104
FXUS63 KLBF 061104
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues for the next 7 days.

- A gradual warming trend will occur today peaking into the
  upper 80s to around 90 by Thursday and Friday. This will be
  followed by a weak cold front and slightly cooler highs in the
  70s Saturday.

- Dry air will persist across western and north central Nebraska
  until a cold front arrives next Saturday. Afternoon humidity
  will fall to 15 to 25 percent today through Friday and
  elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the
  region.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Surface high pressure over Montana extends southward across
Wyoming into Colorado and Nebraska. The surface front currently
extends from Liberal Kansas through Columbia Missouri. Skies
were clear throughout the region, except for overcast skies from
eastern North Dakota into the northern half of Minnesota. This
was a result of a closed low tracking across southwestern
Ontario. Influenced by surface high pressure, temperatures
across western Nebraska ranged from 35 at Gordon to 46 at
Ainsworth and O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The surface high center will move into the Mid Missouri Valley
later this afternoon. This will keep winds light and variable
across west central and southwest Nebraska, to light northeast
across the northeastern zones, with a light south winds
developing across the eastern panhandle this afternoon. With
winds light and mixing limited, used the latest NBM for highs
which range from the upper 60s far northeast to mid 70s far
west and southwest. As was the case on Saturday, a hazy sky is
expected across portions of the panhandle into southwest
Nebraska this afternoon and evening from existing wildfires in
Wyoming.

For lows tonight, went a few degrees cooler than the NBM
incorporating a MET/MAV blend from lows from 36 to 43 degrees.

On Monday, a mid level disturbance will drop southeast across
the area, as an inverted surface trough moves from the panhandle
into southwest Nebraska. The latest runs of the HRRR indicate
smoke from the wildfires in Wyoming to increase from the
panhandle in the morning into southwest Nebraska in the
afternoon. This includes the mention of definite haze and
patchy smoke. Followed the NBM for highs, as the MAV guidance
looked a few degrees too warm. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph
ahead of the surface trough through the day, with winds veering
to the west and northwest across the western Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

An upper level ridge will persist from the southwestern U.S
across the Central and Northern Plains through Friday. ECMWF EFI
SOT >0 by Thursday and even >0 to 1 by Friday. Highs by Thursday
and Friday are forecast in the upper 80s to around 90, with the
potential for record highs possible. The record high at North
Platte is 93 Thursday and 94 Friday, and 95 and 94 at Valentine.
Also of note, forecast highs are 20 to 25 degrees above normal
both days.

An upper trough moving from Manitoba into Ontario Friday into
Saturday should bring a weak cold front into the region Friday
night for "cooler" highs in the 70s Saturday. The extended
forecast continues to remain dry. Elevated fire weather
conditions will exist Tuesday through Friday. Details can be
found in the Fire Weather section below.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Winds remain light and variable at 10 kts or
less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A hazy sky is expected across portions of the panhandle into
southwest Nebraska this afternoon and evening from existing
wildfires in Wyoming. The latest runs of the HRRR indicate
smoke from the wildfires in Wyoming to increase Monday from the
panhandle in the morning into southwest Nebraska in the
afternoon. This includes the mention of definite haze and
patchy smoke.

No strong weather systems present an obvious signal for
critical fire weather conditions today through next Saturday.
Winds today, Tuesday and Wednesday will be light, except on
Monday when southerly winds may gust to 20 mph. Thursday and
Friday will be days to watch. Southerly winds Thursday and
southwesterly winds Friday may gust to 25 mph or stronger.
Afternoon humidity today through Friday will range 15 to 25
percent. A weak cold front should move into the region Saturday
with cooler highs in the 70s and increasing humidity.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the
region until Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg