday. However the EC ensemble
forecast has very few members with measurable pcpn Friday night.
Also the latest NBM has less than a 10 percent chance of
measurable pcpn Friday night across northern Nebraska. The
latest NBM gridded data came in dry with tonight`s run. Given
the low probabilities noted with the NBM ensembles, will forgo
mention of precipitation Friday night into Saturday with this
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Skies will be mainly clear across western and north central
Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Winds will begin the forecast
period from the southwest, with a shift to the northwest and
north by late this afternoon. Some wind gusts may approach 20 to
25 KTS generally west of a KVTN to KLBF line this afternoon.
Winds will then diminish to under 10 KTS after 00z Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler