649
FXUS63 KLBF 302321
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather potential is of concern Monday afternoon and
  evening.

- Additional chances for scattered thunderstorms will come
  Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Drier, cooler and more stable weather is expected Thursday and
  Friday. Moderating temperatures, back to normal for this time
  of year, for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Surface high pressure is located across the Mississippi Valley
region this afternoon. Return low-level southeast flow has developed
across Nebraska on the backside of the high. Low-level moisture
(surface dew points) are gradually rising as the southeast flow
originates from a tropical airmass (dew points 75-80F) across OK,
AR, LA and eastern TX. The best low-level moisture is being
transported through western KS into eastern CO and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the Laramie
Range within the increasingly moist upslope flow this afternoon.
Shear in this area is strong with modest instability, and a few
supercells will likely result. These will attempt to move eastward
into the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon and evening but will
likely struggle. Low-level lapse rates are poor as you move into
this area with weak CAPE. Shear is strong but the previous mentioned
factors will limit storm intensity and coverage as it moves
eastward. WAA in the mid-levels then increases after dark along with
an increasing southerly low-level jet. The nose of the jet is
pointed into central and eastern Nebraska. Expecting the initiation
of elevated convection to occur across central Nebraska after
midnight...becoming more widespread and organized as it tracks into
eastern Nebraska by sunrise Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the severe potential Monday afternoon and
evening. Southwest flow aloft will increase as a shortwave
embedded within the flow approaches. At the surface, low
pressure will deepen across northeast Colorado. A warm front
will lift northward and be located somewhere just south of I-80
by Monday afternoon. Low-level moisture will pool north of the
boundary with surface dew points rising into the lower 70s. This
moisture will combine with daytime heating and steep mid-level
lapse rates...creating potential extreme instability. There will
be a capping inversion in place, but forcing from the
approaching shortwave should help to overcome the cap with
convection developing by around 4 PM CDT. The storm mode will be
supercells, with the area near and just north of the warm front
looking quite favorable for tornado development. The exact
location of the warm front will have to be monitored carefully.
Storms will likely grow upscale into more of a line/QLCS type
system as the activity tracks toward eastern Nebraska Monday
evening.

Tuesday looks much quieter as a shortwave tracks across the
northern plains and drives high pressure southward into the
region. Return southerly low-level flow develops again
Wednesday. As low-level moisture returns to the area some
isolated/scattered late afternoon convection could develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper level low pressure will move slowly move across southern
Canada Thursday into the weekend. A cold front will slide
southeast through the area Thursday with a drier airmass moving
into the area Friday into the weekend. Only slight chances for
precipitation are expected during this time along with cooler
temperatures. In fact, Thursday and Friday highs only reach the
70s across northern Nebraska. Highs do moderate some for the
weekend, ranging from the 80s across northern Nebraska to the
lower 90s across southwest Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

MVFR ceilings across scntl Nebraska will move north and expand
in coverage affecting most of wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight.
These ceilings are expected to lower to IFR in many areas after
06z. Improvement to mostly MVFR is expected between 15z-18z
Monday morning. This flight concern could affect ncntl Nebraska
throughout Monday afternoon as it pushes off to the north and
east.

The next flight concern is the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms moving east out of Colo and through Srn
Nebraska overnight, generally affecting areas along and south of
Interstate 80. Isolated showers and storms are possible across
ncntl Nebraska from this system tonight.

Another flight concern is the potential for isolated severe
storms late Monday afternoon. Areas along and south of I-80
would be most favored for storm development from about 20z-21z
onward.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC