494
FXUS63 KLBF 161755
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening
  along a corridor from SW Nebraska into the central and
  eastern Sandhills.

- Other than a minor threat for light precipitation over northern
  Nebraska Saturday, conditions will be dry through Monday.

- Next threat for precipitation will be Monday night in
  association with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

H5 analysis tonight had a highly amplified pattern across the
CONUS. High pressure was located over Arkansas with a ridge
extending north into central Manitoba. East of the high, a
trough of low pressure extended from eastern Quebec, south into
New England. WEst of the ridge, closed low pressure was located
along the Utah and Nevada border with a trough extending south
into northern portions of Baja California. East of this feature,
embedded shortwaves were located over the southern and central
Rockies overnight. The central Rockies shortwave had led to
thunderstorms over eastern Wyoming into western portions of
South Dakota overnight. At the surface, low pressure was located
over the western Nebraska Panhandle. A warm front extended east
northeast of this feature into south central South Dakota. With
he exception of the northeastern Nebraska Panhandle, skies were
mostly clear across the forecast area overnight. Temperatures
were very mild and ranged from 52 degrees at Gordon, to 66
degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The main forecast challenge
today into this evening will be precipitation chances in association
with an approaching cold front. The upper level low along the
Utah/Nevada border will quickly migrate northeast today, ending up
in eastern Montana by 00z Friday. Surface low pressure, currently
over the western panhandle, will migrate east, then northeast this
morning, ending up in central South Dakota midday. With the approach
of the upper level trough and low, this feature will slowly migrate
east today into the evening hours. By mid afternoon, the front is
forecast to be oriented along a line from far SW Nebraska into
portions of north central Nebraska. Two chances for precipitation
are expected today across the area. The first threat will begin
later this morning, well ahead of the front. Forcing for this
precipitation will arise from favorable mid level warm air
advection. Meager mid level lapse rates initially will limit any
severe threat late this morning into the early afternoon hours. As
the surface front progresses east into southwestern and central
Nebraska late this afternoon and evening, mid level lapse rates will
steepen in response to colder H5 temperatures aloft. Surface heating
will also lead to SB CAPES of 750 to 1000J/KG along a narrow
corridor from SW Nebraska into the central Sandhills. Additional
lift along the front aloft will be maximized during the evening
hours as central Nebraska will be in the right exit region of a H250
jet streak. As for the severe threat, we could see some marginally
large hail initially as storms initiate. However, as convection
takes on a more linear mode, the hail threat should shift over to a
heavy rain threat. This seems plausible given mid and upper level
winds will be parallel to the frontal boundary. PWATS of better than
an inch before the onset of convection, are near the climatological
max for this time of year. This also lends support for a threat for
localized heavy rain. With respect to precipitation chances, the
latest HiRes NAM, NAM12, HRRR and GFS solns tonight indicate a
corridor of 0.50 to 1.00+ QPF situated along a line from Hayes
County, north east to Rock, Holt, Boyd and eastern Keya Paha
counties. Along this corridor, placed some likely pops in the
forecast with the best chances during the late afternoon/evening
hours when divergence aloft (in association with the H250 jet
streak) is maximized. Overnight, the surface front will track east
of the area, quickly ending the threat for precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The upper level low, responsible for the FROPA today/tonight,
will migrate into southern Canada Friday. Westerly winds behind
the front will lead to good downsloping. Dry conditions are
expected with above normal highs in the 70s. A northern stream
trough will drop south from Montana into the Dakotas Friday
night into early Saturday. This will force a stronger cold front
through the area. Behind the front, there will be some
favorable mid level frontogenesis over northern Nebraska
Saturday, leading to an increased threat for precipitation. With
the expected cloudiness, and degree of cold air advection
behind the cold front, highs Saturday will struggle to get out
of the 50s across the area. The upper level trough will quickly
exit the area Saturday night. High pressure will build into the
western Dakotas and Nebraska overnight. The combination of very
dry air behind the exiting front and high pressure overhead,
will allow lows to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s across the
area. Based on the NBM ensembles, we are looking at a high
probability of widespread frost across the area Sunday morning.
Since this will be the first fall occurrence of this across most
of the forecast area, will message this in the HWO as frost and
even some freeze headlines may be issued with subsequent
forecast packages. Sunday and Monday will see a nice rebound in
temperatures with highs back in the mid to upper 60s. A cold
front will track across the region Monday night, bringing the
next threat for light precipitation to the area. Beyond Monday
night, dry conditions and normal to slightly below normal
temperatures are forecast with highs around 60 Tuesday and the
lower 60s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A line of thunderstorms currently located just east of LBF up
through ANW will continue to slowly shift east through the
afternoon. Impacts from this activity at either LBF/VTN are
unlikely in the valid period.

A second round of thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon across southwest Nebraska. This will likely bring
impacts at LBF with impacts possible at VTN. Have included a
TEMPO group at LBF to include the threat of IFR visibilities in
heavy rain though this should remain brief in nature. Otherwise,
outside of convection, expecting low-end VFR conditions to give
way to clear skies by early Friday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ